Iowa can win 10 games preseason against teams that anything but tournament contenders.
They have three games with UNI, Creighton, and ISU. They could potentially win two of those games? One is more like it. That would be 10 to 12 wins preseason.
Iowa has 10 games with Northwestern, Indiana, Penn St, Nebraska, and Minnesota. I would hope that Iowa wins five of those at home. If they can win one or more on the road that would be five to seven wins. []BOf the remaining games, Iowa had some very close losses with the remaining teams and beat MSU (I don't remember if we beat any other teams in the top six in the B1G)[/B]. It is not unrealistic to think Iowa will again beat one or two of those teams this year. That would would be five to nine wins.
Who knows, the Hawks might get hot and win one or two in the B1G tournament? That could potentially give the Hawks anywhere from 5 to 11 wins.
Iowa is one year older with seniors on the team who have been through conference play. Experience means a great deal in conference play. Iowa brings a new style of ball that other teams are not used to seeing from Iowa. We do lack depth so injuries are a key to this year's team. A lot of things have to go right for Iowa to come close to 11 wins in the B1G conference and tournament. They could potentially meet teams when teams are not playing well, have key injuries, or just don't play well that night. I suspect Iowa will be no cakewalk at home.
Iowa just needs some breaks and luck, something that has been in short supply in Iowa City for quite a few years.
Saying all of this...I think most people understand what Iowa has this year and are excited because Iowa is going to the opposite direction that Lickliter was taking Iowa. They now play an exciting brand of bb and Fran's recruiting appears to have the program headed in the right way.