I would guess MSU will be favored by 8 points or more. Maybe 10 or more.
On the surface you'd think we'd be in trouble. But the fact is we match up well with Sparty. No question the Hawks have to play their best game to win, avoid turnovers and make a big play...but we have a shot.
After the beat down we had last year. We smoked them the year before and then they beat us pretty bad.
The game will ultimately come down to 2 things:
#1: JVB absolutely has to calm down and focus. By calming down, he must stand tough in the pocket; take a few knocks but trust his protection and wait that extra second for the route to clear downfield. It's the only way to get them to back off the blitzkrieg. By focusing, he simply has to be more consistent, decisive and accurate.
#2: Quick, decisive passes -- slants, curls and sit-downs. Not 5-outs or swings, which can be sloppy, but curls and sit-downs that are more crisp and allow the receiver to screen the defender. This will essentially become the "rushing" yards to soften them up for play-action. I see KMM and CJ having the potential for huge games if utilized properly.
Hope the bye week is used to simplify and attack.
Where I was surprised was how bad the MSU offense is. We think Iowa's offense stinks. Yikes. Iowa is averaging 2.6 ppg more than MSU, who is last in the Big Ten in scoring. The difference is that Iowa's offense has been waking up lately, and Michigan States has been spinning its wheels.
Granted, MSU has played a better schedule, so even in the categories where Iowa looks better, you have to give the nod to MSU because their numbers came from going up against better competition.
The more I think about it, the more I see this like Penn State last year. Iowa's defense will keep them in the game, but the offense will never really be a threat to score. MSU gets a td late and wins 13-3, or something like that.
Greg Davis has to go back to the drawing board and put together a special game plan for Sparty.
They will stop our Weisman run game on first and second down,so come out throwing on early downs,and then run after we get a lead. Their offense is suspect,with receivers who cannot seem to catch the ball.
Play the run, make Maxwell and the WR s beat us.
Michigan state has already lost two games, and there is no way Iowa will sneak up on them this year. There was some controversy about the Ohio state tape exchange, and they will have plenty of reasons to get fired up for their next two games. I can't see Michigan state going to one of the lower bowls, and I can't see Iowa going to a bowl this year.
The only edge I see Iowa having is the bye week to work on their shortcomings.