Hawkeye Football: Addition, Attrition & 2012 Roster

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
The Iowa football roster has had it's share of makeovers to get to this point in time. I'd like to think most of the changes are accounted for an everyone we expect to report to camp in August actually makes it there.

If history is any indicator, that's unlikely, but I wouldn't expect too much tumult between now and the start of camp.

Below, you will find a graphic that lays out Iowa's expect 2012 roster by position as it relates to scholarship players.

I have taken the past five recruiting classes, as you will have players from five classes on campus at any point in time. The recently signed 2012 class is listed, as are the 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2008 classes. Just two players from that 2008 class will not be factored in due to either expired eligibility or choosing to leave early; Shaun Prater and Riley Reiff.

First the data and then the discussion. Email me at jdmiller71@gmail.com if anything seems out of sorts and I will look into it. You can also access the data in at this link, which will let you see comments related to each one of the program's defections from the last five recruiting classes.

iowaatrition.jpg


(Quick Note: I moved players to their 'at Iowa' positions for those who enrolled and spent time in the program. For instance Scott Covert started at defensive line and moved to fullback before leaving Iowa; I put him in the running backs grouping as that is what he was at the time of his departure)

Over the past five recruiting classes, Iowa has signed 113 players. 29 of those players are no longer with the program for a number of reasons, including four players never making it to Iowa due to grades; Rodney Coe, Stephane Ngoumou, Khalif Statten and David Blackwell.

That's an attrition rate of more than 1 in 4.

43 players signed with Iowa in their lightly regarded (by the recruiting services) 2008 & 2009 classes. Of those 43 players, just 25 will suit up for Iowa in 2012. Those are the 5th year senior and 4th year junior classes. Those are your upper classmen, players who typically are the leaders of your program. For Iowa, 42 percent of the players from those classes are no longer with the program. Of the 18 no longer around, 8 were on defense and 10 were on offense.

You hate to sit around on February 13th and realize your favorite football team has some pretty big challenge to overcome in its coming season, but that's the reality for the 2012 Hawkeyes. Next year's team will have some upper class leaders, but likely not enough of them. Some younger players will step into leadership roles and will see a lot of playing time, a fact that bodes well for 2013 & 2014, but the program is likely going to take a few more lumps next year before they start delivering those lumps 19 months from now.

Here is further evidence to support that assumption; Iowa will have 82 recruited athletes on their rosters in 2012, at least at this point in time. That's 82 players who were awarded scholarships coming out of high school. This does not include walkons. Of those 82, 43 of them (or 52.4% of the scholarship roster) will be members of the most recent two recruiting classes. 42 of those 43 will be first or second year players, not counting Juco QB Cody Sokol in that mix as he will be a 'third year in college' player with three years to play two. Juco OL Eric Simmons will have four years to play three and the coming year will be his second year in college.

I don't have comparative roster data to examine to see how this lines up with other programs, and most programs are likely heavy in the bottom two classes due to normal attrition factors, but this seems like a very high number that Iowa is carrying compared to the rest of their scholarship roster.

Eight of the 29 players who either didn't make it into the program, transfered or were dismissed were running backs. Given that Iowa had 17 total scholarship backs (including fullbacks), that is an attrition rate of 47 percent.

The most 'steady' positions for Iowa, the positions that have seen the least amount of attrition, have been offensive line and linebacker. Each position has a total of 17 but just two not making it all the way.

This may be an unfair generalization, but I think it bodes well for the program going forward that the two coaches who have overseen those positions (Darrell Wilson with linebackers and Reese Morgan with the offensive line) are still with the program and have been reassigned to different position groups. Wilson is now the defensive backs coach and Morgan is the defensive line coach.

I do believe some of the defensive line attrition Iowa has seen in recent years is attributable to Rick Kascenski's 'in your face' style. He left the Iowa program in December and is now with Nebraska.

I think it's a little more challenging to apply the same line of thought to Iowa's running back position, as the majority of the defections have either been borne out of off field decisions/disciplinary instances or depth chart considerations.

What does the data suggest to you? Does it adjust your thinking related to the 2012 season? What stands out? I'd like to hear your thoughts.
 
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The amount of success (or lack thereof) for this upcoming season will be directly tied to how well Iowa's senior quarterback plays, which is pretty similar to last year actually.
 
Doesn't change my thinking at all.

But you know my 3 years on, 3 years off theory with KF's Iowa teams.

As I see it, it is just part of the normal pattern.

I expect this next year to be rough and then conservative decisions to start 2013 will lead to some losses and then the team will get rolling late and turn in a very 2001 type year. And then the team will be poised to make real noise in 2014.

Really can't understand why people are surprised. It is the only thing you can really count on with KF's Iowa teams.
 
