Future Big Ten Realignment

[okeefe4prez]

They could have a bad year or 2 but nothing like Nebraska. Those schools sit in hotbeds of talent and don't have to rely a lot on out of state recruiting like Nebraska does.

Tennessee has disappeared. Miami has disappeared. It can absolutely happen to anyone. Michigan is already pretty much at the same level of program as Iowa, so in the mind of a lot of their fans, the program is already destroyed.

 

[kameltoez102]

My kid is a seventh grader and played his first season of school ball this year. He played 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th grade tackle for a youth club here in my town. At this point I don’t see him playing in college unless something weird happens with his development, so I don’t push the issue. If I suspected he was good enough to play after high school, I’d be trying damn hard to get him to do something else. I’ve already pushed a little bit of the cross country angle (he’s a decent middle distance runner for his age) but he isn’t having it. He loves playing with his buddies too much to give it up but as long as he keeps it limited to HS and doesn’t have any concussions I’m ok. In high school football I worry more about him trashing a knee or breaking a wrist and not being able to play baseball than head injuries (selfish on my part).

I think many if not most of us played high school football and ended up fine. To me it’s once you go beyond that that it gets sketchy. Each level you move up the size and speed of the athletes goes up exponentially and (in addition to the length of time you’ve spent playing) so does your chance of dementia. There’s zero chance I would ever encourage my son to play college ball and I think that same attitude is what’s going to make the game go away.

Also, it bears mentioning that I’m in the "liberal" minority by far. Our youth football team went from 2 teams each of 3/4/5/6th graders with full offenses and defenses when my son started, to a single combined team of 5/6 playing iron man when he was done--in four years. I don't care what anyone says, football is on the way out and the mindset driving it's demise starts in elementary school parents. It will always have regional pockets of popularity in uneducated/disadvantaged/red necky geographical areas, but that's it.

I agree, the team I coached had zero head injuries this year which was nice. Last year we had two where kids missed several games but also with fewer injuries than the previous year. For the most part head injuries have not been a small issue with more of the fractures, sprains, strains etc taking kids off the field.

With that said the numbers were also down and at some point something is going to give as there just isn't going to be enough kids playing to provide players for all these teams unless they can somehow increase numbers. While I think some kids will get a chance at some bigger schools that in the past would not have even had a chance before because the numbers will be diluted where does that leave us? Ultimately are we looking at football turning into a 7 on 7 type game?

 

[HawkGold]

My kid is a seventh grader and played his first season of school ball this year. He played 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th grade tackle for a youth club here in my town. At this point I don’t see him playing in college unless something weird happens with his development, so I don’t push the issue. If I suspected he was good enough to play after high school, I’d be trying damn hard to get him to do something else. I’ve already pushed a little bit of the cross country angle (he’s a decent middle distance runner for his age) but he isn’t having it. He loves playing with his buddies too much to give it up but as long as he keeps it limited to HS and doesn’t have any concussions I’m ok. In high school football I worry more about him trashing a knee or breaking a wrist and not being able to play baseball than head injuries (selfish on my part).

I think many if not most of us played high school football and ended up fine. To me it’s once you go beyond that that it gets sketchy. Each level you move up the size and speed of the athletes goes up exponentially and (in addition to the length of time you’ve spent playing) so does your chance of dementia. There’s zero chance I would ever encourage my son to play college ball and I think that same attitude is what’s going to make the game go away.

Also, it bears mentioning that I’m in the "liberal" minority by far. Our youth football team went from 2 teams each of 3/4/5/6th graders with full offenses and defenses when my son started, to a single combined team of 5/6 playing iron man when he was done--in four years. I don't care what anyone says, football is on the way out and the mindset driving it's demise starts in elementary school parents. It will always have regional pockets of popularity in uneducated/disadvantaged/red necky geographical areas, but that's it.

It gets sketchy before that and I see it with 2 of my sons. Once a concussion happens they should be done. Also the helmets aren't that good in HS, refs aren't that good and coaches aren't that good.

Sort of digressing, I spent some time looking back at Fry's bowl game videos as well as key games. The amount of using the head as a weapon was incredible. Rather shocking.

Also noted....I never realized just how slow Bob Stoops was. Nebby in Iowa's 10-7 win wasn't really that good. Makes me wonder about other Nebby teams and how weak the schedule really was. That game was no fluke. Iowa was better by more than the score.

