#1 , this listed reason is entirely nonsensical to me. You start off rambling about Stanzi being benched to spite Pioli and back into a comment about how the firing at 5-8 somehow all remotely points to KF being the guy.
#2 has nothing to do with KF going to KC, at least you don't relate the two in any logical manner.
#3, winning the AFC West is completely irrelevant to winning in the B10 in relation to hiring KF. Besides, your essentially saying a coach that is struggling recently to do well in the B10 is better suited for a weaker division in the NFL because it's easier, when the end goal is to hire a HC that will ultimately pilot the franchise through to the Super Bowl and the grueling NFL post-season battle.
#4, yes KC's talent pool is getting better. Again, completely unrelated to a sign KF is the guy, and by the way your DC has announced he is interested in being a HC again...
#5, do you even know the KC market? This isn't nearly as nonchalant of a fan base as you imply. So that point is flawed to begin with.
#6, really, do I have to explain this? He's been propped up as DC for the past how many years despite his health, this was happening regardless.
#7 do the math, VB and Wienke will be SR's, Derby is now a LB, so that leaves you with Rudock and no commits yet in the current crop. This isn't rocket science why they went the JUCO route.
In summary, I don't see a single listed reason that really remotely demonstrates the reasoning behind your belief that KF to KC is locked up.
I don't see Pioli gambling on his next HC decision. We know what the history of CFB HC's to the NFL is with few exceptions.