Down 9 and going for 2

[enosmohawk]

I have tried to figure out why the Iowa coaching staff chose to go for the two point conversion, when a kicked extra point would have got us to within one possession and still a possibility to tie. I thought you always PRESERVE your possibility to tie or win to keep pressure on the opponent. I don't ever recall a college or pro team in the same position as the Hawkeyes and choosing to go for two.

Can someone give me a plausible explanation for going for two????

 

[enosmohawk]

Sorry for the redundant post......

 

[PCHawk]

I have tried to figure out why the Iowa coaching staff chose to go for the two point conversion, when a kicked extra point would have got us to within one possession and still a possibility to tie. I thought you always PRESERVE your possibility to tie or win to keep pressure on the opponent. I don't ever recall a college or pro team in the same position as the Hawkeyes and choosing to go for two.

Can someone give me a plausible explanation for going for two????

The reasoning is, you want to know how many possessions you are behind as fast as possible. That way you're not thinking you're playing a 1 possession game when you are actually down 2 possessions (because you aren't going to get the conversion, you just don't know it yet). It's a better strategy with a little more time left. But one minute and 2 timeouts is potentially enough time for it to be beneficial to know you have to score in 40 seconds or so instead of 1 minute. Otherwise you will be under the impression you are in a one possession game, when in reality, you are in a 2 possession game 53% of the time. (Since getting a 2 pt conversion has a 47% success rate).

The only benefit to waiting is to keep up team moral for one more minute. Or 2 more seconds if you don't get the onside kick.

 

[83Hawk]

The reasoning is, you want to know how many possessions you are behind as fast as possible. That way you're not thinking you're playing a 1 possession game when you are actually down 2 possessions (because you aren't going to get the conversion, you just don't know it yet). It's a better strategy with a little more time left. But one minute and 2 timeouts is potentially enough time for it to be beneficial to know you have to score in 40 seconds or so instead of 1 minute. Otherwise you will be under the impression you are in a one possession game, when in reality, you are in a 2 possession game 53% of the time. (Since getting a 2 pt conversion has a 47% success rate).

The only benefit to waiting is to keep up team moral for one more minute. Or 2 more seconds if you don't get the onside kick.

If you kick the extra point, you know you are behind 1 possession, so your point is moot. You have a better chance of having only 1 more possession by kicking than you do going for 2. Only having to score once is better than having to score twice.

 

[uihawk82]

If you kick the extra point, you know you are behind 1 possession, so your point is moot. You have a better chance of having only 1 more possession by kicking than you do going for 2. Only having to score once is better than having to score twice.

I have to believe PCHawk is trolling us because about 20 other posters have tried to explain to him/her how kicking a high probability of success extra point lets you get within 8 points and a one score type tie.

 

[deanvogs]

The reasoning is, you want to know how many possessions you are behind as fast as possible.

The odds of having time and being able to recover 1 onside kick and scoring again is like a 1 in 100 chance anyway. If you don't convert the 2 point conversion when you attempt it, you are at a 0 in 100 chance of scoring 2 more times. There is absolutely no reason to "know" if you need to score two more times, as it is simply impossible.

 

[ssckelley]

I feel like we're being very nit picky about this when we just got upset on senior night by Purdue. A shit ton went wrong in this game, let's talk about that. Heck lets talk about taking the ball after winning the coin toss, which was beyond stupid considering the wind conditions and the offensive struggles they've had.

 

[PCHawk]

I have to believe PCHawk is trolling us because about 20 other posters have tried to explain to him/her how kicking a high probability of success extra point lets you get within 8 points and a one score type tie.

Playing an 8 point game is like playing a game without knowing the score. Why would you want to do that? Find out the score as soon as possible. Why wait until the end, miss it, and find out you were actually in a 2 possession game?

Calling an 8 point game in football a one possession game is the same as calling a 4 point game in basketball a one possession game. Technically you can catch up in one possession. But odds are against you.

 

[PCHawk]

The odds of having time and being able to recover 1 onside kick and scoring again is like a 1 in 100 chance anyway. If you don't convert the 2 point conversion when you attempt it, you are at a 0 in 100 chance of scoring 2 more times. There is absolutely no reason to "know" if you need to score two more times, as it is simply impossible.

So you agree with me that it's way more beneficial to go for 2 first if there is more time left? Then I agree with you that with such a small amount of time, the slight odds you gain by finding out first are so small that it's ok to wait for the end for a funner surprise for the fans.

Kinda like waiting to find out the sex of a baby. If you find out at 20 weeks, you can do some planning. But some people don't care about planning, they just want to keep the surprise as long as possible. Kirk decided to find out the sex the night before the birth. He killed our surprise and didn't even have time to paint the room.

 

[PCHawk]

Here's a question. We were in a 2 possession game. Did it become a 3 possession game because of WHEN we missed the conversion? Or did it become a 3 possession game BECAUSE we missed the conversion?


The answer is because me missed the conversion. If we would have missed it at the end, we would have needed another possession.

