ESPN's Bubble Watch

[DunderMifflinHk]

College Basketball Bubble Watch - A few words on the committee that actually decides this whole thing - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

From article:

Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana
Teams that should be in: Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Work left to do: Illinois
NIT Favorite: Iowa

"Iowa is not the No. 91-ranked team in the country. Unfortunately, the RPI feels otherwise. According to reality-based metrics, the Hawkeyes are one of the 35 best teams in the country -- No. 31 in BPI, No. 35 in KenPom -- whose only fault is being young and thus far not very good at closing out tight games. To wit: Losses to Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin were all decided by fewer than four points. For all of these reasons, I would like to give the Hawkeyes the benefit of the doubt. But recent history tells us that a 91 RPI and a 326th-ranked nonconference schedule are non-starters, bubble-wise. Right now, the Hawks are your overwhelming NIT favorites. We'll see if they can change that in the weeks to come."

 

[ILHawk]

Let's look at it another way. Iowa is 1 - 7 against the top 7 teams in B1G.

They are 2 - 7 against top 40 RPI teams with the 2 wins coming from teams no higher than 30.

Since the argument will be made about OSU, they are 2-6 against top 30, but have a win against a 5 and a top 30. SoS is 24 RPI.

Work left to do: Beat IU, IL, MN or beat 2 of those 2 and 2 wins in B1G tourney

 

[shada]

I dont understand how Kentucky's SOS and RPI are so high besides being Kentucky. The SEC is garbage compared to the BIG and they really didn't play that tough of an out of conference schedule to make it that much better than ours. And I dont know how RPI is that good when they have only beat a couple decent teams and 1 ranked team.

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball 2012-13 Schedule - Wildcats Home and Away - ESPN

 

[DunderMifflinHk]

If they beat Illinois, Minnesota and win 1 in the BTT they're in. 22-11 (10-8) 6th place in B10. 7-3 in last 10 also. Quality wins over ISU, Wisc, Minn, Illini

 

[Wassabbe]

I dont understand how Kentucky's SOS and RPI are so high besides being Kentucky. The SEC is garbage compared to the BIG and they really didn't play that tough of an out of conference schedule to make it that much better than ours. And I dont know how RPI is that good when they have only beat a couple decent teams and 1 ranked team.

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball 2012-13 Schedule - Wildcats Home and Away - ESPN

Yeah I don't get it, I mean Kentucky only played Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Baylor, and Maryland.

Our 5 toughest non conference games were way harder!! Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Western Kentucky.

Our non conference SOS was pathetically bad.

 

[hawkinn3]

I agree, we won't solve the mental mistakes this season so running the table isn't going to happen. Just hope they care about the NIT and don't mail it in because they are upset about missing the dance.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Yeah...and they lost to Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor. They beat Maryland by 3. Big deal! I think it should be about getting the best teams in the tournament.

Side Note: I've been swamped today and haven't heard any updates on Kentucky's injured player. If he's out for the year Kentucky may end up on the bubble before all is said and done.

Yeah I don't get it, I mean Kentucky only played Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Baylor, and Maryland.

Our 5 toughest non conference games were way harder!! Iowa State, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Western Kentucky.

Our non conference SOS was pathetically bad.

 

[hawkfan33]

Yeah...and they lost to Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor. They beat Maryland by 3. Big deal! I think it should be about getting the best teams in the tournament.

Side Note: I've been swamped today and haven't heard any updates on Kentucky's injured player. If he's out for the year Kentucky may end up on the bubble before all is said and done.

RPI is 75% who you play and only 25% how you do against them.

 

[ssckelley]

Let's look at it another way. Iowa is 1 - 7 against the top 7 teams in B1G.

They are 2 - 7 against top 40 RPI teams with the 2 wins coming from teams no higher than 30.

Since the argument will be made about OSU, they are 2-6 against top 30, but have a win against a 5 and a top 30. SoS is 24 RPI.

Work left to do: Beat IU, IL, MN or beat 2 of those 2 and 2 wins in B1G tourney

Damn, you do not give up do you? I have provided you with facts, showed you how Iowa stacks up against other bubble teams and you still think they have to accomplish the impossible to get into the tournament!

If Iowa accomplishes your "work to do" they will not just be in the tournament but get a pretty good seed as well.

 

[storminspank]

What hurts Iowa is their opponents' opponents win%.
All those bottom conference teams Iowa played kills their RPI and SOS.

