Fryowa
Administrator
Started thinking this morning what most of us know, that if there aren't any major disruptions and if Garza stays healthy all year he will be the Hawks' new all-time scoring leader.
So I took a look at the schedule and did some napkin math as to when he'd break the record and how much margin there would be.
The biggest assumption you need to make when trying to do this is to decide where the player's PPG will end up. Garza was at 23.9 last year, this year due to teams playing him harder, tough schedule, and for sake of being conservative, I'm going to go with 20 PPG. Most of us think it could be higher, but I think 20 is a realistic number...anything above that is gravy for these calculations.
Hawks have 24 regular season games left...
Below are the top 10 all-time scorers and their point totals. Column D is how far ahead or behind Garza they are, and Column E is the rough number of games it will take Garza to pass that player assuming an average of 20 PPG. Going by this, it looks like around the Maryland/Minnesota game he should pass White, and if he does average 20 a game he'll have a good cushion down the stretch (assuming there are tournament games too).
We have to assume the Hawks will make the tourney, and for these purposes I'm going to conservatively say we win 2 games (27 games total played). Garza would need to average 16.9 PPG to pass Marble under that scenario. I definitely think that's doable assuming he's in good health and no covid disruptions.
So I took a look at the schedule and did some napkin math as to when he'd break the record and how much margin there would be.
The biggest assumption you need to make when trying to do this is to decide where the player's PPG will end up. Garza was at 23.9 last year, this year due to teams playing him harder, tough schedule, and for sake of being conservative, I'm going to go with 20 PPG. Most of us think it could be higher, but I think 20 is a realistic number...anything above that is gravy for these calculations.
Hawks have 24 regular season games left...
Below are the top 10 all-time scorers and their point totals. Column D is how far ahead or behind Garza they are, and Column E is the rough number of games it will take Garza to pass that player assuming an average of 20 PPG. Going by this, it looks like around the Maryland/Minnesota game he should pass White, and if he does average 20 a game he'll have a good cushion down the stretch (assuming there are tournament games too).
We have to assume the Hawks will make the tourney, and for these purposes I'm going to conservatively say we win 2 games (27 games total played). Garza would need to average 16.9 PPG to pass Marble under that scenario. I definitely think that's doable assuming he's in good health and no covid disruptions.
