Ferentz in Close Games: A Fair Analysis



Good analysis, but I'll play devil's advocate.

Some of those games that count as "close wins" by your criteria...should not have been that close. KFz's style of play allows more teams to stay close...including "lesser" teams. So the winning percentage of close games is inflated by us allowing lesser opponents to stay close, when we could/should have blown them out.

If you choose the phrase "evenly matched" games...you'd filter some of those wins out (UNI & Arkansas St in 2009 for example). A related stat you might want to examine along with "close games" is, wins where our lesser opponent beat the spread. I love a close win over Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. Not so impressed by one over UNI or Indiana (argueably the weakest program in the Big Ten).

So does KFz deserve credit for "close wins" over UNI and Ak State? Or criticism for not defeating them more handily?
 
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Fair comment. There is a fine line. We do play a very conservative brand of football, which causes a lot of close games.
 


I wanted to really study how Coach Ferentz has done in close games during the past 10 years. In 2010 Iowa lost several close games, and numerous people have posted this year, accusing Iowa of consistently doing poorly in close games (and thereby by implication accusing our coaching staff of doing a poor job). I was a little frustrated by these posts, because no one has really described in a precise way the definition of a "close game".

Here is my definition: Any game in which Iowa leads by 7 points or less in the 4th quarter or trails by 7 points or less in the 4th quarter. I think this is a fair way to look at it.

A couple of examples: In the 2010 Orange Bowl, Iowa leads 17-14 during the 4th quarter. Georgia Tech has numerous chances to take the lead. The Iowa defense holds, and the Iowa offense scores a late, game-clinching touchdown. That to me was a classic close game.

In 2009, Iowa plays Wisconsin in Madison and is tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter. Iowa ultimately wins 20-10. A classic close game (same applies to the Penn State game, when Iowa trailed 10-5 entering the 4th quarter, but won 21-10 with a late surge).

Based on this criteria, here is the ten year record:

2001

24 Penn State 18
14 Purdue 23
28 Mich St 31
28 Wisc 34
14 ISU 17
19 Texas Tech 16 Record: 2-4

2002

29 Miami Ohio 24
31 Iowa St. 36
42 Penn St 35 (OT)
31 Purdue 28 Record: 3-1

2003

10 Michigan St 20
30 Michigan 27
10 Ohio St 19
27 Wisc 21 Record: 2-2

2004

17 Iowa St 10
6 Penn State 4
23 Purdue 21
29 Gophers 27
30 LSU 25 Record: 5-0

2005

20 Michigan 23 (OT)
27 NU 28
20 Wisky 10
24 Florida 31 Record: 1-3

2006

20 Syracuse 13 (OT)
27 ISU 17
28 Indiana 31
24 N. ILL 14
21 Wisky 24
24 Texas 26 Record: 3-3

2007

13 Iowa St 15
13 Wisky 17
10 Illini 6
34 Mich St 27 (OT)
21 Gophers 16 Record: 3-2

2008

20 Pitt 21
17 NU 22
13 MSU 16
24 ILL 27
24 Penn St 23
22 Purdue 17 Record: 2-4

2009

17 N. Iowa 16
21 Penn St 10
24 Ark St 21
30 Mich 28
20 Wisky 10
15 MSU 13
42 Ind 24 (trailed 24-14 in 4th qtr)
10 NU 17
24 OSU 27 (OT)
24 Tech 14 Record: 8-2

2010

27 Arizona 34
38 Mich 28
30 Wisky 31
18 Ind 13
17 NU 21
17 Ohio St 20
24 Gophers 27
27 Mizzou 24 Record: 3-5


OVERALL RECORD IN CLOSE GAMES: 33 WINS, 26 LOSSES
.559 WINNING PERCENTAGE
RECORD IN OVERTIME GAMES: 3 WINS, 2 LOSSES (60% WIN PERCENTAGE)

Conclusion: Iowa plays well in close games under Ferentz, and wins their fair share under this coaching staff. Ferentz has coached about 150 games at Iowa, with 40% of them being close games decided in the 4th quarter (really an amazing statistic).

2010 was frustrating, but not an indication of any type of trend.
 




this is chosenchildren's work with my comments bolded and a bit of regular text at the end:

Here is my definition: Any game in which Iowa leads by 7 points or less in the 4th quarter or trails by 7 points or less in the 4th quarter. I think this is a fair way to look at it.

A couple of examples: In the 2010 Orange Bowl, Iowa leads 17-14 during the 4th quarter. Georgia Tech has numerous chances to take the lead. The Iowa defense holds, and the Iowa offense scores a late, game-clinching touchdown. That to me was a classic close game.

