Bubble Watch

DDThompson said:
Yesterday I would have said they are close to a lock. I've watched them a couple times and they do have the look of a tournament team even though their quality wins are lacking.

After today's egg-laying I think they are 50/50 -- which means waiting to see what other bubbles do.

I think the door swung a little wider open for Iowa.
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Looks like we are going to kick that door wide open anyways. I just have the feeling that this team is on a war path and would not be even a little surprised to see us winning several more in a row. I still only expect us to win 1 though. It's looking like Indiana is our likely opponent. Playing Indiana on a neutral court is so perfect. They have a 47 RPI and have clout with the Non Con wins they have at the beginning of the season. I still believe beating them is enough to get in, but I do feel like this team might just be soaring right now and I'm not sure there is anyone in the B1G that can stop them. It will be fun to watch but as an Iowa fan I am constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hell though my Cubbies did it so why not my hawks. Let's go run the wheels off this bus.
 
Adam said:
Looks like we are going to kick that door wide open anyways. I just have the feeling that this team is on a war path and would not be even a little surprised to see us winning several more in a row. I still only expect us to win 1 though. It's looking like Indiana is our likely opponent. Playing Indiana on a neutral court is so perfect. They have a 47 RPI and have clout with the Non Con wins they have at the beginning of the season. I still believe beating them is enough to get in, but I do feel like this team might just be soaring right now and I'm not sure there is anyone in the B1G that can stop them. It will be fun to watch but as an Iowa fan I am constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hell though my Cubbies did it so why not my hawks. Let's go run the wheels off this bus.
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The cool thing is even if the other shoe drops, at least we made it to the end of the year with hope. This was the 5th season in a row that was fun as hell to watch.
 
PCHawk said:
The cool thing is even if the other shoe drops, at least we made it to the end of the year with hope. This was the 5th season in a row that was fun as hell to watch.
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Agreed and I'm not negging Fran or any players past or present, but man I really want a Final 4 in my lifetime (I know asking for an NC is too much). I wasn't around for the 50's or the 80 teams. For the first time in my 25 years of living and breathing Iowa basketball every winter, I have never had more hope and anticipation that it could happen again. I believe the pieces are here already and I believe the future additions are as promising as ever.
 
ssckelley said:
You both can come back and tell me I'm wrong if ISU doesn't get in. No way they get left out IMO.
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Illinois State's loss drops them into at-large pool, where I have them as "Last Team In." In other words, they are likely to be passed between now and next Sunday. It's not how I would vote, but it's hard to be optimistic given recent Committee emphasis.

i
Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
 
Illinois State--They're 2-4 against the top 100, have two sub-100 losses and got lit up twice by Wichita State.

No idea what the committee will do with them.
 
Adam said:
Agreed and I'm not negging Fran or any players past or present, but man I really want a Final 4 in my lifetime (I know asking for an NC is too much). I wasn't around for the 50's or the 80 teams. For the first time in my 25 years of living and breathing Iowa basketball every winter, I have never had more hope and anticipation that it could happen again. I believe the pieces are here already and I believe the future additions are as promising as ever.
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I truly believe we will have final 4 caliber teams in 2 and 3 years. The trick will be getting there in a tournament setting without getting upset.
 
PCHawk said:
The cool thing is even if the other shoe drops, at least we made it to the end of the year with hope. This was the 5th season in a row that was fun as hell to watch.
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This has been a very fun season to watch. One of my favorites in a long time. And as you said the last 5 have been fun. Except for 2013-2014. That team was very talented and they just imploded, especially on the defensive end. They only won 4 games after January. I like Fran but that that season was an epic disaster.
 
Adam said:
Looks like we are going to kick that door wide open anyways. I just have the feeling that this team is on a war path and would not be even a little surprised to see us winning several more in a row. I still only expect us to win 1 though. It's looking like Indiana is our likely opponent. Playing Indiana on a neutral court is so perfect. They have a 47 RPI and have clout with the Non Con wins they have at the beginning of the season. I still believe beating them is enough to get in, but I do feel like this team might just be soaring right now and I'm not sure there is anyone in the B1G that can stop them. It will be fun to watch but as an Iowa fan I am constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hell though my Cubbies did it so why not my hawks. Let's go run the wheels off this bus.
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Indiana does not have a 47 RPI???? They are in the 90's and have no shot but to win the BTT. A win over them does nothing for our RPI but MUST happen for the Dance.
 
