I agree 100%.
Fran's first 4 Years
- Thread starter deanvogs
- Start date
I agree 100%.
tweeterhawk
Well-Known Member
April 2016
Circle that month now on your calendars. It will be an extremely important one for Iowa basketball and for Fran McCaffery.
if Fran manages to continue the progress of his first four years -- especially the first three -- and Iowa has not only made the NCAA tournament but made it into the second, even third, round, Fran is gold and can stay at Iowa for as long as he wants.
On the other hand, if the team falters, swoons again late in the season, doesn't make the tournament, and if Fran continues to miss out on high value recruits, the Iowa fan base will again be clamoring for a change. Even with his seeming high preference for steady mediocrity, Gary Barta will be hard pressed not make it.
This timing may actually set up well for Iowa. You gave to figure The Mayor will jump soon to the NBA. Perhaps one of his top deputies will be ready to return to the college game by then.
Circle that month now on your calendars. It will be an extremely important one for Iowa basketball and for Fran McCaffery.
if Fran manages to continue the progress of his first four years -- especially the first three -- and Iowa has not only made the NCAA tournament but made it into the second, even third, round, Fran is gold and can stay at Iowa for as long as he wants.
On the other hand, if the team falters, swoons again late in the season, doesn't make the tournament, and if Fran continues to miss out on high value recruits, the Iowa fan base will again be clamoring for a change. Even with his seeming high preference for steady mediocrity, Gary Barta will be hard pressed not make it.
This timing may actually set up well for Iowa. You gave to figure The Mayor will jump soon to the NBA. Perhaps one of his top deputies will be ready to return to the college game by then.
YOu are wrong.
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
Because you know how many hours Fran puts in compared to other D1 ball coaches??
Fran says the right things at the right time and has done a decent job so far but I think far too many on this board have crowned him as a savior and I'm not ready to take that leap after an appearance in a play in game.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The fact that Iowa was basically one win away from the NCAA's in year three, given the HISTORIC low Iowa's program was at, was fantastic.
SUre, this year disappointed...but I like Fran at the helm...and some folks forget the smoldering crater of suck the program was when he took it over
SUre, this year disappointed...but I like Fran at the helm...and some folks forget the smoldering crater of suck the program was when he took it over
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
No doubt Fran can pull a program of the gutter and did just that but whether he can take major conference program to the next step is yet to be determined.
I agree, he exceeded expectations in year 3 and disappointed in year 4.
My issue is that I think we take a step backwards next year. I don't think this team is better when you subtract an NBA caliber player.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
Not trying to cause a battle but I would like to hear any of these similar posts hinting to an unacceptable problem if and when we take a step back between 2 seasons answer the real question; THEN WHAT?
It is bound to happen sometime and does that really mean it cannot go the other way in future seasons? There is this silly notion that if you go back you absolutely are done and cannot go forward. How many examples around the country prove this thinking wrong?
I simply see this thinking as lazy and short sided.
THEN WHAT? We turn over another coach and suddenly we attract a huge allotment of great candidates beating down our door? We go after a hot candidate only to have to pony up 4+ million a year and still be turned down. We hire another Lick and no one shows up after we realize there really is no hope.
See IL's firing of Weber and their pursuit of Shaka Smart only to end up with Groce if you want reality.
The best approach is to know who you freaking are, value what you have, support the program, ride out the bumps in the road and give it some time.
I am not sold we cannot get it done over time even if we have a step back one year.
Date: May 3, 2014
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
Good post and no 1 year with a slight step backwards won't be a big deal in the big picture.
However, my concern becomes if Fran can't get guys like Huff or Atwood when the program is on the way up... It will only become more difficult.
Tough to sell on NIT and play in games when other programs can sell NCAA appearances.
That's my only point. By no means am I ready to throw the towel in on Fran. But I'm also not ready to hand him the keys for the next 10 years and I still believe the contract extension was premature.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
All valid points and I am not saying you hand Fran a lifetime contract either. What I am saying is we need to give him a good deal of leash unless there is something catastrophic.
We have no choice but to see where this goes. Turning over 1 more coach officially cements that we are a coaching graveyard and a place you cannot win. The next coach without a miracle will not be better and the prospects will only get worse.
I agree the recruiting is disappointing when we do not get who we want but Iowa City is not exactly viewed as a basketball Mecca. It has been a long, long time since we pulled in multiple great recruits (Raveling). Even Dr T struggled to consistently recruit at a high level even though so many wax poetically about it now.