In 2009, Iowa plays Wisconsin in Madison and is tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter. Iowa ultimately wins 20-10. A classic close game (same applies to the Penn State game, when Iowa trailed 10-5 entering the 4th quarter, but won 21-10 with a late surge).

Based on this criteria, here is the ten year record:

2001 This was mostly an overachieving team that shouldn't have been in many of these games

24 Penn State 18
14 Purdue 23
28 Mich St 31
28 Wisc 34
14 ISU 17
19 Texas Tech 16 Record: 2-4

2002 Best regular season by far of the Ferentz era and possibly most talented team (2009 is the other)

29 Miami Ohio 24
31 Iowa St. 36
42 Penn St 35 (OT)
31 Purdue 28 Record: 3-1

2003 again an overachieving team but had a very good defense, this team handled poor teams.

10 Michigan St 20
30 Michigan 27
10 Ohio St 19
27 Wisc 21 Record: 2-2

2004 Overachieving team with loss of 5 TBs and first year starting QB

17 Iowa St 10
6 Penn State 4
23 Purdue 21
29 Gophers 27
30 LSU 25 Record: 5-0

2005 The first real underachieving team of the Ferentz era- first team to play with a target on its back- was obviously overrated with the performance of the defense, one of top Ferentz era offenses

20 Michigan 23 (OT)
27 NU 28 This game will live forever in infamy- another example of Staff not burying a less talented team
20 Wisky 10
24 Florida 31 Record: 1-3

2006 Again an underachieving team, couldn't reload at WR and Tate was hurt for entire campaign

20 Syracuse 13 (OT) No Tate- Manson at QB
27 ISU 17
28 Indiana 31
24 N. ILL 14 No Tate- JC6 at QB
21 Wisky 24
24 Texas 26 Record: 3-3

2007 this team was lucky to win 6 games, This year should have been the year that coaching shined, and it didn't- notice what game is not a close game Western Michigan

13 Iowa St 15 Absolute worst loss on this list. I don't care who was at QB this was a terrible loss, terrible offense and poor gameplanning on defense at the end.
13 Wisky 17
10 Illini 6
34 Mich St 27 (OT)
21 Gophers 16 Record: 3-2

2008 the tide begins to turn after a disastrous start

20 Pitt 21 Iowa wins this game if Stanzi plays 2nd half- loss to make team better
17 NU 22 Again Iowa loses from ahead, bad turnovers, not too many coaching blunders here.
13 MSU 16
24 ILL 27
24 Penn St 23
22 Purdue 17 Almost a loss from ahead, was almost escorted out of the stadium at this game. Record: 2-4

2009 Probably 2nd most talented team in Ferentz era and most dynamic defense

17 N. Iowa 16 poor offensive gameplan limited by no known TB at time, offensive line injuries, and miracle finish.
21 Penn St 10
24 Ark St 21 Iowa stuggles to hold off an inferior opponent, long passing game working lets run into 9 man fronts.
30 Mich 28 Didn't have an answer for running game, again do nothing on offense and let an opponent in a game they had no business being in
20 Wisky 10
15 MSU 13
42 Ind 24 (trailed 24-14 in 4th qtr)
10 NU 17 Loss of Stanzi was too much to overcome along with poor officiating (Wegher TD)
24 OSU 27 (OT)
24 Tech 14 Lack of 2nd half offensive adjustments plus a rick6 made this closer than it should have been Record: 8-2

2010 Should have been in discussion for most talented team, another let down with a target on the back- that is at least partly and most likely a coaching issue

27 Arizona 34
38 Mich 28 This doesn't belong on this list. Iowa was never truly threatened in this game, and once again offense goes into 3 and out mode with a big lead
30 Wisky 31
18 Ind 13 lets throw fades into double coverage, lets not try to run the ball when defense is dropping 8 at the snap in the red zone
17 NU 21 No team understands Iowa better than the Mildcats. Terrible loss, but should have seen it coming
17 Ohio St 20
24 Gophers 27
27 Mizzou 24 Record: 3-5


OVERALL RECORD IN CLOSE GAMES: 33 WINS, 26 LOSSES
.559 WINNING PERCENTAGE
RECORD IN OVERTIME GAMES: 3 WINS, 2 LOSSES (60% WIN PERCENTAGE)

Conclusion: Iowa plays well in close games under Ferentz, and wins their fair share under this coaching staff. Ferentz has coached about 150 games at Iowa, with 40% of them being close games decided in the 4th quarter (really an amazing statistic).

2010 was frustrating, but not an indication of any type of trend.[/QUOTE]

This is a lot of research, but the truth is that Iowa plays to the level of its competition. That is a coaching problem. Iowa had and has playmakers but too often they are leashed when Iowa gets a lead of 8 or more. This season was bound to happen with that philosophy. How many of these close games should have been close?
 