 

[deanvogs]

So you agree with me that it's way more beneficial to go for 2 first if there is more time left? Then I agree with you that with such a small amount of time, the slight odds you gain by finding out first are so small that it's ok to wait for the end for a funner surprise for the fans.

Kinda like waiting to find out the sex of a baby. If you find out at 20 weeks, you can do some planning. But some people don't care about planning, they just want to keep the surprise as long as possible. Kirk decided to find out the sex the night before the birth. He killed our surprise and didn't even have time to paint the room.

Sorry PC but you are wrong the whole way around on this one. Listen to the Miller and Deace podcast, they address this very well actually. Total bone head move going for 2 for Iowa in that spot.

 

[PCHawk]

Sorry PC but you are wrong the whole way around on this one. Listen to the Miller and Deace podcast, they address this very well actually. Total bone head move going for 2 for Iowa in that spot.

So with say 5 minutes left, you still wouldn't want to know if you were down one or two possessions? How can someone not want to know the score?

People are comparing the 0% chance of getting the first one to the 50% chance of getting the second one. This is like trying to teach 3rd graders algebra.

 

[theboat]

I feel like we're being very nit picky about this when we just got upset on senior night by Purdue. A shit ton went wrong in this game, let's talk about that. Heck lets talk about taking the ball after winning the coin toss, which was beyond stupid considering the wind conditions and the offensive struggles they've had.

I don’t think it is nitpicking. I think it is football 101 and that is why people are so dumbfounded. Ferments has been making the simple decisions seem complex for far too long. It would be like a CEO of a finance company not understanding how an IRA works. It’s nutty and sad.

 

[theboat]

So with say 5 minutes left, you still wouldn't want to know if you were down one or two possessions? How can someone not want to know the score?

People are comparing the 0% chance of getting the first one to the 50% chance of getting the second one. This is like trying to teach 3rd graders algebra.

Difference is with 5 minutes left you have a chance at 2 possessions. With 1 minute you don’t.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The reasoning is, you want to know how many possessions you are behind as fast as possible. That way you're not thinking you're playing a 1 possession game when you are actually down 2 possessions (because you aren't going to get the conversion, you just don't know it yet). It's a better strategy with a little more time left. But one minute and 2 timeouts is potentially enough time for it to be beneficial to know you have to score in 40 seconds or so instead of 1 minute. Otherwise you will be under the impression you are in a one possession game, when in reality, you are in a 2 possession game 53% of the time. (Since getting a 2 pt conversion has a 47% success rate).

The only benefit to waiting is to keep up team moral for one more minute. Or 2 more seconds if you don't get the onside kick.

Doesn't make sense at all.

Jon, where is that unlike button!!

 

[theboat]

So you agree with me that it's way more beneficial to go for 2 first if there is more time left? Then I agree with you that with such a small amount of time, the slight odds you gain by finding out first are so small that it's ok to wait for the end for a funner surprise for the fans.

Kinda like waiting to find out the sex of a baby. If you find out at 20 weeks, you can do some planning. But some people don't care about planning, they just want to keep the surprise as long as possible. Kirk decided to find out the sex the night before the birth. He killed our surprise and didn't even have time to paint the room.

it has nothing to do with surprise, it has to do with keeping the game alive as long as possible. Like fouling when you are down in basketball. The longer you have a chance, the more opportunity you have.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

If you kick the extra point, you know you are behind 1 possession, so your point is moot. You have a better chance of having only 1 more possession by kicking than you do going for 2. Only having to score once is better than having to score twice.

This.

At least you know you have a minute left if convert an onside kick.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The odds of having time and being able to recover 1 onside kick and scoring again is like a 1 in 100 chance anyway. If you don't convert the 2 point conversion when you attempt it, you are at a 0 in 100 chance of scoring 2 more times. There is absolutely no reason to "know" if you need to score two more times, as it is simply impossible.

Agree. The goal had to be just get the damn thing tied up somehow. If the coaches were thinking beyond that, then they REALLY have problems. They just had to try to wish that thing into overtime, IMO.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I feel like we're being very nit picky about this when we just got upset on senior night by Purdue. A shit ton went wrong in this game, let's talk about that. Heck lets talk about taking the ball after winning the coin toss, which was beyond stupid considering the wind conditions and the offensive struggles they've had.

With that wind, I'll give you your point about the coin toss. They've been deferring every other game, sometimes to my dismay. They then wait for a crappy day and take the ball and give the other team the choice to defend first. Doesn't make sense.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Playing an 8 point game is like playing a game without knowing the score. Why would you want to do that? Find out the score as soon as possible. Why wait until the end, miss it, and find out you were actually in a 2 possession game?

Calling an 8 point game in football a one possession game is the same as calling a 4 point game in basketball a one possession game. Technically you can catch up in one possession. But odds are against you.

No. Not the same at all. There is no wishing for "and ones" in football. It's merely a play, a lower percentage play.

If a team is 8 pts down, they know they are 8 pts down.

The problem with this game is they didn't allow themselves to be 8 pts down with a minute and some change left on the clock with a slim chance to win. They decided to go down 9pts with time left and lose!

Drop mic.