Final 8 Game Prediction

[PCHawk]

I don't disagree with your opinion of Indiana but their schedule is favorable.

@ MD
MN
PU
@ RUT
@ NW
IA
MSU

I have them down for a loss tonight and then winning the last 6. If they're not making the 3 then they likely lose to Iowa and/or Purdue because of the advantage on the inside. MSU could always get them. But being objective on a game by game basis I have them at 13-5...even though I think it will probably be 12-6. They have already won their home games with Ohio State and Maryland.

I look at that schedule and see a minimum of 2 losses and a max of 5.

 

[WindsorHawk]

If Hawks go 12-6 I would be ELATED, not give too many craps about the btt, and look forward to the real tourney.
Again, I just want a floor 4-4 finish. Last year burns too fresh....

Elated - very happy or proud, jubilant, in high spirits...

Prepare to be very happy, proud, jubilant and in high spirits.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I look at that schedule and see a minimum of 2 losses and a max of 5.

Okay. Split the difference and give me 3 probable losses. Keep in mind they already have beaten Maryland and Ohio State on their home floor...arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the conference.

 

[PCHawk]

Okay. Split the difference and give me 3 probable losses. Keep in mind they already have beaten Maryland and Ohio State on their home floor...arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the conference.

Yea their last 2 games being at home definitely helps them. It's probably best for iowa if indiana loses to Maryland huh?

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I used that generator feature from another thread and ran a bunch of scenarios. If Iowa is 12-6 they were always in the top 4 seeds. There is probably a scenario where they are 12-6 but not a top 4 seed but I didn't enter the right game by game variation to get there.[/


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Big 10 Standings

1. Wisconsin (16 - 2)
2. Ohio State (13 - 5) Defeated Indiana and Maryland based on round-robin record.
3. Indiana (13 - 5) Defeated Maryland and lost to Ohio State based on round-robin record.
4. Maryland (13 - 5) Lost to Ohio State and Indiana based on round-robin record.
5. Michigan State (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa based on head-to-head record.
6. Iowa (12 - 6) Lost to Michigan State based on head-to-head record.
7. Purdue (11 - 7)
8. Illinois (9 - 9)
9. Michigan (7 - 11)
10. Nebraska (6 - 12) Defeated Minnesota based on record against #5 teams.
11. Minnesota (6 - 12) Lost to Nebraska based on record against #5 teams.
12. Northwestern (3 - 15) Defeated Penn State based on head-to-head record.
13. Penn State (3 - 15) Lost to Northwestern based on head-to-head record.
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)

126604[/FONT]

 

[WindsorHawk]

I used that generator feature from another thread and ran a bunch of scenarios. If Iowa is 12-6 they were always in the top 4 seeds. There is probably a scenario where they are 12-6 but not a top 4 seed but I didn't enter the right game by game variation to get there.[/


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Big 10 Standings

1. Wisconsin (16 - 2)
2. Ohio State (13 - 5) Defeated Indiana and Maryland based on round-robin record.
3. Indiana (13 - 5) Defeated Maryland and lost to Ohio State based on round-robin record.
4. Maryland (13 - 5) Lost to Ohio State and Indiana based on round-robin record.
5. Michigan State (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa based on head-to-head record.
6. Iowa (12 - 6) Lost to Michigan State based on head-to-head record.
7. Purdue (11 - 7)
8. Illinois (9 - 9)
9. Michigan (7 - 11)
10. Nebraska (6 - 12) Defeated Minnesota based on record against #5 teams.
11. Minnesota (6 - 12) Lost to Nebraska based on record against #5 teams.
12. Northwestern (3 - 15) Defeated Penn State based on head-to-head record.
13. Penn State (3 - 15) Lost to Northwestern based on head-to-head record.
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)

126604[/FONT]

This would do it. I just looked to see why I never got this result. I didn't have MSU better than 11-7 in any of the scenarios I ran.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Yea their last 2 games being at home definitely helps them. It's probably best for iowa if indiana loses to Maryland huh?

I'm actually going to pull for Indiana. We still play Indiana and control our destiny either way. But we have the tiebreaker in a tie involving Maryland and Ohio State. If Indiana ends up alone in 2nd and we end up tied for 3rd at 12-6 there's a very good chance we will win the tiebreaker. I would love to see Indiana if we made it to the 2-3 game on Saturday of the BTT.

Keep in mind I agree with you. I don't think Indiana is that good. Also, Indiana would get a nice RPI bounce if they win tonight. Which means we get a nice RPI bounce if we win at Indiana. And we don't take much of an RPI hit if we lose so...

 

[PCHawk]

I'm actually going to pull for Indiana. We still play Indiana and control our destiny either way. But we have the tiebreaker in a tie involving Maryland and Ohio State. If Indiana ends up alone in 2nd and we end up tied for 3rd at 12-6 there's a very good chance we will win the tiebreaker. I would love to see Indiana if we made it to the 2-3 game on Saturday of the BTT.

Keep in mind I agree with you. I don't think Indiana is that good. Also, Indiana would get a nice RPI bounce if they win tonight. Which means we get a nice RPI bounce if we win at Indiana. And we don't take much of an RPI hit if we lose so...

All good points. The difference between bring the 2 seed and the 3 seed isn't much at all. Indiana winning might make it tougher to get the 2 seed but it makes it way easier to get the 3. Which is way better than the 4 or 5.

 

[WindsorHawk]

All good points. The difference between bring the 2 seed and the 3 seed isn't much at all. Indiana winning might make it tougher to get the 2 seed but it makes it way easier to get the 3. Which is way better than the 4 or 5.

Yep...want to avoid 4/5. Win them all and I know we're going to be the 2 seed...willing to go out on a limb.

 

[hawkinn3]

Have to adjust things to 4-4 after that MN turd.

 

[alexzelada]

So Iowa has gone 2-1 in what I think most everyone thought was going to be the final real test of the season. I had them going 0-3.. So to finish 2-1 I'm damn impressed with what I'm seeing on the court right now..


Here is how I see it playing out

Minnesota (Win)
@ Northwestern (Win)
Rutgers (Win)
@ Nebraska (Loss) Tough Team at Home
Illinois (Win)
@ Penn State (Win)
@ Indiana (Loss)
Northwestern (Win)


Iowa finishes 12-6 in the Big Ten and 22-10 Overall.. I see Iowa as the 2 or 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and go 1 and 1.. They will head into the NCAA Tournament with a 23-11 Record and receive a 6 seed..

kudos for having the balls to make a prediction

but if you're a lifelong hawkeye fan you should know that just about the time we look solid, we take a dump, usually a smelly one at home