Expectations going forward

B

BryceC

Well-Known Member
Caught about the last 8-10 minutes of the Nebraska game. Others have said it but I thought for sure Iowa was going to lose that game based on what happened last year. They pulled it out though and I have to tip my cap to Iowa. Getting the road win at OSU was huge, and they showed real grit in both that game and the Nebraska game.

Already 2-0. I think it’s safe to assume Iowa does this going forward:

Will win 5 of 6:
Ill, NW, Rutgers, MN, @Mich, @NW

Swing games (3 of 8, I would do 50% but there are 5 roadies and that will be tough)
@MN, MSU, OSU, @Purdue, MD, @PSU, @Indy, @NU

Probable Loss
UW, @UW

Most bracket guys still have iowa in the top half of the bracket. I think Lunardi has Iowa as a 7 seed. My forecast would be 10-8 in the Big 10, and I think it should be the expectation. 1-1 in the B1G tourney at minimum and Iowa is in the NCAA’s in the top half of the bracket. I get there are some frustrating parts of this team but honestly you have to tip the cap to Fran and the kids. They are showing a toughness I don’t think they did last season. I’ve criticized Fran for getting too emotional but he’s largely been a cool customer this year. Really impressed with Iowa the last 2 games.
 
I would flip the @Mich and @PSU game from "Will win" to "Swing game." I know Michigan isn't what they have been but I think @PSU is a more winnable game.

Otherwise I agree, 10-8 seems about right. I was not this confident after the UNI loss, but I won't overvalue them just because they won @OSU.

I think Fran has learned to keep his emotions in check, and is picking and choosing moments to get fired up. Those moments are better timed and constructive.

Last thing I'll say with a bit of optimism. Those "Swing games" are not what they have been in recent B1G seasons. There is potential upside.
 
It is tough to lump games into categories with this team. Without a consistent go-to player on offense this team can beat anybody on any given night and lose to anybody on any given night. The Nebraska game could have easily been a loss and Iowa made some critical defensive miscues on defense that allowed Nebraska to get back into the game.

So my expectations, Iowa will win anywhere between 6 to 10 games the rest of the way. Yes, my crystal ball is awesome!
 
Just a little gun shy after last year. I would have never guessed was lose 6 of 7 like we did.

I think we will be up and down all year because of our guard play. Some nights the guards will show up (UNC), Some nights the front court will be able to over come weak guard play (OSU, Nebby) and some nights it will bite us in the azz (Texas, Cuse, ISU, UNI).
 
To me, it comes down to two sets of 8 games, one very tough, and the other not nearly as bad.

The next 8 games:
MSU
@MINN
OSU
@WISC
@PUR
WISC
@MICH
MD

The last 8 games:
MINN
@NW
RUTG
@NEB
ILL
@PSU
@IND
NW

If we go 3-5 in the next 8, we'll be sitting at 5-5 in the league. 6-2 over the last 8 would put us at 11-7 and 20 wins overall.
 
BryceC said:
Caught about the last 8-10 minutes of the Nebraska game. Others have said it but I thought for sure Iowa was going to lose that game based on what happened last year. They pulled it out though and I have to tip my cap to Iowa. Getting the road win at OSU was huge, and they showed real grit in both that game and the Nebraska game.

Already 2-0. I think it’s safe to assume Iowa does this going forward:

Will win 5 of 6:
Ill, NW, Rutgers, MN, @Mich, @NW

Swing games (3 of 8, I would do 50% but there are 5 roadies and that will be tough)
@MN, MSU, OSU, @Purdue, MD, @PSU, @Indy, @NU

Probable Loss
UW, @UW

Most bracket guys still have iowa in the top half of the bracket. I think Lunardi has Iowa as a 7 seed. My forecast would be 10-8 in the Big 10, and I think it should be the expectation. 1-1 in the B1G tourney at minimum and Iowa is in the NCAA’s in the top half of the bracket. I get there are some frustrating parts of this team but honestly you have to tip the cap to Fran and the kids. They are showing a toughness I don’t think they did last season. I’ve criticized Fran for getting too emotional but he’s largely been a cool customer this year. Really impressed with Iowa the last 2 games.
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Fair assessment. We will see how Iowa responds Thursday. Michigan State needs this game, and Iowa will get their best shot. The win over Nebraska was nice, but in reality it was a game Iowa had to have if it wanted to make the tournament. Nebraska is depleted and would have been crushing to not get that one at home.

If Iowa can manage to beat MSU tomorrow, they get a little bit of a margin of error for the rest of the schedule. Interesting times.
 
BryceC said:
Most bracket guys still have iowa in the top half of the bracket. I think Lunardi has Iowa as a 7 seed. My forecast would be 10-8 in the Big 10, and I think it should be the expectation. 1-1 in the B1G tourney at minimum and Iowa is in the NCAA’s in the top half of the bracket. I get there are some frustrating parts of this team but honestly you have to tip the cap to Fran and the kids. They are showing a toughness I don’t think they did last season. I’ve criticized Fran for getting too emotional but he’s largely been a cool customer this year. Really impressed with Iowa the last 2 games.
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Agreed, 100 percent.
 
ssckelley said:
It is tough to lump games into categories with this team. Without a consistent go-to player on offense this team can beat anybody on any given night and lose to anybody on any given night. The Nebraska game could have easily been a loss and Iowa made some critical defensive miscues on defense that allowed Nebraska to get back into the game.

