could go from 2 seed to the bubble

Fryowa said:
Fran has started to lose his shit publicly with reporters, and that's historically a sign that he's lost control of the situation.

Yesterday Emmert asked him after the game why he sat Garza (normal question that he should expect as a P5 basketball coach), and he told the group of reporters "You guys are unbelievable," told Emmert it was a "ridiculous question; you should know better, Mark." And didn't answer the question. Now I totally understand why he was mad, but you can't do shit like that because it shows you're at the tipping point of losing control.

Morehouse (who is now retired and does not hold back) had a pretty good discussion thread going on Twitter about his run-ins with Fran which were sometimes undeserved, and he talked about some other coaches who got asked way tougher questions but were way more professional. Basically the consensus is that he's a total asshole, and the other thing that just about all the people said was that he's not someone who they'd want to know in "regular" life. I'm totally fine with that kind of personality as long as he's a clean program coach (which I think he is), because he's there to coach, not be friends.

But, I do think he emotionally shows his hand when he gets the red face going and snaps at people. It's not unlike when people were questioning him a couple years ago about his job and he got pissed and said his "body of work" spoke for itself. He's telling everyone he's run out of things to try and that ain't a good look.

As far as the Hawks...here's my take on it. This team is no different than an overinflated stock market and the bubble has burst. An overinflated stock market is valued way too high by people going off of pundit's made-up expectations instead of reality. It's ok to think at the beginning of a season that a team is going to perform at a super high level. But as the season goes on and it doesn't you have to realize that the team simply wasn't as good as you thought it was to begin with.

And to the people who say this team is so awesome compared to any other...they're not--period. Great teams win important games. Admit that you overshot expectations and move on. Posters like @HaydenHawk56 and @Stanzi think just because a bunch of reporters pulled a #3 out of their asses at the beginning of the season that this was a mid-nineties Duke team set to take over the world. Well, it ain't. If it was they would be winning; it's really that simple. This is a good team no doubt, but the true test of whether a team is elite is how they perform. And this squad isn't holding up to the Big Ten.

You cannot make headway in P6 basketball with a defense performing worse than 150th in Division 1. It's impossible...Well guess what, Iowa has been ranked that bad since almost day 1.

You can't give up 8-10 free throws below your average against good teams and lose a game by 5 points, when if you simply hit your average free throws you would've won the game by 5.

Franuary, or Fran Fade, or whatever you want to call it is real. CBB reference will show anyone that right around January 15th Fran's conference winning % falls off a cliff. It's maths.

This isn't a Hawkeye team getting worse and failing out of nowhere, it's an above average team that is playing to it's ability. But the homers can't see that because they were blinded by bullshit rankings and hype videos, and they're getting pissed. But at the end of the day this team is going to make the tourney, and suggesting otherwise is exaggerated, cry baby horseshit.
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Fryowa said:
Fran has started to lose his shit publicly with reporters, and that's historically a sign that he's lost control of the situation.

Yesterday Emmert asked him after the game why he sat Garza (normal question that he should expect as a P5 basketball coach), and he told the group of reporters "You guys are unbelievable," told Emmert it was a "ridiculous question; you should know better, Mark." And didn't answer the question. Now I totally understand why he was mad, but you can't do shit like that because it shows you're at the tipping point of losing control.

Morehouse (who is now retired and does not hold back) had a pretty good discussion thread going on Twitter about his run-ins with Fran which were sometimes undeserved, and he talked about some other coaches who got asked way tougher questions but were way more professional. Basically the consensus is that he's a total asshole, and the other thing that just about all the people said was that he's not someone who they'd want to know in "regular" life. I'm totally fine with that kind of personality as long as he's a clean program coach (which I think he is), because he's there to coach, not be friends.

But, I do think he emotionally shows his hand when he gets the red face going and snaps at people. It's not unlike when people were questioning him a couple years ago about his job and he got pissed and said his "body of work" spoke for itself. He's telling everyone he's run out of things to try and that ain't a good look.

As far as the Hawks...here's my take on it. This team is no different than an overinflated stock market and the bubble has burst. An overinflated stock market is valued way too high by people going off of pundit's made-up expectations instead of reality. It's ok to think at the beginning of a season that a team is going to perform at a super high level. But as the season goes on and it doesn't you have to realize that the team simply wasn't as good as you thought it was to begin with.

