MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Out of curiosity, does anybody remember what Vegas had the 2015 Iowa team going prior to the start of the season?
CFB Matrix Contributor says analytics like Iowa
- Thread starter InGoodCo
- Start date
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
1. most coaches don't get to have 19 years of data to pick from 2. there's a literally only a handful of coaches that don't lose games to underdogs 3. I'd like a list of coaches that coach at a similar types of program that are better?
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
PS... I can think of some, I just sometimes wonder what you guys are looking for and who you think is out there that could magically fix Iowa football.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Also, it's the damn shame that for all those MAC loses, KF has beaten plenty of giants too that other coaches would like to have on their resume. It's easy to see why so many get frustrated with him, so please don't take my posts as stand offish. I'm just of the opinion that the Iowa program and KF is far from this horrible suck toy that you guys wallow in.
DBAHawkFan
Well-Known Member
I think the issue is more that when Iowa is a double digit favorite, they nearly a dozen more losses than other teams in our conference under the same circumstances. Wisconsin has lost something like one or two games over the same time period when they are favored by 10+.
You cut our losses in half, and I think 99% of us would look at KF differently.
You cut our losses in half, and I think 99% of us would look at KF differently.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Wisci > then Iowa the last 20 years, you'll get no argument from me. So, there's 1.
Save you Ohio States and Bama's and other blue bloods... Wisci is a good comparison. I would consider Minne, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, K-state, Pitt, Missouri, Michigan State... programs in the similar neighborhood. Those programs have all had coaches that lost as big favorites.
Yeah that's the conundrum that is KF and Iowa football in a nutshell. Iowa has been able to knock off some of the best. And they've done it without being gimmicky. Just strait up make you earn it football. So when Iowa plays to the level of their competition and loses to ISU and lessor teams (way more often then they should I might add) it's what fuels the questions. It's just hard to pin down expectations for a team like Iowa because you just don't know when they might pull out a 12-0 or 10-2 season. Which to me is in a way pretty fun and makes the journey of following them awesome. Iowa I'm afraid isn't going to get to OSU or Bamas level. What I mean by that is they aren't going to have preseason expectations year after year of being in the top 4. Where not winning the championship is a disappointment let alone just making the playoffs.
I feel getting to the playoffs should be the goal of every team. Winning the BIG West I think is what KF has always expressed as a goal. However with an 8-4 or 9-3 record and no shot at making the playoffs I feel your short changing yourself and the kids. I'd like to think we can get to the playoffs. Maybe not every single year but like I said I'd like to see that be the expressed goal and interest of the coaches. Not just winning the West
Fryowa
Administrator
Just to be clear, I'm not a strict KF hater and there aren't a whole lot of available coaches out there who I'd replace him with, if any. I'm more neutral on him than anything.
My main beefs with the guy are his passive-aggressive style and more so the fact that he loses so often to huge underdogs (I'm looking at you, Iowa State). I hate losing to MAC and FCS teams with probably a 50th of our budget and facilities more than I love beating a Michigan or Penn State. If we're going to give up a non-con anyway then we might as well stop with the cupcakes and schedule games against a real school. It'd be great for fans, TV, and wouldn't sting like losing to the Upper Southwestern Rhode Island Polytechnic Songbirds.
A .500 ISU record over 18 years and losses to teams like Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, NDSU shouldn't happen. I get all the "But NDSU was good!!" stuff, but let's be honest. If they were P5 caliber they'd be in a P5 conference.
Hopefully this team might be at a turning point where we go Hayden style and stop losing to State. I hope so.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
IMO - none of those teams are good and Iowa had no business losing to them. .500 vs ISU is inexcusable as well. I just think you're gonna have the same or similar results with any coach you replace him with and quite possibly not have the highs either. KF runs a clean, developmental program that's been borderline top 25 on average during his tenure. I just don't want to wish away something that's been that consistently good, on occasion great, and seldom flat out bad. That's just my opinion - I know it's not popular.
