Garza Will Test NBA Waters, Leave Door Open for Iowa Return

One one side, you have guaranteed money (if you actually get picked where you're projected). On the other side, you get a guaranteed fun senior year (if you avoid injury) and become the all time leading scorer in Iowa history. You have the chance at a conference championship and a deep tournament run (one you got robbed of this year) and you are still pretty much guaranteed the same money you passed up last year. Hell you even have a decent chance of improving your contract.

I just know a lot of guys leave early and don't end up getting drafted where they hoped, if at all. I'm sure a lot of them are still ok with their decision. But I'm sure some regret it too. A guy like Luka is giving up more than most by not coming back. I completely get it if he leaves. It would be really hard to wait on that much money and that dream. But to say "you have to leave" means you don't get it if he stays. That's being pretty hard on someone if they do in fact decide to stay.
 
#1DieHardHawk said:
Predictable and smart. There's no downside whatsoever for both Luka and Joe W to go through the process.

Both great Hawkeyes, but, keeping it real, neither likely will have a sustained NBA career. That doesn't mean they couldn't make a very good living out of basketball, but the NBA right now is a different beast. You better be highly skilled and highly athletic to stand a chance, and, even then, players need a few things to fall their way. Making a roster is a tough mountain to climb.

I could see some team taking a flyer on Luka in the 2nd round just based upon his skillset and work ethic, but I'd be shocked to see a team use a 1st-rounder on him. Could it happen? Sure, but it's very unlikely now that the NBA is a world-wide talent pool.
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Remember when you would laugh watching Luka try his ass off to get down the floor. It looked horrible. He runs so much better now. Who would have ever dreamed he would be able to do that baseline spin move that could get called for a travel half the time? The point is, he's come a long way athletically over the last year. If he makes that jump again, his athleticism will still be a weakness, but it won't be near as damning.
 
PCHawk said:
The problem is, how many are told they are first rounders compared to how many spots there are? If a player with an extraordinary work ethic is picked as a late first rounder, but feels like he can improve a lot in a year, it's far from a no brainer to come back. I just don't like the idea of saying so strongly there is only one choice. I know you're not technically calling him dumb if he decides he wants to do the opposite of you're "has to do it" opinion, but it's basically the same thing when you're that stern. Maybe you're just saying that to prepare fans for if he decides to leave. If that's the case I get it. But if not, you're pretty much saying everyone has to have the same priorities in life.
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Not what I said. I said if while going through the draft process he's told he will be a first-rounder and feels comfortable with that evaluation, most guys come out. It's more than a million dollars they won't ever get back for the lost year. The total guaranteed value of the entire contract of the LAST pick in the first round last year was more than $8M. Why on earth would someone risk that by coming back to college?

Again, there could be an exception to the rule. Can you name the players that have returned to school knowing odds are they would be a first-round pick? I can't think of any.

I'm not talking about guys who think they should be first-round picks and don't listen to advice. I'm talking about guys who get feedback from the NBA draft process that lets them know they're most likely a first-round pick.
 
And if you're interested in hearing Luka's thoughts on what would keep him in the draft, I posed that exact question to him, including if it would have to be first round, in the audio I posted earlier this afternoon.
 
I guess I am confused. Was he not suppose to test the waters and go through the process? My bad, if I assumed all of this was a given.
 
RobHowe said:
Not what I said. I said if while going through the draft process he's told he will be a first-rounder and feels comfortable with that evaluation, most guys come out. It's more than a million dollars they won't ever get back for the lost year. The total guaranteed value of the entire contract of the LAST pick in the first round last year was more than $8M. Why on earth would someone risk that by coming back to college?

Again, there could be an exception to the rule. Can you name the players that have returned to school knowing odds are they would be a first-round pick? I can't think of any.

I'm not talking about guys who think they should be first-round picks and don't listen to advice. I'm talking about guys who get feedback from the NBA draft process that lets them know they're most likely a first-round pick.
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Reading a bit on this, the first two years are guaranteed. The team has the option years 3 and 4. The 30th pick in last year’s draft made just under $4 million for 2 years. The 21st player made just over $4 million. The 20th player made around $4.3 million. It goes up after that. It’s purely academic, but there’s a chance you can do better while waiting a year. You’d first have to know where you’re projected to go, then assess your own ability to improve the next year.

It would be hard to turn down a guaranteed $4 million for the chance to make more by waiting, but there’s a risk assessment that would go on.

The truth is a lot of these guys come from financially humble backgrounds so they don’t want to wait. I don’t think Garza is in that situation. But from some who have posted here, it may not be realistic to even worry about that choice. However, I could also see some team taking a shot on him. Many of these low first round guys are bit players anyway.
 
Listening to Luka he will stay in NBA draft of just one team tells him he’s in their plans. Only takes one. Does it mean that team follows through? I’d hope so but think there is a lot of false promises with this stuff too. I’d say while Luka is saying he will come back and he would all it is going to take is 1 team saying he’s in their plans. So I’d say plan on not having him around next season.

What about Matt Haarms as a grad transfer replacement for Garza? Would be experience at that position and size.
 
