ESPN Bubble Watch

theboat

theboat

Well-Known Member
I'll take it.
College Basketball Bubble Watch - Conference tournaments create their own mid-major madness - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

Iowa [20-11 (9-9), RPI: 72, SOS: 124] Iowa really isn't that far out of this thing: The Hawkeyes were among Joe Lunardi's next four out Monday, ahead of Arizona State and below Alabama, and that looks about right to me. As I've written before in this space, Iowa is drastically underrated by its 72 RPI; adjusted efficiency tells us this is one of the 30 or so best teams in the country. And usually 9-9 in the Big Ten is enough to get you a very serious look. The problem is, the Hawkeyes scheduled so badly in the nonconference -- noncon SOS: 305 -- that they won't receive any benefit of the doubt from the committee. But if they can knock off Michigan State in the second round of the Big Ten tournament? You never know.
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I've been thinking for awhile that they are a top 30 team. Nice to see an outside source say it. I'm starting to really think they might be a pre season top 25 next year.
 


PCHawk said:
I've been thinking for awhile that they are a top 30 team. Nice to see an outside source say it. I'm starting to really think they might be a pre season top 25 next year.
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With what they return, bring in, and lose, that doesn't seem far fetched.

I think if they make a run and make the tournament, winning a game, they would be preseason ranked.
If they make the tournament and lose, probably 30-35.
If they don't make the tournament 40-50 to start next year.
 


Some of the teams Lunardi has ahead of Iowa on the First/Next Four Out blow my mind. I'm in no way saying Iowa is some sort of world beater but unless things change, I can't see teams like Ole Miss, Alabama, and Southern Miss making the tournament. Baylor has a ton of talent, but has to make noise in their tournament, like Iowa. MTSU is a wildcard, and the type of team the committee will probably go with, with their gaudy computer numbers.

Also, I actually think Tennessee has a pretty solid resume, and better than teams 'in' like UK and Virginia.
 


We are better than 72nd but we are not a top 30 team. There is no case to be made for us to be a top 30 team
 


Wassabbe said:
We are better than 72nd but we are not a top 30 team. There is no case to be made for us to be a top 30 team
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I'd argue top 40. Iowa would have a lot more success in a conference like the Big 12, Pac-12, or SEC.
 




tm3308 said:
I'd argue top 40. Iowa would have a lot more success in a conference like the Big 12, Pac-12, or SEC.
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Top 40 maybe, but I'd probably have us top 50. We might get 11 wins in the SEC but our RPI would take a hit b/c of it and we would be worse off.
 


Wassabbe said:
Top 40 maybe, but I'd probably have us top 50. We might get 11 wins in the SEC but our RPI would take a hit b/c of it and we would be worse off.
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That's true, but it's already established that RPI doesn't show how good a team is, but rather the quality of its resume. Iowa is better than many of the teams ranked ahead of it, but their resume (held back by awful OOC SOS) keeps RPI from illustrating that.
 


The fact that So. Miss and Iowa are mentioned in the same bubble breath is appalling.
For peats sake, dump So. Miss.
 


I wasn't talking about our resume being top 30. I was saying that right now there might not be 30 teams that can beat us 6 times out of 10 on a neutral floor. I definitely understand if people don't agree with that and there is no way to prove it, its just how I feel.
 


From the blurb on Illinois:

"The Illini likewise doing their best to prevent us from fully locking them in to the tournament, the only difference being their defeats are much more forgivable. Losing three of your past four is fine when the losses come at Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State."
 


Iowa is certainly one of the top 40 teams in the land, but their resume is not.
It will come down to which one the committee favors, which is typically the latter.

Iowa has its chance to improve on that end, though.
 


storminspank said:
Iowa is certainly one of the top 40 teams in the land, but their resume is not.
It will come down to which one the committee favors, which is typically the latter.

Iowa has its chance to improve on that end, though.
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Wonderful criteria - Yes, you are one of the best teams, but you can't get into the tournament because our form says you can't.
 


Gotta win or none of the talk will matter. I think we need two for sure, prolly there like the other thread discusses.
 


homes said:
Wonderful criteria - Yes, you are one of the best teams, but you can't get into the tournament because our form says you can't.
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It's the only way to objectively select teams. If they were only concerned with taking the best teams according to the eyeball test, there would be a lot fewer mid-majors getting in.
 


theboat said:
With what they return, bring in, and lose, that doesn't seem far fetched.

I think if they make a run and make the tournament, winning a game, they would be preseason ranked.
If they make the tournament and lose, probably 30-35.
If they don't make the tournament 40-50 to start next year.
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I think an NIT run to New York gives us a decent shot at being a fringe top 25 team to start the season too.
 


homes said:
Wonderful criteria - Yes, you are one of the best teams, but you can't get into the tournament because our form says you can't.
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Well unfortunately that form does not show we came within a possession of taking the lead of #1 Indiana, a bad foul on a 3 point attempt from beating #10 Michigan State, or a hair length from Oglesby draining that 3 at #22 Wisconsin ect ect. It is impossible for the committee to watch all of these games, they do have a committee person assigned to each conference but mainly what they use is data and based on the data Iowa is currently a weak tournament team. Hopefully the committee will be using more than just RPI data to make their decision and hopefully Iowa can make it more difficult for the committee to leave them out of the tournament by winning a few games in the BTT.
 


tm3308 said:
It's the only way to objectively select teams. If they were only concerned with taking the best teams according to the eyeball test, there would be a lot fewer mid-majors getting in.
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And there's something wrong with that outcome if they would not otherwise qualify? Besides, mid-majors get in via their conference tournaments, so they're taken care of.
 


homes said:
Wonderful criteria - Yes, you are one of the best teams, but you can't get into the tournament because our form says you can't.
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Gotta play by the rules.
Can blame Iowa for scheduling cupcakes and not closing out games, not the NCAA's selection process.
 


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