Also stuck me how aggressive the HF QBs were about throwing into coverage and taking risks. KF has had few qb's willing to do that and we know who they were.

That last bit of info is the key to Iowa's struggles at the running game. The passing game isn't aggressive. T time on RB's. Nebby's Craig and Rozier reminded me a lot of Iowa runners under KF's teams without an aggressive passer.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I agree, the team I coached had zero head injuries this year which was nice. Last year we had two where kids missed several games but also with fewer injuries than the previous year. For the most part head injuries have not been a small issue with more of the fractures, sprains, strains etc taking kids off the field.

With that said the numbers were also down and at some point something is going to give as there just isn't going to be enough kids playing to provide players for all these teams unless they can somehow increase numbers. While I think some kids will get a chance at some bigger schools that in the past would not have even had a chance before because the numbers will be diluted where does that leave us? Ultimately are we looking at football turning into a 7 on 7 type game?

I live in a fast growing area in the football obsessed south. This gal I work with has an 18 year old and a 13 year old. The schools her house is zoned for have grown massively over the past decade. She said 5 years ago the middle school had 4 teams, A, B, C and D. She said this year, there are not enough kids for the D team and the C team only has 18 guys so with injuries and guys missing games due to trips or for school disciplinary reasons, almost everyone has to play every play both ways. If that's happening in the South, it spells bad news for the long term viability of the sport.

 

[Fryowa]

I can't see this ever happening at PSU, OSU, or Michigan, at least over any real stretch of time.

That was my point though—no one else could ever see it happening at nebraska...it was unthinkable.

There have been other teams in recruiting hotbeds that have fizzled out too. Ask anyone in the mid 90s if they ever thought FSU or Miami would die out...

 

[ssckelley]

Tennessee has disappeared. Miami has disappeared. It can absolutely happen to anyone. Michigan is already pretty much at the same level of program as Iowa, so in the mind of a lot of their fans, the program is already destroyed.

Not even close to what PSU, OSU, and Michigan have. Tennessee does get decent recruiting classes, the problem is they are competing against schools that do much better. I'm sure they get the pick of the litter in eastern Tennessee but it's no where near the recruiting ground that the 3 I mentioned have.

Miami shot themselves in the foot with their booster scandal, the recruits in southern Florida have plenty of other options for football.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Also noted....I never realized just how slow Bob Stoops was. Nebby in Iowa's 10-7 win wasn't really that good. Makes me wonder about other Nebby teams and how weak the schedule really was. That game was no fluke. Iowa was better by more than the score.

The schedules they had were a joke. Leaving that aside, how accurate were the rankings back then? There were like 2 games on TV per week. How was someone voting in Atlanta supposed to know how good Iowa was if they maybe saw them once per year on TV.

You can see it now where basically all the P5 teams ranked 4-20 (other than Bama) are all pretty much equal. As between Iowa, PSU and Minnesota, who do you rank where?

 

[Fryowa]

I live in a fast growing area in the football obsessed south. This gal I work with has an 18 year old and a 13 year old. The schools her house is zoned for have grown massively over the past decade. She said 5 years ago the middle school had 4 teams, A, B, C and D. She said this year, there are not enough kids for the D team and the C team only has 18 guys so with injuries and guys missing games due to trips or for school disciplinary reasons, almost everyone has to play every play both ways. If that's happening in the South, it spells bad news for the long term viability of the sport.

Exactly the same thing here. In four years our league went from giving all parents the disclaimer that their son might not get tons of playing time to literally knocking on doors and calling phones to ask if they’d consider playing since we were short. That will directly translate into high school.

My son’s 7th grade teams this year had 18 kids, and five of those were from the private Christian school here in town (who have their own high school team once they get there).

After attrition his grade will be lucky to have six or seven kids total in high school and maybe three or four good enough to start as juniors.

 

[ssckelley]

That was my point though—no one else could ever see it happening at nebraska...it was unthinkable.

There have been other teams in recruiting hotbeds that have fizzled out too. Ask anyone in the mid 90s if they ever thought FSU or Miami would die out...

Florida State won't be down for long, Miami could recover easily as well. I'm not saying PSU, Michigan, or OSU can't ever have off seasons (they can and have) but it won't be sustained. Nebraska was easy to see, their home state alone cannot support a blue blood. Nebraska has to rely on out of state recruiting to sustain a high level of success. I believe they ruined that for themselves by leaving the Big 12.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Not even close to what PSU, OSU, and Michigan have. Tennessee does get decent recruiting classes, the problem is they are competing against schools that do much better. I'm sure they get the pick of the litter in eastern Tennessee but it's no where near the recruiting ground that the 3 I mentioned have.

