Great Loss

B

bhawk326

Well-Known Member
I know a lot of people are down today because of the loss, but I'm actually in a pretty good mood for a number of different reasons. First, the team didn't give up like they did @ ASU in 2004 when they were getting crushed at half time and didn't even show up in the 2nd half. While it would have been nice for Iowa to pull off the victory I think we saw this team has some true grit which will set them up for the rest of the season. I am completely expecting Iowa to finish the season 10-2 or 11-1. Add in the fact that Iowa only dropped to 18th despite only 2 other Top 25 teams (Houston & Cal at 23rd and 24th) losing. Now take a look at next week's slate (using AP rankings):

#19 Miami @ Pitt
#1 Alabama @ #10 Arkansas
#16 Stanford @ ND
#12 SCAR @ #17 Auburn
#24 Oregon State @ #3 Boise State
#22 West Virginia @ #15 LSU

With a 20+ point victory over Ball State, Iowa would easily move up to 15th - 17th. With the other 6 good teams in the Big Ten (yeah there are now 6 Top 25 Big Ten teams!) playing cupcakes, without any upsets next week's ranking should be:

OSU - 1st or 2nd
Wisconsin - 9th or 10th
Iowa - 15th - 17th
Michigan - 17th - 20th
Penn State - 19th - 21st
Michigan State - 20th - 23rd

Now look at Iowa's upcoming schedule:

October 2nd - #16 Iowa v #20 PSU
October 16th - #13 Iowa @ #12 Michigan (I think a 6-0 Michigan beating MSU would
probably be ranked over 4-1 Iowa)
October 23rd - #10 Iowa v #11 Wisconsin (6-1 coming off a loss to #1 OSU)
October 30th - #8 Iowa v #25 Michigan State (6-2, maybe a stretch to be ranked but is
possible if they would have won their previous 2 games including a
previous week win over a 6-0 NW)
Nov 6th - #7 Iowa @ #23 NW (maybe 7-1, their only difficult games before Iowa are v MSU
and @ PSU so if they could split them they should be ranked
Nov 13th - #5 Iowa v #1 OSU - College Gameday in Iowa City for the de-facto Big Ten
Championship!

Since Iowa is going to play between 3 and 5 ranked teams before taking on OSU they will more than likely remain the top 1 loss team in the nation in the polls. If they beat OSU, I think national exposure and beating so many ranked teams could be enough to allow them to overtake undefeated TCU for #2 and a BCS national championship spot.

For all the doom and gloomers keep this in mind ... in 2009 Iowa's ranking at 3-0 was 30th and 31st.

I really feel this year will be like 2003 where Iowa gained a lot of respect in the polls for the run the previous season and playing 5 ranked teams.
 
Boy I sure hope we can get to that national championship game, but if we're being honest, it just ain't gonna happen... and believe me, it kills me to say that because I was one of the biggest optimists in the entire Hawkeye Nation. We need A LOT of teams to lose at least 1 game, and some teams would have to lose 2 games for us to be considered a championship game contender even after we win the rest of our games.
 
DDHawkeye, I wasn't trying to insinuate that Iowa would for sure get to the National Championship but there would be very few 1 loss BCS teams that would get the nod over Iowa if Iowa goes between 4-1 and 6-1 against Top 25 teams and has a 9 game win streak including a win over #1 OSU to end the regular season. Throw in the only loss being to a 9 - 11 win Arizona team on the road and Iowa's strength of schedule is going to look really good.
 
I agree that very few 1 loss BCS Teams would get in over Iowa. But I think a lot of those teams that would get in before Iowa with 1 loss are likely to have 1 or fewer losses. I think Alabama, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Oregon, and maybe even Arizona are some teams that could get in with 1 loss over a 1 loss Iowa. Plus, we need Boise St and TCU to lose, which I feel is unlikely to happen. We have a very strong schedule, but I think when it comes down to it, they will probably vote for a 1 loss "traditional power" over Iowa, regardless of whether the computers say we have the strongest schedule, and it breaks my heart.
 
DDHawkeye, you also have to consider when the loss occurs. Let's say an undefeated Texas or Alabama team loses in the Big 12 Championship then I think a 1-loss Iowa team would get in over them. If Alabama loses this week at Arkansas and wins out then I'm very sure they would get in over Iowa.
 
Like I have said before, I just keep thinking that Iowa still has a step to take to get before the NC and that is finishing first in the pecking order in the Big Ten. While KF teams have tied twice for the B10 championship, neither time was the team the first in the B10 tie-breaking formula, which kept us out of the automatic bid.

