chances of winning next 5 games is 13%

[Cardinals54]

@Indiana is a scary one because of the offense.

For some reason Minnesota scares the crap out of me simply because I was at the game last year and left at halftime because it was so out hard to watch. Plus this year its a 7pm game in the middle of November so its going to be really cold. That should favor the team with the better defense and running game...which is Iowa.

I just don't want the B1G title game to come down to @Nebraska. Wisconsin probably won't lose another game this year so Iowa can probably only lose 1 game to make it to Indy. If they're going into Lincoln with 1 loss already and it comes down to that game...its going to be real scary.

I was a little skittish about Indiana and their offense also...until Saturday when I watched Rutgers hang 55 on them. They won't put up 52 on Iowa. We might very well put up 55 on them. After viewing that game, I'm no longer too concerned. Look, we can look at every game left and see pitfalls and 'worst cases' in all of them. Get healthy, stay focused, play the games right, and things will take care of themselves. I'm not looking at the next 5 games...only the next game. When there's one left, THEN I'll start considering our chances of winning these 5. All that said, in regards to Wisky, do we not in essence have a 2 game lead on them due to the tiebreaker and winning head to head?? (Northwestern and Illinois also at this point.) Not sure how the tiebreaker criteria shakes out. I've had the impression that every division loss was equal to a 2 game swing (if tied with the team you're playing) If I'm incorrect, any info would be greatly appreciated.

 

[papahawk]

I calculate the chances of Iowa winning its next 5 games in a row as 13%. Thats about a 1 in 8 chance.

Even though Iowa will be favored in all 5 games, the odds of winning all 5 games are actually pretty high compared to your average season. Normally it would be in the 0 to 3% range, so 13% is actually pretty high.

Still, Iowa fans need to keep everything in perspective. The odds are heavily against Iowa going undefeated.

 

[papahawk]

So what were our chances , preseason of being 7-0 at this point? All I know is that we need to go 1-0 for each remaining game and forget being 12-0 at the end of the regular season!

 

[Hunz]

The only thing I'm somewhat worried about is that I think every team that we play will have an Iowa State mentality coming into the game and they will want to knock off the perfect Hawks.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The only thing I'm somewhat worried about is that I think every team that we play will have an Iowa State mentality coming into the game and they will want to knock off the perfect Hawks.

That is what makes this super fun, IMO, especially when you have a bruising style and the team likes to pummel people in the trenches. We can either be relevant like we are now or go back to the last 2 years. I'll take this any day!

 

[Hawkcrush]

Alright Doc Brown--How many jigawatts and how fast to travel back to 2002? I predict 100% chance I think your 13% is pulled out of your ###.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

FIFY.

made my day, Dean!

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Iowa will win the remaining games if it doesn't lose another o lineman or cjb. They are running teams over at this point, like they did in 02.

Watch the online push and the closing speed of our linebackers. It's sickening thinking of the hits they are putting on people.

EXACTLY! It's time to finish what they started and, based on performance to date, barring a complete mental or injury implosion, there is every reason to believe the Hawks WILL win out.

Not to mention, if we're gonna call out College Football America to give Iowa it's due and recognize the quality of the 7-0 start, against the toughest part of the schedule with so many key injuries, it only follows that winning out against the weakest part of the schedule should be EXPECTED.

13% is an insult! I'm going with 95% chance of 12-0; 10% chance of 13-0; 1% chance of 14-0; 0.1% chance of 15-0.

 

[BigD]

Maryland up next. No one else matters at this point.

 

[bigjim]

I'm just putting my focus on getting by the Terps. I try not to look ahead, just take it one game at a time. I'm still pinching myself just to make sure I'm not dreaming! Lol. GO HAWKS!

 

[hawkation]

The probability of independent events is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of the individual events.

P(A&B) = P(A) * P(B)

Using the probabilities of each game as provided by okieviaiowa our likelihood of going 5-0 is approximately 26%.

I tend to believe this probability. I don't see any references to farmersonly.com or farm animals so I know he's not a cyclone fan.

 

[FCAS]

The probability of independent events is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of the individual events.

P(A&B) = P(A) * P(B)

Using the probabilities of each game as provided by okieviaiowa our likelihood of going 5-0 is approximately 26%.