And to the people who say this team is so awesome compared to any other...they're not--period. Great teams win important games. Admit that you overshot expectations and move on. Posters like @HaydenHawk56 and @Stanzi think just because a bunch of reporters pulled a #3 out of their asses at the beginning of the season that this was a mid-nineties Duke team set to take over the world. Well, it ain't. If it was they would be winning; it's really that simple. This is a good team no doubt, but the true test of whether a team is elite is how they perform. And this squad isn't holding up to the Big Ten.

You cannot make headway in P6 basketball with a defense performing worse than 150th in Division 1. It's impossible...Well guess what, Iowa has been ranked that bad since almost day 1.

You can't give up 8-10 free throws below your average against good teams and lose a game by 5 points, when if you simply hit your average free throws you would've won the game by 5.

Franuary, or Fran Fade, or whatever you want to call it is real. CBB reference will show anyone that right around January 15th Fran's conference winning % falls off a cliff. It's maths.

This isn't a Hawkeye team getting worse and failing out of nowhere, it's an above average team that is playing to it's ability. But the homers can't see that because they were blinded by bullshit rankings and hype videos, and they're getting pissed. But at the end of the day this team is going to make the tourney, and suggesting otherwise is exaggerated, cry baby horseshit.
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Fry,

I never said this team was mid-90s Duke. In fact, I said from the very beginning I was cautiously optimistic about this team. I believe Garza is a stud, but I know the history of what has happened under Fran and I also thought we lacked athleticism in our guard play. So although, early in the year, they may have looked Top 5-10ish (and were placed on that mantle) that does not mean that I thought that they should be God's greatest gift to Iowa. It is my belief they needed to prove it and earn it. They are not doing this.

This disappointing thing is, being ranked so high, and having his most veteran team returning with the best player in college basketball and they still having big trouble getting it done in year 11. They still have time to make a run, but every loss hurts their seating.

Also, my other grip is, if he can't get it done....have some top end success with this team...when will he ever at Iowa?

Otherwise, I think you nail it in this post. They are good, but not great....and they have a below average bench coach (with incomplete or uneven recruiting at key positions) with a more visual appealing system over the last 2 coaches that were here prior to him.

And, this pure speculation on my end.....but I truly wonder if behind the scenes...the players don't generally like playing for him. Maybe that is why they look distraught at times because of how they have been treated....and it makes them gun shy. Hence, the lack of mental toughness. They are whipping boys that can do nothing right in the eyes of their King.

One last thing, I think Fran's best job he has done at Iowa was his first few years here. I think he did a wonderful job bringing the program back up from the dead. He bought more into the culture of the program and I remember being at the first NIT game and the place was rocking at Carver. Those were good times.
 
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One huge problem with finishing a strong season is the weight of the expectations Iowa basketball faces compared to other schools. It's just been so long since we won the conference. We need to get over that hump and it will make it all that much easier for the next team.
 
WindsorHawk said:
Quick dose of reality...

Kenpom - 5
Sagarin - 6
NET - 9

Those are our rankings as of today. That’s about as far from the bubble as a team can be.
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What is the point in continuously referring to polls that nobody looks at? Do you seriously believe that Iowa is the 5th best team in the country when we haven’t beaten anybody? I hate to say it but we are closer to a bubble team than those garbage polls.
 
vork22 said:
What is the point in continuously referring to polls that nobody looks at? Do you seriously believe that Iowa is the 5th best team in the country when we haven’t beaten anybody? I hate to say it but we are closer to a bubble team than those garbage polls.
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My apologies if you don’t understand. I’ll try to explain. NET is the NCAA’s own ranking system. I assure you they watch their own ranking system very closely and give it far more weight than the AP, Coaches, etc. While you may not follow Sagarin, Kenpom and NET many people do and give these polls far more attention than the antiquated traditional polls.

Side Note - Even the antiquated polls have Iowa at 15 and 16. Bubble teams aren’t ranked.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
Fry,

So although, early in the year, they may have looked Top 5-10ish
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But they didn't look top 5-10 though, and that's where the media hype and talking head BS comes in. The first half of the year the ranked teams Iowa beat were

North Carolina - fell out of the rankings
Rutgers - fell out of the rankings
Northwestern - fell out of the rankings
Minnesota - fell out of the rankings

The only truly good team they played was Gonzaga and they got piss pounded. That's why all the poll hype is smoke and mirrors bullshit. All it does is whip people into a frenzy and make them pissed of when their team tanks. I get it, I mean I thought this team might have a decent chance too this year, but it became really apparent really quick that this squad isn't up to the task.

Is Fran the culprit? Maybe somewhat. Defense is a huge problem with this team. That's not conjecture; that's fact. His teams have consistently been at the bottom of the barrel in P6 defensive ratings, let alone the conference.