99topdawg said:
Illinois State--They're 2-4 against the top 100, have two sub-100 losses and got lit up twice by Wichita State.

No idea what the committee will do with them.
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Lunardi has them as the last team in, which right now is right where they should be. And after even ONE bubble team makes a run, they are out cause they cannot help their cause anymore.
 
99topdawg said:
Illinois State's loss drops them into at-large pool, where I have them as "Last Team In." In other words, they are likely to be passed between now and next Sunday. It's not how I would vote, but it's hard to be optimistic given recent Committee emphasis.

i
Joe Lunardi, Senior Writer, ESPN.com
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Weird, he had them as an 11 seed before not even the last 8 in. The 20 point loss does hurt.

If I'm wrong, fine, not the first time and won't be the last. I find it hard to believe a 27-6 Missouri Valley team gets left out.
 
ssckelley said:
Weird, he had them as an 11 seed before not even the last 8 in. The 20 point loss does hurt.

If I'm wrong, fine, not the first time and won't be the last. I find it hard to believe a 27-6 Missouri Valley team gets left out.
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Most years I would agree, but the MVC was bad this year. Two good teams and a whole bunch of, frankly, bad teams. That isn't going to help the Fredbirds.
 
Xerxes said:
This has been a very fun season to watch. One of my favorites in a long time. And as you said the last 5 have been fun. Except for 2013-2014. That team was very talented and they just imploded, especially on the defensive end. They only won 4 games after January. I like Fran but that that season was an epic disaster.
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The end of that year sucked so bad. After that piece fell off the ceiling at Indiana, our team went to crap. Our defense was bad, but there was a stretch of games where the opponents couldn't shoot as good as they did in an open gym. Every team we played was on fire.
 
HawksMN said:
Indiana does not have a 47 RPI???? They are in the 90's and have no shot but to win the BTT. A win over them does nothing for our RPI but MUST happen for the Dance.
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Sorry they are 46 in Kenpom ranking. I remembered it backwards. Either way I still think that playing Indiana the right amount of upside with a lower risk for upset.
 
ssckelley said:
Weird, he had them as an 11 seed before not even the last 8 in. The 20 point loss does hurt.

If I'm wrong, fine, not the first time and won't be the last. I find it hard to believe a 27-6 Missouri Valley team gets left out.
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I really have no idea how this loss affects them. I think being in a traditionally strong conference and going 17-1 makes them seem like a lock, but looking into it a bit, I realize how weak the conference is. I'm with you, though, I'll believe they're out when I see it on Sunday.
 
We go 1-1 in the BTT we're right at the tipping point of getting into the play-in game imo. Then it comes down to rooting for mid major teams who are going to go to the dance anyway to win their conference tournament.

Who among us wouldn't have signed up for the play-in game three weeks ago? Would be a semi-miracle to even see us get into that.
 
I wish I understood how a team could be 32 in Sagarin and 47 in Kenpom with a worse record than we have against Top 25 and Top 100 like Indiana is. Their RPI is lower (81 ) right now- how are they so much higher in these other rankings?
 
DMLadyhawk said:
I wish I understood how a team could be 32 in Sagarin and 47 in Kenpom with a worse record than we have against Top 25 and Top 100 like Indiana is. Their RPI is lower (81 ) right now- how are they so much higher in these other rankings?
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I think a lot has to do with margin of victory.
 
DMLadyhawk said:
I wish I understood how a team could be 32 in Sagarin and 47 in Kenpom with a worse record than we have against Top 25 and Top 100 like Indiana is. Their RPI is lower (81 ) right now- how are they so much higher in these other rankings?
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That is why most of that stuff is hot air. IU has no shot but to win out now. IL must win to BTT title game. Iowa win to the semis. I like where we are at.
 
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