Clinching Scenarios

K

KCRC

Well-Known Member
What a great season our Hawks are having!!! To add to the fun and anticipation of what we might accomplish, I thought I'd start and update a thread that marks each time the Hawks mathematically eliminate an opponent in the BIG standings and provide the possible scenarios for the next game. This isn't a prediction thread. There is another thread for that. This thread is for actual mathematical accomplishments in the BIG standings as the season unfolds.

February 3, 2016
Iowa 73 PSU 49
Iowa 9-1

Eliminations:
Minnesota 0-10
Rutgers 0-10

Scenarios:
Iowa can eliminate Penn State with a win (@ Illinois Feb. 7) AND a Penn State loss (vs. Indiana Feb. 6)
 
I figure 8-0 will do it. :)

So I guess our magic number to clinch at least a share is now 8.

If we can at least split with Indiana, I love our chances.
 
The competition:
Indiana has games @PSU
Iowa
@MSU
Neb
PUR
@ILL
@Iowa
MD
Maryland has games: PUR
BSU
WIS
@MINN
MICH
@PUR
ILL
@IND
 
KCRC said:
Scenarios:
Iowa can eliminate Penn State with a win (@ Illinois Feb. 7) AND a Penn State loss (vs. Indiana Feb. 6)
Click to expand...
If my math is correct, a win tomorrow at Illinois would eliminate the Illini. The best they could hope for would be a tie record wise and the Hawks would hold the tie breaker. Am I wrong?

GO HAWKS!!!
 
Last edited:
BrueCrew3 said:
If my math is correct, a win today at Illinois would eliminate the Illini. The best they could hope for would be a tie record wise and the Hawks would hold the tie breaker. Am I wrong?

GO HAWKS!!!
Click to expand...

You are correct that with a win tomorrow, Illinois could only tie Iowa. Iowa would have the tie-breaker in a head to head tiebreaker. However, it's theoretically possible that Iowa, Illinois and another team could end up in a three way tie. In that case, it's too early to say with mathematical certainty (i.e. I'm too lazy to look up the tiebreaker rules this early in the season) that Illinois couldn't win that three way tiebreaker. That being said, we're splitting hairs over an elimination that is eventually inevitable.
 
KCRC said:
You are correct that with a win tomorrow, Illinois could only tie Iowa. Iowa would have the tie-breaker in a head to head tiebreaker. However, it's theoretically possible that Iowa, Illinois and another team could end up in a three way tie. In that case, it's too early to say with mathematical certainty (i.e. I'm too lazy to look up the tiebreaker rules this early in the season) that Illinois couldn't win that three way tiebreaker. That being said, we're splitting hairs over an elimination that is eventually inevitable.
Click to expand...
My mistake, on both the day (corrected) and math. Besides, 10-8 isn't going to win the league this year.

GO HAWKS!!!
 
You can tie for the Big 10 conference champion so unless you're talking about seeding in the Big 10 Tournament, tiebreakers don't matter.
 
PCHawk said:
You can tie for the Big 10 conference champion so unless you're talking about seeding in the Big 10 Tournament, tiebreakers don't matter.
Click to expand...

That's the pvssy way out. Real teams know that winning the conference tournament is all that matters.
 
Would have been nice to see Maryland lose but Michigan and Purdue losses put a lot of teams at least three out. Indiana or Maryland is guaranteed another loss since they play each other so chances are very, very good we finish at least 3rd and pretty good we finish at least second. Hell, they're pretty good for us to win this thing
 
Penn St's win over Indiana prevented an elimination for the time being, but Indiana's loss helps Iowa's long-term chance of winning the BIG regular season title. Here is the math from today's win until Iowa's next game at Indiana on Thursday.

February 7, 2016
Iowa 77 Illinois 65
Iowa 10-1

Current Eliminations:
None

Previous Eliminations:
Minnesota 0-10 Feb. 3
Rutgers 0-10 Feb. 3

Scenarios:
- Iowa (10-1) can eliminate Penn State (3-8) with a win @ Indiana Feb. 11 (PSU does not play again until Feb. 13)
- Iowa (10-1) can eliminate Illinois (3-8) with a win @ Indiana Feb. 11 (Illinois does not play again until Feb. 13)
- Iowa (10-1) can eliminate Northwestern (4-7) with a win @ Indiana Feb. 11 AND a Northwestern loss @ Ohio State Feb. 9

Magic Number to win BIG regular season championship outright over 2nd place Maryland is 7​.
 
Michigan State @Purdue and home against Indiana should provide some separation at least from one or two teams. Maryland plays at home next weekend against Wisconsin. Badgers are kind of lurking in the shadows.
 
Last night did not turn out like we all hoped. On the bright side, if at the beginning of the season you would have offered a tie for first place after 12 conference games, we all would have taken it. 6 games to go and 11 teams left to eliminate. Let's get started this weekend.

February 11, 2016
Iowa 78 Indiana 85
Iowa 10-2

Current Eliminations:
None

Previous Eliminations:
Minnesota 0-10 Feb. 3
Rutgers 0-10 Feb. 3

Scenarios:
- Iowa (10-2) can eliminate Penn State (3-8) with a win vs. Minnesota Feb. 14 OR a PSU loss @ Nebraska Feb. 13
- Iowa (10-2) can eliminate Illinois (3-8) with a win vs. Minnesota Feb. 14 OR an Illinois loss @ Northwestern Feb. 13
- Iowa (10-2) can eliminate Northwestern (4-8) with a win vs. Minnesota Feb. 14 OR a Northwestern loss vs. Illinois Feb. 13
- Iowa (10-2) can eliminate Nebraska (5-7) with a win vs. Minnesota Feb. 14 AND a Nebraska loss vs. PSU Feb. 13

Magic Number to win BIG regular season championship outright over Maryland and Indiana remains at 7​.
 
An ugly win is still a win. Expect all games to be tough from here on in. 5 games remaining for 8 more eliminations

February 14, 2016

Iowa 75 Minnesota 71
Iowa 11-2

Current Eliminations:
Illinois 3-9
Penn State 3-9
Northwestern 5-8

Previous Eliminations:
Minnesota 0-10 Feb. 3
Rutgers 0-10 Feb. 3

Scenarios:
- Iowa (11-2) can eliminate Nebraska (6-7) with a win @ PSU Feb. 17 OR a Nebraska loss @ Indiana Feb. 17

Magic Number to win BIG regular season championship outright over Maryland and Indiana now at 5​.
 
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