People expect Fran to be able to fix it. Welp, I'll tell you one thing, if you have incoming recruits who suck at defense, you're not going to within a year or two coach them up into being good defenders in major P6 basketball. That's like saying you can take a kid who sucks at fielding and make him into a minor league-level shortstop in a couple years' time. Im-poss-i-ble...... That kinda shit is fundamentals and by the end of high school players either have it or they don't.

But does it excuse the problem? Not really. What it shows is that Fran is a guy who focuses on one type of player...lanky shooters. That doesn't work. There's a long enough history of shit defense on this team that it's apparent he doesn't focus on the non-offensive side of the ball. He puts all of his eggs in the offensive basket and hopes he can beat you by scoring 100 points. That's all fine and dandy until you get squared off with a physical team that gets in your face and frustrates your shooters. When was the last time you saw a McCaffery guard drive to the hole and make baskets consistently in a game? Mike Gessell? Fran's made it just ridiculously easy to game plan Iowa and now it's showing.

Wanna beat the Hawks? Play tempo transitions, drive at Garza (teams know if they can get two fouls on him he's on the bench for the rest of the game), and get in CJ, JBO, and Weezy's faces. How can it get easier than that? You know you're going to get open jumpers and post-ups on the other end because we don't do anything to stop it.

Long story short, this team probably doesn't have what it takes and it's not going to anytime soon. We get the players we get (can't count on a Garza coming in, Fran won the fucking lottery with that one), and we should expect middle of the pack and be tickled when we finish above that. Is getting rid of Fran the answer? Hell no. That is absolutely nothing but a roll of the dice. You have a 50% (probably greater) chance of finding Lick 2.0 and then you guys will really be bitching.

We ain't a blue blood and we ain't ever gonna be one.
 
Fryowa said:
But they didn't look top 5-10 though, and that's where the media hype and talking head BS comes in. The first half of the year the ranked teams Iowa beat were

North Carolina - fell out of the rankings
Rutgers - fell out of the rankings
Northwestern - fell out of the rankings
Minnesota - fell out of the rankings

The only truly good team they played was Gonzaga and they got piss pounded. That's why all the poll hype is smoke and mirrors bullshit. All it does is whip people into a frenzy and make them pissed of when their team tanks. I get it, I mean I thought this team might have a decent chance too this year, but it became really apparent really quick that this squad isn't up to the task.

Is Fran the culprit? Maybe somewhat. Defense is a huge problem with this team. That's not conjecture; that's fact. His teams have consistently been at the bottom of the barrel in P6 defensive ratings, let alone the conference.

People expect Fran to be able to fix it. Welp, I'll tell you one thing, if you have incoming recruits who suck at defense, you're not going to within a year or two coach them up into being good defenders in major P6 basketball. That's like saying you can take a kid who sucks at fielding and make him into a minor league-level shortstop in a couple years' time. Im-poss-i-ble...... That kinda shit is fundamentals and by the end of high school players either have it or they don't.

But does it excuse the problem? Not really. What it shows is that Fran is a guy who focuses on one type of player...lanky shooters. That doesn't work. There's a long enough history of shit defense on this team that it's apparent he doesn't focus on the non-offensive side of the ball. He puts all of his eggs in the offensive basket and hopes he can beat you by scoring 100 points. That's all fine and dandy until you get squared off with a physical team that gets in your face and frustrates your shooters. When was the last time you saw a McCaffery guard drive to the hole and make baskets consistently in a game? Mike Gessell? Fran's made it just ridiculously easy to game plan Iowa and now it's showing.

Wanna beat the Hawks? Play tempo transitions, drive at Garza (teams know if they can get two fouls on him he's on the bench for the rest of the game), and get in CJ, JBO, and Weezy's faces. How can it get easier than that? You know you're going to get open jumpers and post-ups on the other end because we don't do anything to stop it.

Long story short, this team probably doesn't have what it takes and it's not going to anytime soon. We get the players we get (can't count on a Garza coming in, Fran won the fucking lottery with that one), and we should expect middle of the pack and be tickled when we finish above that. Is getting rid of Fran the answer? Hell no. That is absolutely nothing but a roll of the dice. You have a 50% (probably greater) chance of finding Lick 2.0 and then you guys will really be bitching.

We ain't a blue blood and we ain't ever gonna be one.
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I can't really disagree with most of this. Great take Fry. I will say this though, I do believe you can get a coach that can over-achieve with lesser hyped up players. For example, Ferentz seems to do it all the time with certain positions. Could just be he was lucky though, but I do think a coach can help develop player along and help make them better.
 
