Future Big Ten Expansion

[eyekwah]

I'm intrigued by what the future of revenue college sports will hold, particularly for the Big Ten. I also have an interest in how things will shake out for the ACC / Big XII members. In my effort I gathered data from websites related to memberships, facilities, football attendance, football success, football viewership, and men's basketball success. Since this thread is titled "Future Big Ten Expansion" I'll keep the remarks to the Big Ten.

Adding new members will be more challenging than you might expect. The first challenge is the AAU requirement. The even bigger challenge is finding value additions. Once you add two more members it is increasingly more difficult. Below is a list of AAU members from the ACC or Big XII ranked on criteria stated earlier. The colleges with the highest rate of success are at the beginning. Obviously Notre Dame is the golden goose, after that there is a significant drop off. Also note the lack of Big XII candidates. New XII members Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State along with old members Kansas and Colorado are the only AAU members. Another anomaly is where the ACC members are in comparison. I really think the conference would have to look to the SEC conference to find a value adds, i.e. Texas A&M.

University of Notre Dame
University of Miami
University of Utah
University of Colorado Boulder
Arizona State University
University of Pittsburgh
University of Arizona
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of Virginia
Duke University
Stanford University
University of California, Berkeley
University of Kansas

You might ask what are the best available programs without regard to AAU membership? Below are the 10 best available based on the criteria in ranked order. While there is some overlap most of the list are not AAU. Once you get pass Miami the value add factor isn't too much, if at all.
Clemson University
University of Notre Dame
Florida State University
University of Miami
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Brigham Young University
West Virginia University
Oklahoma State University
University of Utah
Texas Tech University
North Carolina State University

Based on the difficulty of finding two teams to make 20 conference members I do not believe the conference will ever go beyond 20 members.

 

[HuckFinn]

Interesting stuff. Thanks.

 

[guffus]

I am still a little surprised the Big Ten added Oregon. Although an AAU member, it's adademic ranking is 17th out of 18 in the new Big Ten. Whereas Stanford and Cal-Berkley both would have been near the top of the Big Ten in academic rankings.

It's just a sign how football is now king and how much interest in football has dropped off a cliff in Northern California. Stanford and Cal both average less than 30k in attendence and that was before the Pac-12 fell apart.

Anyway, adding programs like Nebraska and Oregon show that the Big Ten is willing to add border-line academic schools if the football is good enough. So I would not necessarily rule out schools like Florida St, which currently lacks AAU, but is decent enough academically and has a strong football resume.

 

[Will C]

Get rid of Nebraska and take a better school. Also like Stanford and Cal just because they are great academic schools.

 

[eyekwah]

If you're the SEC it is not as difficult to find teams to add because they do not have the AAU membership issue. They could add teams from Virginia and North Carolina pretty easily. The odd school in this mix is Florida State. It is not AAU and Florida probably does not want FSU in the SEC. Where do they go? I could see some amalgamation of teams from the current Big XII with some from the ACC. Below is a ranked list of teams not expected to be part of the SEC or Big Ten unless Florida relaxes its opposition to FSU.

The bolded teams would make a pretty good Power 3 conference. It would be better than either of the two present conference arrangements. It might be attractive enough to see teams bolt from the SEC or B1G if the money from TV is better than what they get now as member of the XII or ACC.
Florida State University
University of Miami
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Brigham Young University
West Virginia University
Oklahoma State University
University of Utah
Texas Tech University
North Carolina State University
Iowa State University
University of Colorado Boulder
Arizona State University
University of Louisville
Texas Christian University
University of Pittsburgh
University of Arizona
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
University of Central Florida
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of Virginia
Kansas State University
Baylor University
Duke University
Stanford University
Washington State University
Boston College
University of California, Berkeley
Oregon State University
Syracuse University
University of Kansas
University of Houston
University of Cincinnati
Southern Methodist University
Wake Forest University

 

[Fryowa]

Who gives a shit about academics, lol...

This is about football. It's about money. The idea of athletic conferences is like the NCAA, outdated and useless as teats on a boar. There are much, much better ways of doing things.

We aren't in the era of amateurism anymore no matter how much the silver haired cane-waggers want to hold onto the obsolete institutions.

Football is what drives everything. Without football there's no money for golf, or rowing, or lacrosse, or baseball, or diving, or cross country, or even basketball when you consider the crazy facilities top tier programs have. Those sports would be true amateur sports without football, so maybe we should just get the NCAA out of football, and let football form it's own conferences...