The remaining games are NOT independent events, so the formula does not apply. For example, if Iowa convincingly beats Maryland, this would have upward pressure on Iowa's odds of beating Indiana. Likewise, if Indiana beats MSU (or keeps the game close), that would have a downward impact on Iowa's odds of beating Indiana.

 

[dualradius]

78% chance against Indiana? No way it's that high.

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

Don't see where you get 13%. The opponents are really bad. Minny and Nebraska are the two best left. Don't see Iowa losing at home so that eliminates Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota. Minny might be a bit beat up after Michigan and Ohio State get done with them. Nebraska is dangerous for Iowa, but they have Michigan State before Iowa. Odds will go up with every game won. But the odds now are better than 13%

 

[PCHawk]

I'm just putting my focus on getting by the Terps. I try not to look ahead, just take it one game at a time. I'm still pinching myself just to make sure I'm not dreaming! Lol. GO HAWKS!

Good to hear. We really need you to stay focused for that game. If you lose focus for even one second while sitting in the stands or in front of the tv, our dream of being undefeated will be over.

 

[mopkins]

That nebraska game is a downright scary one. Iowa is playing on short rest and nebraska is coming off their bye week. Plus it's in Nebraska...and their record is very misleading. On a side note I'd be ****** if I was nebraska and your bye came one week before the end of the season.

If iowa somehow got to that game undefeated nebraska would have nothing to lose and iowa would have almost everything to lose. Sure we'd still make the big ten title game which says a lot but nebraska fans will never let us stop hearing about the year they ruined our perfect season.

Ps I'm not getting ahead of myself one bit

 

[JLCHawk]

@Indiana is a scary one because of the offense.

For some reason Minnesota scares the crap out of me simply because I was at the game last year and left at halftime because it was so out hard to watch. Plus this year its a 7pm game in the middle of November so its going to be really cold. That should favor the team with the better defense and running game...which is Iowa.

I just don't want the B1G title game to come down to @Nebraska. Wisconsin probably won't lose another game this year so Iowa can probably only lose 1 game to make it to Indy. If they're going into Lincoln with 1 loss already and it comes down to that game...its going to be real scary.

Indiana's defense is their weak point again. If you look at their record;
Southern Ill Won 48-47
FIU Won 36-22
W. Kentucky Won 38-35
Wake Forest Won 31-24
Ohio State Lost 34-27
Penn State Lost 29-7
Rutgers Lost 55-52 after leading 52-27
Iowa should be able to run a lot of time off the clock. The Iowa defense has held some pretty good teams to low production so far.
Not saying this is a sure win, but I like our odds.

 

[guffus]

just how did you calculate said chances.

Sorry, I have been distracted by work of all things since I first posted.

Many of you guessed right. Its a simple probability formula. Its just the odds of winning against each team multiplied together

(MD) X (@Indy) X (Minn) X (Pur) X (@Neb)

Only some of my odds of winning each game were not as high as BHGP, which is why mine came out to 13% instead of 26%. For example, I guessed the odds of winning @Indy as only 60%. So it was something like this.

.8 X .6 X .6 X .8 X .55 = 13%

But I would not get too hung up on the actual number I calculated. I will concede BHGP is probably a more accurate number at 26%.

But my main point was that the odds are not great Iowa will go undefeated even though they will favored in almost every game.

 

[joshmott123]

The remaining games are NOT independent events, so the formula does not apply. For example, if Iowa convincingly beats Maryland, this would have upward pressure on Iowa's odds of beating Indiana. Likewise, if Indiana beats MSU (or keeps the game close), that would have a downward impact on Iowa's odds of beating Indiana.

They are independent events.

You cannot quantify "pressure" or "will to win". As such, you have to treat these as independent events. I'm not saying that pressure can't impact a game but there is no way to quantify whether it did or didn't, regardless of the result.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Objective upward pressure on independent subjective events ... that's why I kept it very simple ...

As of this minute ... based on going 7-0 against the best teams with a rash of injuries, getting healthier, playing teams that Sagarin predicts Hawks should beat by 23, 17, 20, 29 and 6, respectively, I give the Hawks a 99% chance of winning each remaining game. .99 to the 5th = 95% chance of going 5-0.

Send out the memo and let's just head to Indianapolis, right now!