The good news is we barely lost to the 4th and 5th place team with some bad luck and a starter out. We still look like we belong with the best teams when we play them so we have a chance to beat them. The problem is we also look like we belong with the average teams when we play them too so we have a chance to lose to them.

One other good thing is Bohannon made a huge shot. Been awhile since he's done that. Hopefully it will get him playing better.
 
longtimer said:
Iowa is 7-4 in big Ten with no marquee wins. Looking at the schedule and taking into consideration the fade that is Iowa's signature under Fran I could see us losing to Wisconsin twice Ohio State Michigan and Michigan State on the road with wins this week at home with Rutgers and Penn State. That would put us at 9-9 with no big wins. Hopefully better but even Rutgers is not a sure thing

If there is a big Ten tournament we wont be getting a bye. Still would guess we make the tournament with maybe a 6-8 seed. Likely 1 and done

This is really shaping up to be one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. Still time to turn it around but hard to be optimistic that McCaffrey can push the right buttons

Garza still likely to win player of the year? McCaffrey will have to wait for coach of the year.
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Nailed it! Here I'll prepare you for the inevitable troll. "Who do you think would want to come to Iowa to coach that is better than Fran...." Gee I don't know who wants to be mired in mediocrity with bad coaching decisions for a generation...?
 
2023 folks we've got Fabulous Fran at least until 2023! Oh look just in time to see Patrick graduate. Honestly love the way he fights for his players and I think he's a great Dad and Husband with a character compass pointed North. I have NO issues with Fran other than he's not moving the Men's BBall program forward.

www.hawkcentral.com

Iowa quietly extends Fran McCaffery's contract with huge buyout terms

The basketball coach would be due $10.2 million if fired in the next five months.
www.hawkcentral.com
 
seepig said:
Nailed it! Here I'll prepare you for the inevitable troll. "Who do you think would want to come to Iowa to coach that is better than Fran...." Gee I don't know who wants to be mired in mediocrity with bad coaching decisions for a generation...?
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1st things first, I'm not in favor of replacing Fran. Just for full disclosure.

But, if you're going to call people out for being trolls when they suggest Iowa might not be attractive to better coaches you kinda have to back up your statement.

Who are some suggestions for people you think would be better at the job and willing to come here.? I realize you can't read their minds, but who is it you think would be willing to take over the keys? Maybe Iowa can terminate Fran and go hire a guy who kicked ass at a school like Butler for a few years. That's always a sure bet.:rolleyes:
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
I can't really disagree with most of this. Great take Fry. I will say this though, I do believe you can get a coach that can over-achieve with lesser hyped up players. For example, Ferentz seems to do it all the time with certain positions. Could just be he was lucky though, but I do think a coach can help develop player along and help make them better.
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Here's your answer to the Fran vs Ferentz question about over achieving with certain players.

Capture.JPG

Football also has the aspect of multiple different units being able to carry a team. Basketball doesn't have that. For example we don't have an elite WR or RB corps by SEC/B12 standards, but we have a motherfucker of an OL every year and a defense that wins most of our games. We also have the advantage in football of putting OL, DL, and TEs in the first couple days of the NFL draft which is pretty attractive I'd say. Recruiting in football can be very lopsided (focused on one or two units) and still work out just fine. Another advantage that basketball, especially at Iowa, doesn't have.

Ferentz and Co. is also very consistent with their recruiting. They aren't top 25 every year, but they consistently fill out the report card at a decent place. In football we put multiple very good classes together at the same time. There's no going from 31st to 178th, or 79th to 39th from one year to the next.
 
WindsorHawk said:
My apologies if you don’t understand. I’ll try to explain. NET is the NCAA’s own ranking system. I assure you they watch their own ranking system very closely and give it far more weight than the AP, Coaches, etc. While you may not follow Sagarin, Kenpom and NET many people do and give these polls far more attention than the antiquated traditional polls.

Side Note - Even the antiquated polls have Iowa at 15 and 16. Bubble teams aren’t ranked.
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Any poll that has Iowa at #5 is worthless. I have no issue with #15 even though we are probably not the 15th best team. It just amazes me how some of you are obsessed with these completely inflated rankings. This team when we were #2 or #3 was probably the most overrated team ever.
 
vork22 said:
Any poll that has Iowa at #5 is worthless. I have no issue with #15 even though we are probably not the 15th best team. It just amazes me how some of you are obsessed with these completely inflated rankings. This team when we were #2 or #3 was probably the most overrated team ever.
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We were borderline top 20-ish on KenPom that year we had that really deep NIT run.
 
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