I say start with the automatic bid and then keep the program competing for B10 championships and then go for the NC.

That being said, I have not lost a second of sleep over this game.
 
bhawk326 said:
DDHawkeye, you also have to consider when the loss occurs. Let's say an undefeated Texas or Alabama team loses in the Big 12 Championship then I think a 1-loss Iowa team would get in over them. If Alabama loses this week at Arkansas and wins out then I'm very sure they would get in over Iowa.
Click to expand...

True, I just pray that we win out and have the teams we need to lose actually lose :)
 
CAARHawk, I completely agree with that a 1st place finish in the Big Ten should be the objective even better if it was an outright championship. How cool would it be for Iowa to be the last pre-championship game Conference champion especially if Iowa was undefeated in conference play?

DDHawkeye, I'm with you, but if Iowa makes a BCS game I will be very happy. A 10-2 regular season record should do it. Even better if Iowa makes the Rose Bowl and the best if they make the BCS Championship.

Texashawk17, I'm glad I could help.
 
If Iowa wins out..... a Big Ten title and trip to the Rose Bowl are certainly amazing accomplishments.

If Iowa wins out with convincing wins at home versus Wisconsin, OSU and Penn State.....that may put Iowa in contention to play for something bigger.

I still don't think a 1-loss BCS school will get locked out of the MNC game over an undefeated Boise or TCU based on schedule and quality wins.


LSU played for and won the MNC a few years back with 1 loss. The probability is decreased, but it could still happen.

I'd be perfectly happy with a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl win.
 
bhawk326 said:
DDHawkeye, I'm with you, but if Iowa makes a BCS game I will be very happy. A 10-2 regular season record should do it. Even better if Iowa makes the Rose Bowl and the best if they make the BCS Championship.
Click to expand...

Oh, I would be extremely happy with a BCS game too. I'd love to win the Rose Bowl and an outright Big Ten championship. However, I would just feel a little (actually a lot) more satisfaction with a National Championship.
 
Texashawk17 said:
that post made my day now I have restored my faith of seeing an Iowa national title shot!
Click to expand...

^ this.

all the doom and gloom is killing me!

IF....(let me place all the emphasis on the if)....you run the table in the Big Ten, you will ALWAYS be in the conversation for the BCS Championship game. I will go out on a limb and say that there will only be one undefeated team this year (TCU) and they will NOT be in the NC game. So the teams that will have only one loss that the voters will have to chose from is: Iowa, Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Boise, Utah, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Oregon, Stanford (with potentially more).

At what point in the year those loses happen will be of great importance to voter perception. The computers should be behind us because i see a minimum 4 of the teams Iowa plays this year having 3 or fewer losses by the end of the season (Arizona will have 2 and Ohio State 1). Giving us a tremendous overall opponent record, and will have beaten 5/6 ranked teams (2/3 of them on the road) and have had only one loss by 7 points to a team that will finished 2nd in the pac 10.
 
I hear ya. So this is the defining moment of the season? Which player is going to give the Tim Tebow (I promise you no team will work, practice, play harder, God Bless) speech? Maybe Stanzi. Put his spin on it "God Bless......
America!"
 
I'm not sure what a "great loss" is but I'm pretty sure this wasn't one of them. Not only did we lose to a team that we beat offense v defense and defense v offense but we lost a running back that was a split starter in the process. The only good thing about this was it might have saved us a little in the polls losing by 7 to a ranked opponent on the road. Otherwise this loss sucked on multiple levels.
 
they did a great job of digging deep and responding in that environment, i think that is why we are still ranked as high as we are!
 
Also, after the 2007 season LSU beat Ohio State in the National Title game and LSU had 2 losses.

We need some breaks to go our way and win out but it is possible.

Going back to the 2003 season (that is the furthest espn.com goes back with scores), here are the BCS Title Game participants and their records going into the game:

2003- Oklahoma (12-1) vs LSU (12-1)

2004- USC (12-0) vs OKlahoma (12-0)

2005- Texas (12-0) vs USC (12-0)

2006- Florida (12-1) vs Ohio State (12-0)

2007- LSU (11-2) vs Ohio State (11-1)

2008- Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida (12-1)

2009 Alabama (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

So 4 out of 7 years there was at least 1 team with 1 loss in the Title game and 3 of those 4 years both teams had at least 1 loss. Something to think about, and I know it is a long shot but it has happened before. Would much rather have this loss early in the season than late.
 
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