The State of Tennessee has 11 4 stars or higher this year. 6 are going to UT. Michigan has 8 and UM landed 3. Ohio has 6 and PA has 4. Leaving aside the "recruiting grounds" point that I think you have wrong (not with respect to OSU, but for PSU and UM) you correctly identified the problem they face with nearby schools. Knoxville ain't far from Clemson or UGA. But the same can be said for the Big Ten schools. At the end of the day, if Michigan falls off, in state kids have plenty of other nearby options and OSU will certainly be waiting to pick up the pieces.

 

[HawkGold]

The schedules they had were a joke. Leaving that aside, how accurate were the rankings back then? There were like 2 games on TV per week. How was someone voting in Atlanta supposed to know how good Iowa was if they maybe saw them once per year on TV.

You can see it now where basically all the P5 teams ranked 4-20 (other than Bama) are all pretty much equal. As between Iowa, PSU and Minnesota, who do you rank where?

In that game though, Iowa was the dominant team and quicker.

 

[KCTrainer]

I happen to like the current East- West divisions even though they are lopsided, but there may come a point when something else has to be tried. Here is the scenario. 5-6 years from now Rutgers and Maryland get totally fed up with having no chance in a division with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan & Michigan State. They have been lobbying for years behind the scenes to get a little more breathing room or exit the Big Ten.

What are your ideas for Big Ten realignment with or without either Rutgers, Maryland or both. Remember that any conference with 12 teams is required to have divisions and a championship game.

A possible alignment I come up with would be North - South divisions. It would try to keep together teams that fit together geographically and are rivals.

North
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Illinois

South
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana

One designated cross over game per team:
Ohio State - Michigan
Northwestern - Illinois
Wisconsin - Penn State
Iowa - Purdue
Michigan State - Maryland
Minnesota - Rutgers
Nebraska - Indiana
Scott Frost gets his wish to play a team like Indiana every year.

I would have rather have had Northwestern than Illinois in the North, but thought that it made for too many weak teams in the South. On the other hand too many weak teams in the south might keep Maryland and Rutgers happy.

Northwestern in the south? hmmm

 

[Fryowa]

It gets sketchy before that and I see it with 2 of my sons. Once a concussion happens they should be done. Also the helmets aren't that good in HS, refs aren't that good and coaches aren't that good.

Now you're stretching.

I don't know where you came to that conclusion, but I've been a booster in town for quite a while so I see what we buy and how much we spend on it. We've (as long as I've been a middle school football player in the early 90s) had Riddell helmets in my town. For several years we used the Riddell Speed-Icon which tons of college and NFL teams use, and 2 years ago we switched to the Schutt F7 which is an amazing helmet--and also ridiculously popular with "money-no-object" NCAA and NFL teams. We had the option through our supplier to buy all 40 at once or phase it in over two years; there was a significant savings to go with the whole shot so that's what we did. They retail for around $600, in the quantity buy we came in at just over $320. Our color is solid and we did the vinyl ourselves, and got to choose how many of each size and 3 different face mask options. This is in an average-sized Iowa town between 5,000-10,000 with an average size athletics budget (ours is actually small compared to the Christian schools here).

Bottom line, every high school in Iowa I've ever come across is using a variant of the Schutt F7 or Riddell Speed series, and a big majority of Riddell schools have gone to the SpeedFlex model which is like the F7.

Saying "the helmets aren't that good in HS" is kinda bullshit and from someone who deals with it I'd say you're uninformed at best. Helmets are the absolute last place anyone is going to save costs. Get some info if you want to make statements like that.

And I'm guessing that since you know high school helmets are subpar, would you care to divulge the Iowa schools you're talking about? I'd imagine their ADs would probably like to retort. It's only fair.

Better yet, maybe you should join a booster club and see how equipment, supplies, band instruments, and travel are really purchased and paid for instead of making bad assumptions.