Doesn't change my thinking at all.

But you know my 3 years on, 3 years off theory with KF's Iowa teams.

As I see it, it is just part of the normal pattern.

It is the only thing you can really count on with KF's Iowa teams.

I think the hawks need to get out of this cyclic pattern and fans expecting it. Top management, KF and the coordinators, need to look at why the OL and Lbkr retention rate is higher and put that to work on other recruited positions.

It would be nice with the history to look forward and say the hawks are moving towards maybe one lesser year in a 5 to 6 year period.

Do they do exit interviews with some of the players that leave. Is there a way to recruit guys without them leaving due to homesick or doing stupid things?
 
Jon, do you have any data on how Iowa ranks against the others in the Big Ten on attrition?

I am wondering if this is a pattern being experienced across the board.
 
I don't...and it took me about 2 hours to do this for Iowa, a program with whom I am very familiar with. I dont think I could pull it off for others without taking a LOOOONG time..maybe a summer project
 
I don't...and it took me about 2 hours to do this for Iowa, a program with whom I am very familiar with. I dont think I could pull it off for others without taking a LOOOONG time..maybe a summer project

Yeah that would take some time, especially when you are unfamiliar with the team. But I took a quick glance at Wisconsin, if I am not mistaken it appears their Junior class only has 12 remaining from an original class of 21. I am comparing the eligibility tracker versus their commit page on Scout.
 
No offense Jon, but it's somewhat disingenuous to throw a guy like Coach K under the bus when he's not here anymore (and I whole-heartedly agree with you on) and not have similar words for Lester Erb who's position(s) are actually responsible for more attrition over the years than any other positions on the team in the KF era....including Coach K's.
 
From an earlier thread, and I never finished the numbers for Purdue or Wisconsin:

Iowa (43 lost- 3 early NFL entrees)/115 offers 35%
Illinois (41 lost- 4 early NFL entrees)/124 offers 30%
Indiana (35 lost- 1 early NFL entry)/108 offers 31.5%
Michigan (40 lost- 0 early NFL entry)/114 offers 35%
Michigan State (28 lost- 2 early NFL entrees)/110 offers 23.5%
Minnesota (45 lost- 0 early NFL entry)/125 36%
Nebraska (28 lost- 0 early NFL entry)/117 24%
Northwestern(9 lost- 0 early NFL entry)/91 10%
Ohio State (23 lost- 1 early NFL entry)/103 22%
Penn State (12 lost- 1 early NFL entry/97 11%

Jon also your 2010 list is missing Austin Gray and Donovan Johnson
 
"Does it adjust your thinking related to the 2012 season?"

No. I always go in optimistic. If the team comes together as a team, it will be fun to watch.

The years the team didn't come together, and improve, were difficult years for me to watch Iowa football.

I can draw no conclusion from the attrition. I have no idea what it might, or might not mean.
 
I thought Austin Vincent did not sign a letter of intent in the 2011 recruiting class as there were academic issues and he ended up at Colorado, where he recently found himself in "hot water" and was suspended.

Don't think that should count against Iowa.
 
How much of that 2008 and 2009 attrition is attributed to typical issues vs. players that were just never good enough to play D1 football? Kirk even went so far as to make a few mentions of how they needed to change the way they recruited, so he was obviously disapointed in the results of those classes. And the staff has been far more aggressive in recruiting earlier and harder since then.
 
How much of that 2008 and 2009 attrition is attributed to typical issues vs. players that were just never good enough to play D1 football? .

That is a huge factor in all this, especially the 2008 class. In hindsight of their time at Iowa that class had six "good"Div I football players that contributed to the program - Prater and Reiff, Robinson and Hampton, Ferentz and JVB and now going into 2012 as the seniors on this team only two of those are left - wow.
 
I'm with Golfer... I always start each year optimistic. There have been very few years when I haven't looked forward to the next Saturday during football season (Hello 2007).

I've been away for 26 years, but Iowa is still home to me, and always will be. Watching the Hawkeyes on TV, whether it be football or basketball, brings me back home for a few hours. Because of this, I may be a little less critical of the team, and it takes a lot more for me to get down on the Hawks. The only times I've been down are when they've put a team on the field that just isn't competitive. During the past decade or so, that hasn't been the case too often.

As far as the attrition, I think a big reason for the attrition is that we have to recruit players that are normally pretty far from home. When they're far from home, and the going gets tough for playing time or whatever reason, I think they're less likely to want to stick it out and work through it. This isn't an excuse, it's just the way it is.

Teams like OSU, Penn State, Michigan, etc, have fertile recruiting grounds and more of their players are playing closer to home. I really think the players who are closer to home are more likely to work through the tough times.


As always, I'm optimistic for 2012.
 

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