ArvadaHawk
Well-Known Member
like .500 against both ISU and NW? NW has surpassed Iowa under Fitz. So, we can all say life is great, or we can take a critical look at things. There are definite deficiencies in the program. sure seems like they're part of what's acceptable, way too often. You're right that most coaches don't get 19 years at a school. The reason is because coaches are held to expectations and if they don't meet them, they're gone. Look, if ferentz didn't have such a lifetime guarantee to his contract, you can bet there would have been plenty of heat '12 & '13 for him to go. But Iowa couldn't afford it. It is what it is, right? And at Iowa, it "is" is accepting MAC losses, .500 to NW and ISU and not securing skill position talent sufficient to compete at the B1G level. If some are willing to trade a loss to Western Michigan for a win over UM, that's great. I am just not willing to do so. If we can beat UM, why do we have to lose to MAC?
Adam McClintock from CFB Matrix says this is what their analytics say about the B1G this season. He describes these projections on no opinion - just #'s ..... go ahead and sign me up for that now.
Is this a paid for subscription? If not, could you link it? Thanks
Fryowa
Administrator
Fryowa
Administrator
Also keep in mind that he posts his personal projections (the one I linked from Twitter) which have us behind Nebraska and are way worse than his model. Probably because he thinks (like most of us) that Iowa cannot have a 9-3 season in this league and with this roster. Rose colored glasses hurt us in the end usually.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
yeah, I saw that... but that was his personal opinion - To be honest, I trust his # based unbiased formula more. I think Iowa is the 2nd best team in the West this season but I don't know that the record is gonna bare that out. Out of the contenders, Iowa has the hardest crossover games and well, that matters. If Iowa can somehow find a way to split with PSU and TOSU I really like Iowa's chances to win 9 games which I think would be a terrific season.
and there is no link that I know of, I just follow him on Twitter. Adam McClintock - but I think his stuff goes up on cfbmatrix.com
Ree4
Well-Known Member
The big problem with this statement is that Vegas lines are based on perception and not necessarily reality.
Fryowa
Administrator
That may be true, but their ass is collectively on the line (money), whereas the media windbags' is not. All the Paul Finebaums of the world care about are ratings and keeping their jobs. They have no dog in the fight of being correct or not.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
<<NW has surpassed Iowa under Fitz>>
Really? I seem to remember them "passing" us under Barnett vs. Fry.
How many BCS-level bowls has Fitz been in with NW?
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
How can you even say NW has surpassed Iowa? Iowa won more games last year. Iowa won more games in 2015. Iowa won more games in 2014. Iowa won more games in 2013. The last time Northwestern finished a season with more wins than Iowa was in 2012. Iowa won more games in 2011, Iowa won more games in 2010, Iowa won more games in 2009.
ArvadaHawk
Well-Known Member
Gary Barnett @ NW:
1992: 3-8
1993: 2-9
1994: 3-7-1
1995: 10-2
1996: 9-3
1997: 5-7
1998: 3-9
Barnett and 2 winning seasons @NW.
Kirk Ferentz is 5-6 against Pat Fitzgerald. So, if NW hasn't surpassed Iowa, why do we have a losing record against them?
I agree with Fryowa here because #1 KF many times does not have the hawks ready or fired up or something in September and #2 KF has that poor record losing to teams when the hawks are favored by double digits. I have been saying for years that KF's in game coaching style leads to one loss a year at least to a team the hawks should beat. It is part of the overall equation. If you remember there were signs in Sept of 2014 of how sluggish the offense would be with a returning QB and other good players as they barely beat that MAC Redbirds team. And then boom the offense has a bad game and they lose to ISU at home. I have come to expect us to lose these types of games to NIU (even though they were very good in 2013) and Central and Western Mich, to NDSU and almost to UNI when the hawks had a really good team.
Sept hardly a good time for Iowa and then they stub their toe once or twice a year against some Big 10 teams ala Minny in 2010 and 2011 when Minny was terrible.