 

[ssckelley]

The State of Tennessee has 11 4 stars or higher this year. 6 are going to UT. Michigan has 8 and UM landed 3. Ohio has 6 and PA has 4. Leaving aside the "recruiting grounds" point that I think you have wrong (not with respect to OSU, but for PSU and UM) you correctly identified the problem they face with nearby schools. Knoxville ain't far from Clemson or UGA. But the same can be said for the Big Ten schools. At the end of the day, if Michigan falls off, in state kids have plenty of other nearby options and OSU will certainly be waiting to pick up the pieces.

That's half the number Ohio normally has. Ohio State generally pulls in 4-6 four and five star recruits just from it's home state. In 2017 Michigan produced 10 four and five star recruits and Michigan landed the top 6 (7 of the 10 total). Not to mention all the good 3 star talent each state produces. Penn State typically gets 3-6 four and five star recruits from it's own state as well. In Iowa or Nebraska those states might get 1 or 2 per year. In fact those states produce more 4 and 5 star talent than the entire State of Nebraska produces for D1 talent (2, 3, or 4/5 stars).

When you can start off your recruiting class with 3-6 four and five star recruits just from your own State that is a HUGE recruiting advantage.

 

[HawkGold]

Now you're stretching.

I don't know where you came to that conclusion, but I've been a booster in town for quite a while so I see what we buy and how much we spend on it. We've (as long as I've been a middle school football player in the early 90s) had Riddell helmets in my town. For several years we used the Riddell Speed-Icon which tons of college and NFL teams use, and 2 years ago we switched to the Schutt F7 which is an amazing helmet--and also ridiculously popular with "money-no-object" NCAA and NFL teams. We had the option through our supplier to buy all 40 at once or phase it in over two years; there was a significant savings to go with the whole shot so that's what we did. They retail for around $600, in the quantity buy we came in at just over $320. Our color is solid and we did the vinyl ourselves, and got to choose how many of each size and 3 different face mask options. This is in an average-sized Iowa town between 5,000-10,000 with an average size athletics budget (ours is actually small compared to the Christian schools here).

Bottom line, every high school in Iowa I've ever come across is using a variant of the Schutt F7 or Riddell Speed series, and a big majority of Riddell schools have gone to the SpeedFlex model which is like the F7.

Saying "the helmets aren't that good in HS" is kinda bullshit and from someone who deals with it I'd say you're uninformed at best. Helmets are the absolute last place anyone is going to save costs. Get some info if you want to make statements like that.

And I'm guessing that since you know high school helmets are subpar, would you care to divulge the Iowa schools you're talking about? I'd imagine their ADs would probably like to retort. It's only fair.

Better yet, maybe you should join a booster club and see how equipment, supplies, band instruments, and travel are really purchased and paid for instead of making bad assumptions.

I know what my son played with (2014 grad) and the JV and FR helmets were subpar. Varisty was good, but not the best at that time. And we live in an affluent district. Even the varsity was considered the 2nd choice.

You can dream it's OK up through HS all you want because that is where you are in life right now. My son was good enough to go on. He should have never played.

In case you arent informed, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...te-concussions-indianola-dying-wish/97288230/

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...ndition-cte-seen-in-hs-football-players-study

Have a nice day..

 

[ssckelley]

I know what my son played with (2014 grad) and the JV and FR helmets were subpar. Varisty was good, but not the best at that time. And we live in an affluent district. Even the varsity was considered the 2nd choice.

You can dream it's OK up through HS all you want because that is where you are in life right now. My son was good enough to go on. He should have never played.

In case you arent informed, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...te-concussions-indianola-dying-wish/97288230/

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...ndition-cte-seen-in-hs-football-players-study

Have a nice day..

My son does not play football anymore because of this. He got his first concussion in a JH football game and that was it for me.

Our equipment in class small A is not among the best in the lower levels. The HS gets the best of what we can afford and the rest goes to JV, the Junior High gets stuff they were using 10-15 years ago. It would not surprise me to see high schools dropping football.

 

[Fryowa]

I know what my son played with (2014 grad) and the JV and FR helmets were subpar. Varisty was good, but not the best at that time. And we live in an affluent district. Even the varsity was considered the 2nd choice.

So your opinion is that your son's JV and FR helmets were subpar but you won't elaborate on what they were or where they were, or substantiate anything that you're claiming...hmm...you should do the right thing and call them out maybe. I would.

You can dream it's OK up through HS all you want because that is where you are in life right now. My son was good enough to go on. He should have never played.

This statement implies that I'm showing bias and "dreaming up" that it's "OK up through HS" when I've made no bones over the years that I'd be totally fine if my kid decides not to play football, and I've said it here before that I've encouraged him to check out other options such as cross country.

