Down the 2021 Stretch - No 1st Rnd Bye for MI

eyekwah

eyekwah

Well-Known Member
There are really only 5 teams with a chance to be in the top 4: MI, OSU, Ill, IA and Purdue. OSU and Purdue have only 4 games to play before March 8. Michigan and Illinois have 6 to play and Iowa 5.

Iowa can clinch 4th with a 4 and 1 finish. It must win at one against Michigan or Ohio State. To reach the top four and the best seed for the B1G tournament the must wins are PSU, @OSU, Nebr and Wisconsin.

Purdue has a very easy schedule left; @NEBR, @PSU, Wisconsin and Indiana, compared to the others.

Illinois has probably the most difficult. They have @Minnesota, @MSU, Nebr, @Wisconsin, @Michigan and @OSU. Five road games and one home game in 16 days. A good chance they could lose three of the six.

Ohio State has one road game at MSU and three home games with Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois.

Michigan has this schedule left : @OSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Illinois, MSU and @MSU. Michigan has three tough games left based on the records so far: OSU, IOWA and Illinois. Even if they lost all 3 they would only end up with 4 losses. They will only play 17 games.

I'm not sure how the big ten will handle that. In my estimation the conference should eliminate Michigan from getting a first round bye. The other four teams mention here will all have played 20 games while Michigan played 17.
 
eyekwah said:
There are really only 5 teams with a chance to be in the top 4: MI, OSU, Ill, IA and Purdue. OSU and Purdue have only 4 games to play before March 8. Michigan and Illinois have 6 to play and Iowa 5.

Iowa can clinch 4th with a 4 and 1 finish. It must win at one against Michigan or Ohio State. To reach the top four and the best seed for the B1G tournament the must wins are PSU, @OSU, Nebr and Wisconsin.

Purdue has a very easy schedule left; @NEBR, @PSU, Wisconsin and Indiana, compared to the others.

Illinois has probably the most difficult. They have @Minnesota, @MSU, Nebr, @Wisconsin, @Michigan and @OSU. Five road games and one home game in 16 days. A good chance they could lose three of the six.

Ohio State has one road game at MSU and three home games with Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois.

Michigan has this schedule left : @OSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Illinois, MSU and @MSU. Michigan has three tough games left based on the records so far: OSU, IOWA and Illinois. Even if they lost all 3 they would only end up with 4 losses. They will only play 17 games.

I'm not sure how the big ten will handle that. In my estimation the conference should eliminate Michigan from getting a first round bye. The other four teams mention here will all have played 20 games while Michigan played 17.
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Wouldn't it be something if we ended up needing a favor from......IZZO!

Sparty is in prime position to play spoilers, if they're interested.
 
13-4 is a better win percentage than 15-5, but not by enough to justify giving them the championship. I think they should win a split championship at 13-4 with every team that finishes 15-5. If we win out, I'd say there's about a 25% chance for a catch of a split title.
 
I ran that Big Ten tournament simulator so many times, Iowa is pretty much either going to be the 4th or 5th seed. There are scenarios that exist for them to be as high as a 2 but it's not likely.

Those 2 losses to Indiana.....just need ONE free throw at Minnesota.....
 
ssckelley said:
I ran that Big Ten tournament simulator so many times, Iowa is pretty much either going to be the 4th or 5th seed. There are scenarios that exist for them to be as high as a 2 but it's not likely.

Those 2 losses to Indiana.....just need ONE free throw at Minnesota.....
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Watching Indiana just lose to MSU at home makes those 2 losses sting just a little bit more.
 
So the offices in Chicago are definitely not making Michigan play all 20?
 
ssckelley said:
I ran that Big Ten tournament simulator so many times, Iowa is pretty much either going to be the 4th or 5th seed. There are scenarios that exist for them to be as high as a 2 but it's not likely.

Those 2 losses to Indiana.....just need ONE free throw at Minnesota.....
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I assume you always put us at losing Michigan and OSU?
 
I just ran a bunch of scenarios. It's pretty tough to find a way to get the 1 seed but not really tough at all to find us a split of the conference. Holy shit MSU has a tough schedule left. Maybe they can catch some Izzo magic and win out. That would be 2 losses for Michigan and a loss each for Illinois and OSU.
 
For the last and final time. We lost a game at Minnesota we should have won.

But we won a game at Rutgers we should have lost.

There, its even. The Minnesota game was nearly two months ago and people still can't exorcize it from their conscience. I guarantee you the players have moved on.
 
trj said:
Watching Indiana just lose to MSU at home makes those 2 losses sting just a little bit more.
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That could be the start of a vintage Izzo late season run that could make us thank our lucky stars we caught them when we did.

Sparty is in great position to play spoiler and have a lot to say about who wins this conference and BTT seeding.
 
Northside Hawk said:
That could be the start of a vintage Izzo late season run that could make us thank our lucky stars we caught them when we did.

Sparty is in great position to play spoiler and have a lot to say about who wins this conference and BTT seeding.
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I doubt it this time around.
 
Northside Hawk said:
For the last and final time. We lost a game at Minnesota we should have won.

But we won a game at Rutgers we should have lost.

There, its even. The Minnesota game was nearly two months ago and people still can't exorcize it from their conscience. I guarantee you the players have moved on.
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We lost a game where we were 99.9% to win with 40 seconds left. We were probably never less than 30% to lose the Rutgers game. It was pretty much a 50/50 game the whole time. The ending of those two games were night and day different.
 
Irrel
eyekwah said:
There are really only 5 teams with a chance to be in the top 4: MI, OSU, Ill, IA and Purdue. OSU and Purdue have only 4 games to play before March 8. Michigan and Illinois have 6 to play and Iowa 5.

Iowa can clinch 4th with a 4 and 1 finish. It must win at one against Michigan or Ohio State. To reach the top four and the best seed for the B1G tournament the must wins are PSU, @OSU, Nebr and Wisconsin.

Purdue has a very easy schedule left; @NEBR, @PSU, Wisconsin and Indiana, compared to the others.

Illinois has probably the most difficult. They have @Minnesota, @MSU, Nebr, @Wisconsin, @Michigan and @OSU. Five road games and one home game in 16 days. A good chance they could lose three of the six.

Ohio State has one road game at MSU and three home games with Michigan, Iowa, and Illinois.

Michigan has this schedule left : @OSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Illinois, MSU and @MSU. Michigan has three tough games left based on the records so far: OSU, IOWA and Illinois. Even if they lost all 3 they would only end up with 4 losses. They will only play 17 games.

I'm not sure how the big ten will handle that. In my estimation the conference should eliminate Michigan from getting a first round bye. The other four teams mention here will all have played 20 games while Michigan played 17.
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Irrelevant. Covid year; nothing is normal.
 
PCHawk said:
We lost a game where we were 99.9% to win with 40 seconds left. We were probably never less than 30% to lose the Rutgers game. It was pretty much a 50/50 game the whole time. The ending of those two games were night and day different.
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It's big ten basketball. Very few teams escape stinging losses. I hope people who keep bringing up Minnesota or the two Indiana losses are simply pointing them out for factuality sake and not letting it impede their ability to enjoy a season that may not come around again for a while.
 
If Michigan beats Ohio State today and then Iowa they are champions with no question regardless of the fact they wont have played as many games. If they lose both then it makes the Big ten tournament more relevant Still the NCAA tournament is the most important thing
 
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