Breaking Down Iowa's 2013 FB schedule by returning starters

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa's football schedule in 2012 was one of the more favorable I can recall, which makes their 4-8 record and six-game losing streak all the more painful to swallow some two months after the season has ended.

There's always next year, right? What does the 2013 schedule look like? Phil Steele posted a blog today on returning starters for each of the FBS teams next year. This stat has taken a bit of a 'prestige hit' over the years as being a major indicator of a team's strength for an upcoming season, but I still like to look at it and believe if you return more starting experience you have a decent chance of being better than you were.

Here are the team's on Iowa's schedule, their returning starters and where that ranks out of 124 teams in the FBS. I have included Iowa's ranking in this mix and Missouri State is not listed as they are not an FBS team.

t17-Minnesota (16): 10 on offense and six on defense (return quarterback)
t24-Michigan State (15): Eight on offense (Four OL) and seven on defense (return QB, but will be a battle. Lost Bell, Gholston and Sims to early NFL declaration)
t24-Northwestern (15): Eight on offense and seven on defense (return quarterbacks)
t24-Wisconsin (15): Eight on offense (Three OL) and seven on defense (Three DL) (return quarterback)
t41-Iowa (14): Seven on offense and seven on defense
t58-Nebraska (13): Nine on offense (Four OL) and four on defense (just one DL) (return quarterback)
t58-Ohio State (13): Nine on offense (Four OL) and four on defense (zero OL) (return quarterback)
t58-Purdue (13): Five on offense (Three OL) and eight on defense (Three DL)
t88-Michigan (12): Six on offense (Two OL) and six on defense (two DL)
t88-Northern Illinois (12): Eight on offense (four OL) and four on defense (one DL) (return QB)
t112-Western Michigan (10): Two on offense (one OL) and eight on defense (one DL)
t117-Iowa State (9): Five on offense (Three OL) and four on defense (one DL)

Interesting to note: T1-Indiana (19): 10 on offense (Four OL) and nine on defense (return QB but will be a battle)

Seven of Iowa's 11 FBS opponents will return their starting quarterback and Michigan also returns a player with starting experience.
 


I suspect injured starters returning convolutes those rankings. That said according to Steele's point system of experienced players and starters we came into last season at 100th, and 11th in the conference. Injuries and transitional issues(defensively, and offensively) aside that was a big hurdle to overcome. Yes, the schedule was weak but we lost by 3 points to ISU, a point to CMU(after a successful on-side kick recovery was taken back because of a CMU penalty), three point losses to Purdue and Indiana and a 6 point loss in what should of been a win to the bug eaters. IMO, Schreff was our most important offensive player other than QB(who way underperformed, and some of that probably wasn't his fault). His loss really hurt and coupled with the loss of Donnal in the same time frame probably cost us a close game or two. A double whammy for the "go to" side of a already badly struggling offense. The schedule is pretty fearsome this year, but I think this is a 7 win kind of season: Missouri State, WMU, ISU, Minny, NIU, Purdue and MSU(Bell was easily their MVP and their passing game is shaky additionally they have big loses on defense). Hard to count on those games as wins but consider that we were in every game last year but PSU and UM. Right now I put OSU, UM, and UW as clear favorites against us, with Nebraska and Northwestern as small favorites. The talent level in the 2010-2012 recruiting classes were significantly better than the 2007-2008 classes. Some of the more talented players from the last class were redshirted or have just gotten their toes wet. The talent/experience level is on the upswing. If we get solid play from QB it wouldn't surprise me to win 2 of the 5 against the favored teams. Oregon State went 3-9 in 2011(including a one point loss to FCS Sacramento State), and 9-4 in 2012. We'll be better along the lines and we'll have a bunch of guys who've had carries at RB(*shaking fist at AIRBGH*). Our QB play will likely determine if we can make a similar leap in play, but right now 7 wins seems about right.
 
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Montanahawk said:
I suspect injured starters returning convolutes those rankings. That said according to Steele's point system of experienced players and starters we came into last season at 100th, and 11th in the conference. Injuries and transitional issues(defensively, and offensively) aside that was a big hurdle to overcome. Yes, the schedule was weak but we lost by 3 points to ISU, a point to CMU(after a successful on-side kick recovery was taken back because of a CMU penalty), three point losses to Purdue and Indiana and a 6 point loss in what should of been a win to the bug eaters. IMO, Schreff was our most important offensive player other than QB(who way underperformed, and some of that probably wasn't his fault). His loss really hurt and coupled with the loss of Donnal in the same time frame probably cost us a close game or two. A double whammy for the "go to" side of a already badly struggling offense. The schedule is pretty fearsome this year, but I think this is a 7 win kind of season: Missouri State, WMU, ISU, Minny, NIU, Purdue and MSU(Bell was easy their MVP and their passing game is shaky...and big loses on defense). Hard to count on those games as wins but consider that we were in every game last year but PSU and UM. Right now I put OSU, UM, and UW as clear favorites against us, with Nebraska and Northwestern as small favorites. The talent level in the 2010-2012 recruiting classes were significantly better than the 2007-2008 classes. Some of the more talented players from the last class were redshirted or have just gotten their toes wet. The talent/experience level is on the upswing. If we get solid play from QB it wouldn't surprise me to win 2 of the 5 against the favored teams. Oregon State went 3-9 in 2011(including a one point loss to FCS Sacramento State), and 9-4 in 2012. We'll be better along the lines and we'll have a bunch of guys who've had carries at RB(*shaking fist at AIRBGH*). Our QB play will likely determine if we can make a similar leap in play, but right now 7 wins seems about right.
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I truly think the 2013 Iowa Hawkeyes have a chance to win anywhere from 2-9 games. Anywhere within that range wouldn't surprise me. QB play will be huge, but hopefully the line helps with that. The question will be, as it always is with Iowa, how many close games do they win?
 


