Besides ours there are really only 3 games and 8 possible combined outcomes that affect our bowl destination should we not win the B1G championship (4 games and 16 outcomes if you count Houston-Temple). Since if we win, we're in playoff, I didn't bother with those 8 possibilities.
In the attached charts, the left side shows the possible outcomes and the right side shows a prediction of the likely Top 4 and NY6 bowl pairings for each outcome. They're numbered to correspond. The rankings of 5-11 aren't necessarily accurate, just trying to indicate which teams would be in that range. Teams colored red are Conf champs with automatic entry to the NY6, green are replacement teams for conferences with bowl contacts, and black is at-large. Teams whose box is highlighted red are the ones left out in that scenario.
Let me know if you see any assertions I've made that you think are incorrect. It was trying to be pessimistic but realistic for this analysis. Hence, both STANFORD and UNC jumping OSU with wins. However, I just don't see us falling below 2-loss FSU in any scenario. I didn't try to predict the Rose Bowls selection.
So what did I learn? I don't think even the doomsday scenarios will keep us out of NY6, since the ones that put us on the brink all involve Clemson losing and if Clemson loses that can't help but to keep us above ND and FSU in the rankings. And since I think they will want a southern team in the Peach Bowl I think our odds of Fiesta are much better for us, or if we do go to Peach it would likely be against one of these SEC or ACC teams and not the AAC I think.
Note that scenario #1 is all the favorites winning, so I guess it's the most likely (except that FPI thinks USC has better than average chance to beat Stanford). Also, I updated the tables to include percentages based on FPI, for lack of a better source. It shows that assuming the Rose selection between us and OSU is 50/50, we have the following chances at each bowl:
Cotton 18%
Orange 18%
Rose 35%
Fiesta 27%
Peach 1%
If you think I should plug in a difference percentage for the OSU/Iowa debate let me know, it's simple to do.
Critique (bash) away...
In the attached charts, the left side shows the possible outcomes and the right side shows a prediction of the likely Top 4 and NY6 bowl pairings for each outcome. They're numbered to correspond. The rankings of 5-11 aren't necessarily accurate, just trying to indicate which teams would be in that range. Teams colored red are Conf champs with automatic entry to the NY6, green are replacement teams for conferences with bowl contacts, and black is at-large. Teams whose box is highlighted red are the ones left out in that scenario.
Let me know if you see any assertions I've made that you think are incorrect. It was trying to be pessimistic but realistic for this analysis. Hence, both STANFORD and UNC jumping OSU with wins. However, I just don't see us falling below 2-loss FSU in any scenario. I didn't try to predict the Rose Bowls selection.
So what did I learn? I don't think even the doomsday scenarios will keep us out of NY6, since the ones that put us on the brink all involve Clemson losing and if Clemson loses that can't help but to keep us above ND and FSU in the rankings. And since I think they will want a southern team in the Peach Bowl I think our odds of Fiesta are much better for us, or if we do go to Peach it would likely be against one of these SEC or ACC teams and not the AAC I think.
Note that scenario #1 is all the favorites winning, so I guess it's the most likely (except that FPI thinks USC has better than average chance to beat Stanford). Also, I updated the tables to include percentages based on FPI, for lack of a better source. It shows that assuming the Rose selection between us and OSU is 50/50, we have the following chances at each bowl:
Cotton 18%
Orange 18%
Rose 35%
Fiesta 27%
Peach 1%
If you think I should plug in a difference percentage for the OSU/Iowa debate let me know, it's simple to do.
Critique (bash) away...