Also, I've come to the table with facts and relevant experiences; you've simply made sweeping generalizations that "HS helmets aren't very good" and gone the "because I said so" route. Don't get offended, all I've done is ask you to back up your claims and you're the one who's refused--not me. It's just a matter of not spouting non-truths unless you have a way to substantiate it.

In case you arent informed, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...te-concussions-indianola-dying-wish/97288230/

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...ndition-cte-seen-in-hs-football-players-study

Have a nice day..

Now you're diverting away from the question at hand. If you'll remember (you can search my post history), I've posted several times about how football leads to CTE, I've posted several times about how I think football will go away because of a reluctance of players to get injured, and I've started threads about the topic, none of them in defense of football.

You said high schoolers in Iowa get inadequate equipment compared to what's available to them, I called you out on it for examples (you got kinda defensive), and now you're changing the subject to the broader topic of CTE which I never disputed. That doesn't work.

Have a nice day..

Thanks. I appreciate it.

 

[JRD90]

I know the logistics and politics would be a headache, but I'm surprised more A, 1A & 2A Iowa schools don't look to consolidate football teams with neighboring schools of the same size. Some schools can barely fill a varsity team using 9th-12th graders, and they just can't compete with good teams, and they get completely smoked by playoff caliber teams.

Again I know the communities would hate to partner with a long time geographic rival, but if your team is only winning 1 to 2 games per year, and getting embarrassed the other games, what school pride are you clinging to?

 

[HawkGold]

So your opinion is that your son's JV and FR helmets were subpar but you won't elaborate on what they were or where they were, or substantiate anything that you're claiming...hmm...you should do the right thing and call them out maybe. I would.

This statement implies that I'm showing bias and "dreaming up" that it's "OK up through HS" when I've made no bones over the years that I'd be totally fine if my kid decides not to play football, and I've said it here before that I've encouraged him to check out other options such as cross country.

Also, I've come to the table with facts and relevant experiences; you've simply made sweeping generalizations that "HS helmets aren't very good" and gone the "because I said so" route. Don't get offended, all I've done is ask you to back up your claims and you're the one who's refused--not me. It's just a matter of not spouting non-truths unless you have a way to substantiate it.

Now you're diverting away from the question at hand. If you'll remember (you can search my post history), I've posted several times about how football leads to CTE, I've posted several times about how I think football will go away because of a reluctance of players to get injured, and I've started threads about the topic, none of them in defense of football.

You said high schoolers in Iowa get inadequate equipment compared to what's available to them, I called you out on it for examples (you got kinda defensive), and now you're changing the subject to the broader topic of CTE which I never disputed. That doesn't work.
Thanks. I appreciate it.

You are a smart guy..thats obvious. A bit jaded. He graduatedbin 14. I dont remember the specifics. I do know they said our helmets were 2nd best at the varsity and the others were lower. I did call them out.

Boosters can be about influencing playing time. With 2 pic 6:s and a fumble recovery returned for a td in half a season we left the program.

And I have used an attorney to call out the school on another subject.

You took some liberty about what I said...

He left football and was leading the large soccer schools in the metro area in scoring ... Until another concussion which led to missing part of bb.

Btw,I do enjoy your posts even when we dont agree.

There arent many on here not defensive. Btw I have coach hs sports.. but not football. Im a guru of 1 nil soccer games and 3 - 2 baseball. Im defensive by nature.

 

[uihawk82]

The only “realignment" that would ever make sense is to kick Maryland and Rutgers to the curb, let Nebraska go back to the LessThan 12, go to a ten game conference schedule and play everybody, alternating home/away every year.

This is what the Big 12-Less than 12 does as most people know and they play the round robin 9 game schedule. This kind of schedule or an 10 game round robin with 11 conf teams, like you mention, are the only true way to find a regular season champion and 2nd place qualifier for a CCGame.

What about going the other way and add two more teams, Notre Dame and Mizzou, ND and Pitt. You could have two 8 team divisions and a home and away games with the other division. It is more likely that games in the division determine the division winner.

People think Pitt doesnt fit but they are a PSU natural rival and close in distance. Pitt has a very high level medical research school and probably other very good academic offerings.

What really makes some of this difficult is keeping Mich in the same division as MSU and OSU which Mich has been playing yearly forever as top rivals.