Thanks for the good info Jon.

For those that were asking why I think ISU will be horrible next season, here's why.............

"t117-Iowa State (9): Five on offense (Three OL) and four on defense (one DL)"
 


JonDMiller said:
Iowa's football schedule in 2012 was one of the more favorable I can recall, which makes their 4-8 record and six-game losing streak all the more painful to swallow some two months after the season has ended.

There's always next year, right? What does the 2013 schedule look like? Phil Steele posted a blog today on returning starters for each of the FBS teams next year. This stat has taken a bit of a 'prestige hit' over the years as being a major indicator of a team's strength for an upcoming season, but I still like to look at it and believe if you return more starting experience you have a decent chance of being better than you were.

Here are the team's on Iowa's schedule, their returning starters and where that ranks out of 124 teams in the FBS. I have included Iowa's ranking in this mix and Missouri State is not listed as they are not an FBS team.

t17-Minnesota (16): 10 on offense and six on defense (return quarterback)
t24-Michigan State (15): Eight on offense (Four OL) and seven on defense (return QB, but will be a battle. Lost Bell, Gholston and Sims to early NFL declaration)
t24-Northwestern (15): Eight on offense and seven on defense (return quarterbacks)
t24-Wisconsin (15): Eight on offense (Three OL) and seven on defense (Three DL) (return quarterback)
t41-Iowa (14): Seven on offense and seven on defense
t58-Nebraska (13): Nine on offense (Four OL) and four on defense (just one DL) (return quarterback)
t58-Ohio State (13): Nine on offense (Four OL) and four on defense (zero OL) (return quarterback)
t58-Purdue (13): Five on offense (Three OL) and eight on defense (Three DL)
t88-Michigan (12): Six on offense (Two OL) and six on defense (two DL)
t88-Northern Illinois (12): Eight on offense (four OL) and four on defense (one DL) (return QB)
t112-Western Michigan (10): Two on offense (one OL) and eight on defense (one DL)
t117-Iowa State (9): Five on offense (Three OL) and four on defense (one DL)

Interesting to note: T1-Indiana (19): 10 on offense (Four OL) and nine on defense (return QB but will be a battle)

Seven of Iowa's 11 FBS opponents will return their starting quarterback and Michigan also returns a player with starting experience.
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Are there any teams on the old schedule that are carrying QB's with ZERO cummulative game reps?
 








Watching Iowa football for years, 1 thing stands out to me and that is stats like this don't matter. Unfortunately, it isn't meant to be taken in a good way.

Iowa seems to beat a team about once a year that they shouldn't. However, they seem to lose 2-3 to teams they shouldn't be it for less returning starters or talent levels or whatever reason.

Maybe it is just me, I BELIEVE Iowa is the better team, I guess maybe they weren't and maybe they won't be going forward.
 


dave3912 said:
Watching Iowa football for years, 1 thing stands out to me and that is stats like this don't matter. Unfortunately, it isn't meant to be taken in a good way.

Iowa seems to beat a team about once a year that they shouldn't. However, they seem to lose 2-3 to teams they shouldn't be it for less returning starters or talent levels or whatever reason.

Maybe it is just me, I BELIEVE Iowa is the better team, I guess maybe they weren't and maybe they won't be going forward.
Click to expand...

WTF, are you still in diapers, Mumbles?
 








MythOfFerentz said:
Thanks! Sure was better than, "Iowa good because I watch and know and my heads says so," wasn't it, Corky?
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I don't understand why Jon or any Mods allow people like you on this message board. You bring absolutely nothing to any conversation except personal attacks on others and hatred towards the very team you supposedly support.

You must live a horribly sad life, I feel really bad for the people around you everyday. That is if anyone is stupid enough to do that.
 


dave3912 said:
I don't understand why Jon or any Mods allow people like you on this message board. You bring absolutely nothing to any conversation except personal attacks on others and hatred towards the very team you supposedly support.

You must live a horribly sad life, I feel really bad for the people around you everyday. That is if anyone is stupid enough to do that.
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MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMYYYYYY....looks like the diaper reference was spot on.
 




Agree with Dave
dave3912 said:
I don't understand why Jon or any Mods allow people like you on this message board. You bring absolutely nothing to any conversation except personal attacks on others and hatred towards the very team you supposedly support.

You must live a horribly sad life, I feel really bad for the people around you everyday. That is if anyone is stupid enough to do that.
Click to expand...
 




dave3912 said:
Seriously? What is your deal, man?

You really can't be this big of a jerk.
Click to expand...

absolutely he is. not really sure if he's trying too hard to troll, or if he has huge anger problems. we need to get Ghost involved for an intervention.
 


anyway, back on track, it is nice to see we have a good amount of kids returning. but, it would make me feel much, much better if we had a QB with experience. oh well. we'll just have to see who emerges in the spring.
 


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