AZHAWKFAN1
Well-Known Member
Not just Fielder, but also Mark Buehrle. Gold glove winner plus holds runners on base.
Cubs are saving money for a change
- Thread starter thejumper5
- Start date
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
I love the mentality of some of you Cub fans like they are some kind of small market team. You actually think if they slash payroll this year it will somehow help them in future years? Honestly where do you think that money will go? Epstein will, at minimum, will keep payroll at the same level of where it is at and I bet he has authority to even increase it. With the exception of his first year Boston had one of the top 5 payrolls in the years they had Epstein as GM with many of those years only trailing NY Yankees. He is not going to come here with the mentality of saving the Cubs money.
With this years extra money he will add a couple of pieces, with next years money (Zambrano, Dempster, and Byrd) he will add a few more pieces, so on and so forth. He will keep adding pieces through free agency until the farm system catches up and starts paying off. I doubt he throws big money at long term deals unless it offers good value. This is how he built the Red Sox and if you listen to his interviews it is how he intends to build the Cubs.
With this years extra money he will add a couple of pieces, with next years money (Zambrano, Dempster, and Byrd) he will add a few more pieces, so on and so forth. He will keep adding pieces through free agency until the farm system catches up and starts paying off. I doubt he throws big money at long term deals unless it offers good value. This is how he built the Red Sox and if you listen to his interviews it is how he intends to build the Cubs.
thejumper5
Well-Known Member
The Cubs are shedding $41M in payroll just on who they have entering free agency (Grabow, Pena, Ramirez, Wood, Smardzija, Johnson plus Carlos Silva's number drops from $7M to $2M) and I expect them to aggressively try to drop Zambrano this offseason. Jeff Baker was at $1.75M and Geovany Soto was at $3M this past season; they are arbitration eligible this offseason. I don't see them making more than $7M combined, so the increase is payroll there is less than $3M. Four players (Byrd, Marmol, Marshall, Zambrano) currently under contract get raises worth a total of $5.5, and Dempster gets a $0.5M paycut. I expect them to re-sign Wood and increase his salary by about $2M. Entering the rest of free agency, I expect the Cubs' number to be around $103M; it was at $134M this past season.
I see it as highly unlikely that the Cubs will spend $31M this offseason on the free agents that are available. Maybe (MAYBE!) they get Fielder, and if they do, they will probably go above $134M. Other than that, I don't see the Cubs investing in this particular free agent market in such a way that their overall payroll will be more than about $125M-$130M next year.
Edit: Garza, Hill, Wells, and DeWitt are also arbitration eligible, but I am really unsure of how much they are worth. I didn't mean to ignore them the first time. That will probably move the number about $3-$6M, giving the Cubs a $25-$28M window to reach last year's number.
Edit 2: I'm also not saying the Cubs won't try to land some top tier free agents. I just don't think the free agent market is that deep. I'm generally attempting to comment on where the Cubs are on payroll and where the market is, not on how aggressive the Cubs will be in free agency. If the Cubs were to land all their first options (Darvish, Papelbon, Wilson, Fielder and/or Pujols, etc.), they could easily surpass $150M next year. It's just that I would be surprised if they land any of those guys, let alone all of them.
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goiahawks
Well-Known Member
With Ramirez gone and free agency being pretty slim at 3rd I'm guessing they play a youngster next year at 3rd? Might have to wait for a 2013 free agent.
I think the Cubs will go after Fielder. I would rather have Fielder over Pujols, since he's hitting his prime years and 4-5 years younger than Pujols.
Assuming they drop some $ on a 1st basemen this offseason, who do you think will play 3rd this year?
I think the Cubs will go after Fielder. I would rather have Fielder over Pujols, since he's hitting his prime years and 4-5 years younger than Pujols.
Assuming they drop some $ on a 1st basemen this offseason, who do you think will play 3rd this year?
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
The problem with spending money is that there aren't any blow you away FAs at SP or 3B, and the age is the issue with Pujols. Epstein has said he's learned from his mistake of paying for past production. The cubs need to develope their system because honestly they do not have the prospects to make trades for high end players right now.
Wasting money on FAs is why Hendry got the boot, do I expect the cubs to be a 90 million payroll. No, but I don't expect them to just spend money because they can. That would be stupid. You have to pick the right time to get players.
This team is not 1 or 2 pieces away from winning. They need a lot of help.
Wasting money on FAs is why Hendry got the boot, do I expect the cubs to be a 90 million payroll. No, but I don't expect them to just spend money because they can. That would be stupid. You have to pick the right time to get players.
This team is not 1 or 2 pieces away from winning. They need a lot of help.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
jumper, baseball reference has estimated the arbitration to be 24.5 million and the pre arbitration to be 9.43 million. But your numbers are not far off, I say the Cubs will be in the FA market with 30-40 million to spend. Again, I do not think Epstein will slash payroll but I highly doubt he will tie long term money into a player unless he sees it as a good investment. Is Fielder a good investment for long term? Idk, I wish I had access to that software program Epstein and his staff use. I would be shocked if they even picked up the phone on Pujols.
I do know the Cubs really can use a big bat for the middle of the lineup especially with Ramirez leaving town, and one that is lefthanded would be nice. I cannot imagine how ugly it would be if the Cubs only brought back Pena for first base and tried to use a rookie (LaMahieu) or a Dewitt/Baker combo at 3rd base. Unless Epstein wants the Cub fans to hate him right away this would be a horrible thing to do. Even just an illusion the Cubs are trying to win in 2012 would be enough to get him by.
