College Football Playoff New Ranking
- Thread starter HuckFinn
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NCHawker
Well-Known Member
now I want to see a 24 team bracket so I can enjoy a few hypothetical wins on a dark November night.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
The committee apparently loves Iowa (atta boy to Dannen and Dantonio).
Beat USC....and you got a chip, a chair and a chance.
Beat USC....and you got a chip, a chair and a chance.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Damn. I am a degenerate. I've already broken it down. The path is narrow but legit.
Obviously it involves Iowa winning out. Oregon needs to win out. If Indiana loses, it needs to be in a really competitive championship game with Ohio State.
Other assumptions include the ACC and Big 12 only getting one team in each, which I don't think is much of a stretch.
Other than all that, the single biggest headwind (in my opinion at least) is that Vanderbilt needs to lose again, most likely at Tennessee.
If other games go to chalk (like Oklahoma and Texas losing), in my scenario the SEC gets 4 and the Big Ten gets 4. I think this would be the path of least resistance for the committee, too, and probably what they'd prefer. Iowa's 3 loss resume would need to be perceived as better than any SEC team 3 loss resume, which it probably would be if IN and OR stay top 5 range.
I don't think I initially grasped the significance yesterday of Iowa essentially treading water in the rankings.
Obviously it involves Iowa winning out. Oregon needs to win out. If Indiana loses, it needs to be in a really competitive championship game with Ohio State.
Other assumptions include the ACC and Big 12 only getting one team in each, which I don't think is much of a stretch.
Other than all that, the single biggest headwind (in my opinion at least) is that Vanderbilt needs to lose again, most likely at Tennessee.
If other games go to chalk (like Oklahoma and Texas losing), in my scenario the SEC gets 4 and the Big Ten gets 4. I think this would be the path of least resistance for the committee, too, and probably what they'd prefer. Iowa's 3 loss resume would need to be perceived as better than any SEC team 3 loss resume, which it probably would be if IN and OR stay top 5 range.
I don't think I initially grasped the significance yesterday of Iowa essentially treading water in the rankings.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Pitt, S. Florida and Cinci, all ranked behind us, all still have a shot to make the playoffs because of their weak ass conference affiliations. All could win their conference or theoretically still squeeze in as an at large bid (less likely) So, that is why they go out to 25, to let all the teams still in play know where they stand in terms of committee respect.
As for Iowa being 21? I was shocked. Good to see smart football people understanding what good football looks like outside the blue bloods.
I listened to the ANF Podcast and they make a good point. Iowa is going to have to move up to #10 in the rankings because if you are 11 or 12 you could get pushed out by the Group of 5 and ACC qualifiers.
Not sure how that lines up with your analysis but sure seems to make it a narrow path.
Michigan is ahead of us, and would be 9-3 too. Unless they get destroyed by tOSU, I don't think we jump them. In your scenario, we would have a better common opponent victory in USC. I was looking forward to visiting The Coliseum this weekend, but we are going to get rained on all weekend. Bodes well for the Hawks though.
HuckFinn
Well-Known Member
Absolutely.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I assumed Iowa is in a pool of 10, with the ACC entrant and Group of 5 as the two others. That also assumes Notre Dame is in the 10. I'd love to see them take a dump at Pitt this weekend but I don't think that's likely.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
The Hawks would have the stronger resume. Two extremely close losses to top 5 or 6 teams, while Michigan would only have one of its losses in that category. The other losses would be to Oklahoma (at least a 3 loss team in this scenario) and an 18 point loss to USC.
Fryowa
Administrator
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
There is no path fellas. losing to Oregon took care of that.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
If Hawks win out, it's really not that crazy of a path. It doesn't really involve upsets either.
It does assume the Big 12 and ACC only get one team each, which a lot of folks in the college football world seem to think will be the case. If you go off that assumption (which may or may not hold), then 6 teams ahead of Iowa peel out right there. There seems to be some discussion that the committee is thinking these are one bid leagues with how they've ranked teams. The most realistic exception to this would be if Texas Tech makes it to 11-1 and then gets upset in the championship game.
So assuming the top 9 don't fall out, now you are only talking about Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Michigan for the 10th spot. (Assume Texas Tech stays in there as the Big 12 champ, and an ACC school and group of 5 fill out the 11th and 12th spot).
Look at Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Michigan's schedules and tell me who doesn't get a third loss, and for those who do, which resume is better than Iowa's at that point?
I think you'd probably say Vanderbilt won't lose at Tennessee. But that's probably a coin flip, isn't it?
If Vandy holds, then you have to hope Notre Dame loses at Pitt this weekend.
All of these outcomes lining up probably won't happen, but it's not like crazy upsets need to unfold. As long as Iowa, Oregon and Indiana win out and look good, Iowa should re-enter the conversation as the next few weeks unfold and teams lose. Obviously a long shot, but just keep winning and enjoy the long shot speculation!