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You can't count games that ended up more than a score as close game decided by less than 7 points Kf has struggled period no way around it.
 


Good post. And Patrick I appreciate your additions.

For some reason CC's original post is about three or four down the thread. I don't get that unless it has something to do with tinkering with the new server.
 


Yes, the Michigan loss in 01 should have been included. Makes the record 33-27.

I will stand by my argument for "close games". A final score of 7 points or less (win or loss margin) is quite misleading. The key is how close is the game in the 4th quarter when coaching decisions have to be made.

I'm not sure why it was 3 or 4 posts down. I am basically computer illiterate, so I don't know what happened.

Another example: Missouri was a classic close game. But if we score at the end (which we really should have; I think Reisner scored on that play), we win by 10 and thus it isn't a "close game" because the margin is more than 7. See how ridiculous that standard is?
 


Yes, the Michigan loss in 01 should have been included. Makes the record 33-27.

I will stand by my argument for "close games". A final score of 7 points or less (win or loss margin) is quite misleading. The key is how close is the game in the 4th quarter when coaching decisions have to be made.

I'm not sure why it was 3 or 4 posts down. I am basically computer illiterate, so I don't know what happened.

Another example: Missouri was a classic close game. But if we score at the end (which we really should have; I think Reisner scored on that play), we win by 10 and thus it isn't a "close game" because the margin is more than 7. See how ridiculous that standard is?



Once again someone trying to shade the facts and make excuses for the staff. How about 2002 Miami Ohio when Iowa was up 12 ..and gives up a meaningless touchdown to make it a five point game. Way more of those than the Missouri game.
 


Get your facts straight and do your homework HawkPhreek.

I attended that Miami of Ohio game. IA trailed 17-16 late in the 3rd quarter and led 22-17 well into the 4th quarter. A classic close game. The QB for Miami of Ohio was Ben Roethlisberger. Ever heard of him?

I am not defending anybody. The facts speak for themselves. Sorry to rain on your "sky is falling" parade.
 


Iowa scored ahead 29-17...12pt lead gave a td win by 5.. KF is 7-23 ? game decided by less than 5 pts or something very close to this. I don't need help with my parade. 7-23 IS PRETTY LOUD.
 


Once again, you are absolutely incorrect. The Ferentz record in games decided by 5 points or less is much better than 7-23. I posted on this previously. I will recover that data and publish it for you.

Obviously I will never convince you on this subject, but you need to be accurate with your facts. I'll post the "5 points or less" records in a few minutes.
 


Sorry you are correct I got 18-22. Under .500, I got 22-19 in big 10 play last 5 years. Both without even losing a coordinator. Coaching staff been together since day one and they are 3 game over .500 in 5 years. YEEEEEEHHHHHAAAWWWWWW. Give him a raise.
 


OK, HawkPhreek, here is Iowa's record in games decided by 5 points or less over the past 10 seasons:

01 1-1
02 2-1
03 1-0
04 4-0
05 0-2
06 0-3
07 2-2
08 2-4
09 4-1
10 2-4

TEN YEAR RECORD: 18 WINS, 18 LOSSES .500 WINNING PERCENTAGE

YOUR 7-23 STUFF IS FANTASY LAND - your conclusion is flawed, not mine.

Anybody can accumulate this data. Check out the College Football Data Warehouse
 




Read it again, dude. 18-18 over the past 10 years, even under your tortured definition of what is a "close game". I'll stand by my definition of what is a close game.

Where is your 7-23 record? OOOPS BUSTED
 


OK, now you are talking. Is 18-18 a good record in close games? Or 33-27 if you accept my definition?

That is a legitimate question on your part. I absolutely concede that point to you. I really don't know the answer, because I haven't compared the Ferentz record to other coaching staffs.

To answer it, you would have to compare the Ferentz record to coaching staffs that meet your minimum criteria of competency, since you obviously think that the Iowa staff is not good.

Who do you respect in the Big Ten? Tressel? Bielema? Paterno? Fitzgerald? What is your gold standard for purposes of comparison? You pick the coach and I'll compile the record. But I'm using both definitions of close games, not just yours. Give me 3 coaching staffs that meet your gold standard and I'll do a comparison for you.
 


I gotta go so I will answer the question. Jim Tressel and Ohio State are the gold standard in the Big Ten. 80% winning percentage over the past 10 seasons, one national championship and 6 straight Big Ten titles. No other program is even close.

Tressel record in close games: 24 wins 14 losses .631 winning percentage
Ferentz record in close games: 33 wins 27 losses .550 winning percentage

Not that different. You can criticize Ferentz all you want, but you say that he somehow "chokes" in close games is horse manure.
 




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