I do know the Cubs really can use a big bat for the middle of the lineup especially with Ramirez leaving town, and one that is lefthanded would be nice. I cannot imagine how ugly it would be if the Cubs only brought back Pena for first base and tried to use a rookie (LaMahieu) or a Dewitt/Baker combo at 3rd base. Unless Epstein wants the Cub fans to hate him right away this would be a horrible thing to do. Even just an illusion the Cubs are trying to win in 2012 would be enough to get him by.
One player I'd love for the Cubs to target is Grady Sizemore. I'd put him in left field because there is less injury risk there and hope he turns into the player everyone thought he would be a couple years ago.
He'd be much cheaper than any of the big FA's and buying low on a guy with that kind of talent is a smart strategy for a team that isn't planning on contending. If he plays well and the Cubs still aren't contending, he's a valuable trade piece. If he doesn't, it didn't really cost you that much.
He'd be much cheaper than any of the big FA's and buying low on a guy with that kind of talent is a smart strategy for a team that isn't planning on contending. If he plays well and the Cubs still aren't contending, he's a valuable trade piece. If he doesn't, it didn't really cost you that much.
thejumper5
Well-Known Member
On Fielder: I think he is a fantastic short-term option and a huge risk as a long-term option. If he is willing to sign a 4-6 year deal (highly unlikely) or sign a front-loaded contract (possible, but odds are less than 50%), then he is a good option, but if he wants an 8-10 year deal where he's getting paid the same amount, or more, in year 10 that he got paid in year 1, I wouldn't go after him too hard.
Also, do you have a link to the baseball-reference contract page you're looking at? I was using information Cot's Contracts and trying to do the math myself. I mostly understand what the numbers all mean, but having someone else already do the work would be helpful.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
But is he broke? He stole zero bases last year and has 17 stolen bases the past 3 years and his on base percentage has pummeled. If he is not a basestealing threat then he is another Soriano with better defense.
But you might be right, he is only 28 years old. He might be one of those low risk high reward players that you offer a deal to filled with player/club options based on his performance this upcoming season. He is a 2 time Gold Glove award winner playing center field. If he can still play centerfield then that frees up Byrd for right field.
Here you go jumper:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2011-roster.shtml
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He's not top 5 but he's pretty good. He's brutal defensively. Longoria, Beltre, Youklis, Sandoval, Young, ARod, Zimmerman are all better than him as overall players.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Ramirez will get a 3 year deal for at least 12/year, but it won't be with the cubs. he is the best FA 3B by a long shot. The cubs don't need that contract working against them for another three years. Ramirez is not a cornerstone to a championship team, but he is a nice plug player for a team with other solid players.
thejumper5
Well-Known Member
I like Sizemore a lot. I think if he can stay healthy, he would be a quality right fielder for the Cubs. An added bonus would be that if he can still play center and the season goes south, the Cubs would have him as insurance and could shop Byrd for much-needed prospects. I don't think he will be too expensive (he made $8M last year and is expected to take a pay cut) for a guy that is only 28 and is a potential all-star when healthy. I think the Cubs should go after him, but I generally expect free agents to prefer staying in the league they already played in, an expectation that puts the Cubs at a disadvantage.
Agreed. The Cubs for my lifetime have never had a plan or figured out what it takes to be consistently competitive. The new ownership gets it and just give them some time. They are investing in the right things - Player Development, Latin America Facilities, the Draft and good execs. If you get these areas going in the right direction and then combine it with the Cubs Financial power, they could/should own the division! I like the direction they are heading! I do think we'll suck next year and we just need to hang tight, other than Fielder there isn't much I'd be interested in this year for Free Agents. But withing 2-3 years I think we'll see progression and lots of new young talent coming through the ranks.
Now, far as Ramirez... Great play by the new staff because by offering him the option now we get a high draft pick back as compensation if he leaves via free agency. So we basically shed a large contract for an aging player and get a first round pick to infuse more talent into the system. Great move!
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Cubs will only get a second round pick as Ramirez is a class B FA. the 2010 season screwed that up.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Spending money because you have it can screw you in the long term. The ARam situation is a good thing for the Cubs.
Don't go spend that money on AAAA players or .270 hitters. They have way too many holes to fill to compete next year and they won't be able to do it. So build for the long haul.
Don't go spend that money on AAAA players or .270 hitters. They have way too many holes to fill to compete next year and they won't be able to do it. So build for the long haul.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Exactly what I've said, and what the cubs have done for years. You can get that FA when you have a good solid foundation built and your farm system can give you enough players.
Section136
Well-Known Member
Pretty good read here on McLeod. Im absolutely thrilled with everything I have read about the Theo/Hoyer/McLeod trio.
McLeod to change Cubs' draft philosophy - Chicago Cubs Blog - ESPN Chicago
McLeod to change Cubs' draft philosophy - Chicago Cubs Blog - ESPN Chicago
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Not if you go after small term contracts. You can throw big money at a player but make him hit performance gates in order to lock in an extra year or fill it with club options. There are many ways to spend money without screwing yourself long term.
This is why you might see Epstein make more trades than picking up free agents. He has been known to make trades for veteran players that are in their final year of their contract just to get the compensation picks when they leave. You fill a spot short term, use some of your payroll, and in the end still build for the future. I am sure this is a big reason why they picked up Ramirez's option, not only did it save them 2 million but it got them a compensation pick.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Who are they going to trade? The only prospects people want are the ones the cubs are unwilling to give away?