Fran is trying to get us back where we are at least in the conversation and we get a few. That is a start and the longer he stays and is supported gives him time to build long term relationships through stability. That is the only way. I cannot remember the last time we got a commit from a big time player out of Chicago like Hutton. He has not signed yet but that verbal shows me more than he is getting credit for. You can him out of impatience and look out. You think you have problems now you have no idea.
We need to stop focusing on what other programs are doing and focus on ourselves. What they do or do not do has zero bearing on us. In many cases it is not even apples to apples as some of these comparison teams are not in our conference or are in a better in-state recruiting foot print or have a recent winning history. So many factors to compare.
I think this next year is a crucial one Fran's tenure regardless of the final record. It wasn't so much the bottom line that disappointed last year as how we got there. However we finish, we've got to finish tough this next year to keep program momentum. But I think there are lots of reasons for optimism despite the loss of RDM and the seniors. Woody, GO, JU, Jok, MG, TD all have room for significant upside. White is going to be better at the 4 and be a pillar to lean on. JO will be a solid shooter. The rotation will go down and have a better chance to gel over the season. For us to actually improve the record, the key is Woody becoming a consistent force. WI went from a middle of the pack team to a contender into 2014 when Kaminsky emerged after their January slump. If Woody becomes a consistent force in 2014, we could be having a different conversation one year from now.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
I hear you about program momentum but let me ask you is it really possible to keep momentum going forever? Does there not reach a point in the success ladder that any step back is viewed as a momentum killer and worrisome?
I am just not sure our fan base is realistic and because they do not or will not value what we have. I cannot tell you how many of my fellow hawk fans I spoke to who completely blocked out that we even played basketball under lick and even early Fran. When Fran provided a spark then it was 'how nice would it be if we could make a post season!'. After a little taste expectations came into play in a hurry and suddenly nothing outside of a sweet 16 was acceptable. Now an NIT is grounds for termination.
I just really question if among all the other disadvantages we have in basketball that our fan base is not at the top of the problem list. There is this attitude like turning out a consistent winning b-ball program in Iowa City of all places is no big deal. Like other B1G heavy weights are just going to slide over and make room for us at the table.
We have to take a long view and slowly position ourselves to take advantage of a slip by someone else just as it happened to us dating back 10-15 years. That is the only way but turning over coaches will set you back unless you get super lucky and strike gold on someone. What are the odds of that and then keeping that person?
I'm with specialk. We have already arrived at where we want to be. We are a team that has a ligit chance to win every game no matter who it is or where its played. We are likely done with "taking the next step". From now on we are going to have some good years and some not so good years. Hopefully we can catch some luck and have a good year the same year that the power teams have a down year.
It is still possible that we can take one more next step and get to where Wisconsin is right now but its way more likely that we are going to be shuffling around the 4th through 8th range for the foreseeable future.
It is still possible that we can take one more next step and get to where Wisconsin is right now but its way more likely that we are going to be shuffling around the 4th through 8th range for the foreseeable future.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
Really good post as well and I agree with you. If we are in the 4-8 hole most years that is still going to mean some pretty good basketball.
I would bet Dr T after the Raveling recruits was in the 4-6 hole with 10 teams most years with a few aberrations for the better and worse. That is what is see Fran achieving but now there are 4 more teams so 4-8 is the range. That is going to mean some NIT's and some tourneys with a low seed(8-11). Every once in a while we catch lightning in a bottle.
greenrocket
Well-Known Member
This is what you guys are OK with? Are you f-ing kidding me? I hope to all things holy that this last year wasn't our ceiling because if it was then I'm going to go root for Kansas and call it a day.
HawkeyeMike23
Banned
Iowa has made one sweet sixteen in the last 25 years, you should have probably started rooting for the Jayhawks a while ago.
SpecialKHawk
Well-Known Member
Yep good choice on Kansas. Kentucky might be a better selection for you. For the pro's you can pick up the Miami Heat as well. Heck follow Alabama for college football and the Seahawks for the pro's and you are sitting pretty good.
I would suggest ordering some gear from these sites;
www.johhnnybandwagon.com
www.imafrontrunner.com
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Davis was like two games over .500 in Big Ten play after Roy, Ed and BJ moved on, and I think average B1G finish was 5th or 6th.
TheIowaHawkGuy
Well-Known Member
SpecialK was being realistic. I'd agree with him. Maybe once a decade or so Iowa has a special run but if Iowa can average a low NCAA seed/NIT bid the rest of the years, that's most realistic for Iowa. It's what we are going to get being Iowa and with Fran.