However, they have at least 8 games left against the B1G, this will boost their RPI.
If Iowa's RPI is in the 80s with a week to do, then get worried.

Right now, I am not worried about RPI at this time, it will come down in the next few weeks.

 

[bws258]

If they beat Illinois, Minnesota and win 1 in the BTT they're in. 22-11 (10-8) 6th place in B10. 7-3 in last 10 also. Quality wins over ISU, Wisc, Minn, Illini

true

 

[Wassabbe]

Yeah...and they lost to Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame and Baylor. They beat Maryland by 3. Big deal! I think it should be about getting the best teams in the tournament.

Side Note: I've been swamped today and haven't heard any updates on Kentucky's injured player. If he's out for the year Kentucky may end up on the bubble before all is said and done.

Playing good teams and losing is better than playing awful teams and winning. Are you new to the RPI?

 

[eveningnewsteam]

If they finish 10-8, theyre in. It doesnt matter what they do in the conference tournament. 10-8 in this year's Big 10 is a lock.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

RPI is 75% who you play and only 25% how you do against them.

Which I think, to a large degree, is a crock. Should a tough schedule be taken into account when looking at your overall record? Of course! But it would gripe me to see a team go 17-13 against a brutal schedule, and get the nod just because they lost to a bunch of good teams, particularly over, let's say, some mid-major team that went 25-5. Provided that 17-13 team didn't do squat against the Top 50 or Top 100.

That is why last year, I never thought for a moment that Northwestern was a tournament team, because they were something like 1-10 against the Top 50.

At least if Iowa does enough down the stretch to get to 20-21 wins, they should have probably 4 wins against the Top 50: ISU, Wisconsin, Minny, ILL.

 

[Wassabbe]

What hurts Iowa is their opponents' opponents win%.
All those bottom conference teams Iowa played kills their RPI and SOS.

However, they have at least 8 games left against the B1G, this will boost their RPI.
If Iowa's RPI is in the 80s with a week to do, then get worried.

Right now, I am not worried about RPI at this time, it will come down in the next few weeks.

It will improve but not a ton. Still have some bad RPI teams on the list

Penn State 202
Nebraska (twice) 97
Purdue 130
Minnesota 13
Indiana 11
Illinois 27

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Playing good teams and losing is better than playing awful teams and winning. Are you new to the RPI?

Losing should never be better than winning IMO. Ever.

I could see giving some credit to a team for playing good teams close, even in defeat, but not if you're getting destroyed. But IMO a team should never get penalized for wins. I have trouble seeing it any other way.

(although yes, I know that's the way it is with RPI, I'm just not sure I agree with that)

 

[Wassabbe]

Losing should never be better than winning IMO. Ever.

I could see giving some credit to a team for playing good teams close, even in defeat, but not if you're getting destroyed. But IMO a team should never get penalized for wins. I have trouble seeing it any other way.

(although yes, I know that's the way it is with RPI, I'm just not sure I agree with that)

Just so we are clear.

You play Duke

I play Savannah State

I should get more credit for winning?

 

[eveningnewsteam]

[h=6]Juan (Madrid)[/h]

If Iowa finishes 6-1 in conference the rest of the way making them 10-8 in the bext conference in America are they in the big dance? Of there nine losses, only two would be two teams outside the top 41 of the RPI.
[h=6]Joe Lunardi (2:20 PM)
[/h]

That would surely do it, Juan. Then again, a 6-1 streak in almost any major conference would work for almost any team. The schedule is favorable, though, I'll admit that...

 

[Wassabbe]

Which I think, to a large degree, is a crock. Should a tough schedule be taken into account when looking at your overall record? Of course! But it would gripe me to see a team go 17-13 against a brutal schedule, and get the nod just because they lost to a bunch of good teams, particularly over, let's say, some mid-major team that went 25-5. Provided that 17-13 team didn't do squat against the Top 50 or Top 100.

That is why last year, I never thought for a moment that Northwestern was a tournament team, because they were something like 1-10 against the Top 50.

At least if Iowa does enough down the stretch to get to 20-21 wins, they should have probably 4 wins against the Top 50: ISU, Wisconsin, Minny, ILL.

If Kentucky played Iowa's non conference schedule there is a decent chance they would have gone through it undefeated. Iowa State is the best team Iowa played in non conference and they would rank 4th on Kentucky's

 

[volhawk50]

Just so we are clear.

You play Duke

I play Savannah State

I should get more credit for winning?

No. But if you lose at home to Baylor, you should be penalized, and the Savannah State win should get more credit.