RobHowe said:
Not what I said. I said if while going through the draft process he's told he will be a first-rounder and feels comfortable with that evaluation, most guys come out. It's more than a million dollars they won't ever get back for the lost year. The total guaranteed value of the entire contract of the LAST pick in the first round last year was more than $8M. Why on earth would someone risk that by coming back to college?

Again, there could be an exception to the rule. Can you name the players that have returned to school knowing odds are they would be a first-round pick? I can't think of any.

I'm not talking about guys who think they should be first-round picks and don't listen to advice. I'm talking about guys who get feedback from the NBA draft process that lets them know they're most likely a first-round pick.
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I agree with what you say there. Although there are reasons to stay like enjoy one more year and improve your stock. If you would have said that the first time, I wouldn't have said you shouldn't say blanket statements.
 
TheIowaHawkGuy said:
Listening to Luka he will stay in NBA draft of just one team tells him he’s in their plans. Only takes one. Does it mean that team follows through? I’d hope so but think there is a lot of false promises with this stuff too. I’d say while Luka is saying he will come back and he would all it is going to take is 1 team saying he’s in their plans. So I’d say plan on not having him around next season.

What about Matt Haarms as a grad transfer replacement for Garza? Would be experience at that position and size.
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Yea I would be pretty surprised if not a single team told him he's in their plans. Odds aren't in our favor if that's all he needs. The good news is, if he leaves, we probably won't have to worry about the coronavirus next year. If he comes back, there's no doubt the season gets cancelled. Iowa can't have nice things.
 
What is left for him to prove by staying one more year? Is he really going to improve over this year? This is one of the best if not the best conference in the country and he has already proven he can play with the best. If he stays and gets injured and\or has a less successful year next season then he really hurts his stock. If he is my son my advice to him would be go pro now. What's the worse that could happen either he can play with the big boys or he can't. He makes a good amount of money and gets the opportunity to prove himself actually playing pro ball. If he does well he will be issued a new contract worth more than he can possibly spend.

As much as I would like him to come back to IOWA it would be selfish on my part as a fan to recommend that he return for his senior year. Just one twisted knee, back sprain, torn muscle, etc and his stock plummets.
 
Will they actually do workouts before the draft? If they do, he gone once he shows them his skyhook.
 
RobHowe said:
First-round picks contracts are slotted and guaranteed. If you're told you're a first-rounder, you come out.
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The risk there, like every year, is when forty, fifty, or a hundred kids are told they are first rounders when there are thirty first round draft slots. Many end up not being drafted at all.
 
BigD said:
What is left for him to prove by staying one more year? Is he really going to improve over this year? This is one of the best if not the best conference in the country and he has already proven he can play with the best. If he stays and gets injured and\or has a less successful year next season then he really hurts his stock. If he is my son my advice to him would be go pro now. What's the worse that could happen either he can play with the big boys or he can't. He makes a good amount of money and gets the opportunity to prove himself actually playing pro ball. If he does well he will be issued a new contract worth more than he can possibly spend.

As much as I would like him to come back to IOWA it would be selfish on my part as a fan to recommend that he return for his senior year. Just one twisted knee, back sprain, torn muscle, etc and his stock plummets.
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Hell yea he's gunna improve over this year. Have you seen his work ethic?
 
PCHawk said:
Hell yea he's gunna improve over this year. Have you seen his work ethic?
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Of course I have seen his work ethic that's why you gotta love the kid. One hard fall and it could be all over with for him. Millions of dollars gone. Too risky.
 
BigD said:
Of course I have seen his work ethic that's why you gotta love the kid. One hard fall and it could be all over with for him. Millions of dollars gone. Too risky.
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I get that risk for sure. But he can still improve a lot.
 
PCHawk said:
I get that risk for sure. But he can still improve a lot.
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Don’t get me wrong as I want him to come back and be a part of What should be a part of Frans best team ever.

I am also afraid this Coronavirus issue will still be lingering and if there is a season it will be in empty auditoriums. I just don’t see this thing dying out by then, but a lot of things can change in seven months.

Our best hope is that the summer heat can slow this thing down considerably. If not the football season is a wash.

I hope you, your family, and your friends can safely avoid this virus.
 
RobHowe said:
And if you're interested in hearing Luka's thoughts on what would keep him in the draft, I posed that exact question to him, including if it would have to be first round, in the audio I posted earlier this afternoon.
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I listened to the part where Luka talked about that but the audio was very poor and difficult to listen to. I remember Jim Z having to tell fans to turn their radios off and listen on the phone only. I don’t know how you had it set up but it was really challenging to listen too what sounded like a lot of audio feedback noise.
 
BigD said:
I listened to the part where Luka talked about that but the audio was very poor and difficult to listen to. I remember Jim Z having to tell fans to turn their radios off and listen on the phone only. I don’t know how you had it set up but it was really challenging to listen too what sounded like a lot of audio feedback noise.
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Yes. It's recorded from a teleconference so it's not going to be high quality audio.

I listened to it and could hear well enough that I posted it. I would recommend head phones and then finding the right volume.
 
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