So my expectations, Iowa will win anywhere between 6 to 10 games the rest of the way. Yes, my crystal ball is awesome!
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True, which is why I put team in lumps. You're going to win some of the swing games and lose some of the swing games. I agree I might be a little over optimistic on @mich and @PSU, but I think it's totally possible Iowa gets at least one from Wisky too.
 
BryceC said:
Most bracket guys still have iowa in the top half of the bracket. I think Lunardi has Iowa as a 7 seed. My forecast would be 10-8 in the Big 10, and I think it should be the expectation. 1-1 in the B1G tourney at minimum and Iowa is in the NCAA’s in the top half of the bracket. I get there are some frustrating parts of this team but honestly you have to tip the cap to Fran and the kids. They are showing a toughness I don’t think they did last season. I’ve criticized Fran for getting too emotional but he’s largely been a cool customer this year. Really impressed with Iowa the last 2 games.
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Your prediction is fair. If we finish 10-8 in B1G, that puts us at 19-12 overall before the B1G tourney and likely gets us into the tournament. However, I don't think that puts us in the top half of the bracket. That smells like a 9 to 11 seed to me. I hope I'm wrong.
 
deanvogs said:
Just a little gun shy after last year. I would have never guessed was lose 6 of 7 like we did.

I think we will be up and down all year because of our guard play. Some nights the guards will show up (UNC), Some nights the front court will be able to over come weak guard play (OSU, Nebby) and some nights it will bite us in the azz (Texas, Cuse, ISU, UNI).
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The last 2 games have removed the memory of last season's Iowa team from my mind. Maybe I'm too quick on the draw but IMO Iowa loses both those games last year. Big road win, held off a resilient Neb team on Mon... like dodger said if they win against MSU tomorrow I'd be feeling pretty dang good.
 
If you promised me we'd be an 11 seed right now, I believe I'd take it. I just am gun shy after last year and we can look really bad at times. Our backcourt is going to be a weakness all year long.
 
I think it's less the strength of the opponent and more the inconsistency of Iowa. (It's not you, it's me) If the Iowa team that played at osu shows up, this team can win a lot of games.

If the team that clanked it's way to a victory over a bad Nebraska team shows up.............trouble. We can't get zero FG's and 2 FT's from the combination of Gesell, Oglesby, and Jok and hope to win many games.

So hold on. This is going to be a bumpy roller coaster ride.
 
It will definitely be a bumpy ride. Especially in the near future. I also have tempered expectations because of last year. But the reason I think Iowa wins 10 games is because of the balance of the conference.
 
Prior to the OSU game, I was picking 8-10 in the conference, based mainly on weak shooting and guard play. My thought was that Iowa would have a few games where the shots were going down and win a couple I'm not expecting, but poor shooting in other games will probably cost the team a couple games we thought they should win.

The game @OSU was one of those games where the shots went down, and I didn't expect them to win that one, so I've upgraded my prediction to 9-9. I think I'll stick with that for now.
 
1hawkeye1 said:
I think it's less the strength of the opponent and more the inconsistency of Iowa. (It's not you, it's me) If the Iowa team that played at osu shows up, this team can win a lot of games.

If the team that clanked it's way to a victory over a bad Nebraska team shows up.............trouble. We can't get zero FG's and 2 FT's from the combination of Gesell, Oglesby, and Jok and hope to win many games.

So hold on. This is going to be a bumpy roller coaster ride.
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^^^^^^^This is where I am at. I just can't go all in yet. Somebody in that backcourt has to turn the corner and give me solid play for 3 or 4 games in a row.
 
I think Iowa wins one of the Wisconsin games. Iowa matches up against Wiscy very well and always plays them tough. However, I think Maryland beats Iowa pretty good in Iowa City which will be tough to watch.

I think 11-13 big ten wins is very realistic. Anything more than 13 would be a unbelievable success, anything less than 10 wins would be a large disappointment.
 
I'm still hesitant to say they will make the dance and here is why or the concerns I have with the 2 recent wins and the guard play moving forward.

OSU played a zone pretty much the entire game. Our offense seems to be best against the zone. We consistently got good looks against Syracuse earlier in the year against their 2-3. I think our offense struggles the most when our guards have to find ways to create against a man to man D.

Against Nebraska, Gabe had a career night and we outscored Nebraska by 18 points at the free throw line. Even with those... it was a tight game until late in the 2nd half.

There's no doubt in my mind the poor guard play will bite us... it's only a matter of when.
 
ibahawkeye said:
OSU played a zone pretty much the entire game. Our offense seems to be best against the zone. We consistently got good looks against Syracuse earlier in the year against their 2-3. I think our offense struggles the most when our guards have to find ways to create against a man to man D.
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As bad as Iowa shoots from the outside I would think the zone would be the way to defend Iowa. When teams go man to man the guards drop the ball inside where they draw contact and get to the line.
 
ssckelley said:
As bad as Iowa shoots from the outside I would think the zone would be the way to defend Iowa. When teams go man to man the guards drop the ball inside where they draw contact and get to the line.
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And when they go zone, our ball movement chews them up. They're screwed either way.
 
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