Hmm.........

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Who gives a shit about academics, lol...

This is about football. It's about money. The idea of athletic conferences is like the NCAA, outdated and useless as teats on a boar. There are much, much better ways of doing things.

We aren't in the era of amateurism anymore no matter how much the silver haired cane-waggers want to hold onto the obsolete institutions.

Football is what drives everything. Without football there's no money for golf, or rowing, or lacrosse, or baseball, or diving, or cross country, or even basketball when you consider the crazy facilities top tier programs have. Those sports would be true amateur sports without football, so maybe we should just get the NCAA out of football, and let football form it's own conferences...

Hmm.........

Yea, over the past several years or even a decade, I think there is a division or clear separation between academics and college sports, in particular football. As you mention the money is really separating the two and they are really two different entities now. This at Div 1 colleges or universities now. There has never been a larger gap or division and prob will continue to get wider. The colleges are following the NFL structure. Academics now is a really separate deal.

 

[Logo]

I'm intrigued by what the future of revenue college sports will hold, particularly for the Big Ten. I also have an interest in how things will shake out for the ACC / Big XII members. In my effort I gathered data from websites related to memberships, facilities, football attendance, football success, football viewership, and men's basketball success. Since this thread is titled "Future Big Ten Expansion" I'll keep the remarks to the Big Ten.

Adding new members will be more challenging than you might expect. The first challenge is the AAU requirement. The even bigger challenge is finding value additions. Once you add two more members it is increasingly more difficult. Below is a list of AAU members from the ACC or Big XII ranked on criteria stated earlier. The colleges with the highest rate of success are at the beginning. Obviously Notre Dame is the golden goose, after that there is a significant drop off. Also note the lack of Big XII candidates. New XII members Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State along with old members Kansas and Colorado are the only AAU members. Another anomaly is where the ACC members are in comparison. I really think the conference would have to look to the SEC conference to find a value adds, i.e. Texas A&M.

University of Notre Dame
University of Miami
University of Utah
University of Colorado Boulder
Arizona State University
University of Pittsburgh
University of Arizona
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of Virginia
Duke University
Stanford University
University of California, Berkeley
University of Kansas

You might ask what are the best available programs without regard to AAU membership? Below are the 10 best available based on the criteria in ranked order. While there is some overlap most of the list are not AAU. Once you get pass Miami the value add factor isn't too much, if at all.
Clemson University
University of Notre Dame
Florida State University
University of Miami
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Brigham Young University
West Virginia University
Oklahoma State University
University of Utah
Texas Tech University
North Carolina State University

Based on the difficulty of finding two teams to make 20 conference members I do not believe the conference will ever go beyond 20 members.

I've been following conference expansion and realignment with great interest for the past 15+ years. It's always nice to find other Hawkeyes that take an interest too.

Over the past couple of years I've been reframing expansion as consolidation. The SEC and B1G are now the two preeminent conferences in college football. If we think of it this way I think it becomes a bit easier to figure out who each of these conferences may target next.

Your lists are good, in that they represent every school outside the power 2 conferences that have any real value and possibility for addition to the P2. There are however, some schools that have potential for various reasons that I'd love to see climb the ladder. Universities like Boise State, San Diego State, USF, UC Davis, and North Dakota State. None of these will become P2 anytime soon if ever but I just like their potential.

I think there are 4 schools the B1G could target that are additive at a financial level. Namely, Clemson, UNC, Florida State, and Notre Dame. This doesn't include SEC schools. There are several that would be additive but I don't think it's realistic to get any of those schools to leave the SEC. It would be a lateral move and I think any school to make a move from the SEC to the B1G would be doing so for cultural or political reasons not financial or geographic/logistical.

The B1G has set it self up to be a national conference. There are some regions it currently does not have a presence. The south, mid Atlantic, and non coastal west. I would look to schools located in Texas and anyone along the Atlantic coast from Virginia down to Florida as being possible locations for expansion. But as mentioned there aren't many AAU schools that also bring overall value. It'll be interesting to see what the B1G and SEC decide to do.

 

[eyekwah]

If you are tracking realignment you might fined what @gentics56 has to say. Normally I would not post something like this, but the guy has some credibility. Big Mountain Podcast Guest @Genetics56. I'll add some comment why you might want to listen. It boils down to the B1G adding Florida State and Clemson which are best two football schools available. In addition it gets the B1G into Florida and South Carolina. It is about 30 minutes of time.