Bowl Projections for 11/24

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
This time of year, the biggest question is will the Big Ten be in the One Up or the Two Up scenario...meaning how many Big Ten teams will go to BCS bowls.


In order to get an invite to a BCS bowl, you must be ranked in the Top 14 of the final BCS poll.


Wisconsin was 19th in that poll last week, getting closer and closer to the Top 14. This week, #14 UCLA lost as did #12 Texas A&M. At worst, I think the Badgers will move up to 17th if not 16th. They are getting very close to being on the button and they play Penn State this coming weekend in Camp Randall. Beating then #25 Minnesota might push them ahead of Central Florida this week.


Michigan State could move up into the Top 10 as Oregon and Texas A&M lost. Baylor was beaten badly but will probably still be ranked ahead of MSU. Ohio State will have a firm grip on the third spot in the rankings after Baylor's loss.


If Michigan State beats Ohio State in the Big Ten title game (assuming MSU beats Minnesota next week and Ohio State beats Michigan) then there will be a Two Up scenario for sure. If Ohio State wins, the Spartans probably fall out of the Top 14 and the league would need Wisconsin to slide into the Top 14...which it would be aided in doing so due to Michigan State's having lost a game. So running through that scenario, if Wisconsin beats Minnesota next week, I think we're looking at the Badgers getting to at least 15th in the final BCS standings without much of an imagination required.


TWO UP SCENARIOS
BCS: Ohio State
BCS: MSU or Wisconsin
Cap One: MSU or Wisconsin
Outback: Nebraska or Iowa: I feel confident the Heroes Game winner will go to the Outback, in a Two Up.
Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska or Iowa: The loser of the Heroes goes to Tempe.
Gator: Minnesota. Michigan will end season losing four of five, and five of seven. That's why.
Texas: Michigan


ONE UP SCENARIOS:
BCS: Ohio State
Cap One: Wisconsin: Badgers haven't been there since 2007 & MSU not a good bowl draw, disappointed Orlando before. Badgers far better bowl bet.
Outback: Michigan State
Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska or Iowa: Heroes game winner. Iowa a part of two most attended BWW (formerly Insight) bowl games ever. Large local ex-patriot Iowa population.
Gator: Nebraska or Iowa: Heroes game loser
Texas: Minnesota
Dallas: Michigan


Some folks believe Minnesota will get picked ahead of Iowa. I respect their opinion, but until I see a bowl game pass on Iowa and their bowl traveling legacy and choose Minnesota and their lack of any such legacy, unless its forced by Jim Delany's hand, I will remain skeptical.
 
Orlando Sentinel writer has Iowa to Heart of Dallas

Bowl projections: The latest look at college football postseason - Orlando Sentinel

I just don't understand how some folks are asked to do bowl projections yet have very little understanding of the process. The Baylor to the Orange stuff, if Wisconsin makes its way into the Top 14, just isn't happening. Baylor is a very, very, very small and private university. They are not going to get the nod in the Orange over Wisconsin if the Badgers are there for the taking. Just like any of the B1G bowls aren't going to pass up Iowa for Minnesota unless somehow Delany can strong arm them, and I don't see that happening until next year's new rules.
 
If Ohio State gets into the BCS title game does the Rose Bowl take runner up MSU or bypass them for Wisconsin?
 
ssckelley said:
If Ohio State gets into the BCS title game does the Rose Bowl take runner up MSU or bypass them for Wisconsin?
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If MSU is still in the Top 14, and Wisconsin was in Top 14, I think they'd take MSU. But I don't think MSU will stay in Top 14 if they lose to OSU.
 
Seems believable.

MN is losing next weekend period. Iowa has got a shot on Friday, but win or lose they will get the bowl nod over a poorly supported Goph program.
 
JonDMiller said:
Orlando Sentinel writer has Iowa to Heart of Dallas

Bowl projections: The latest look at college football postseason - Orlando Sentinel

I just don't understand how some folks are asked to do bowl projections yet have very little understanding of the process. The Baylor to the Orange stuff, if Wisconsin makes its way into the Top 14, just isn't happening. Baylor is a very, very, very small and private university. They are not going to get the nod in the Orange over Wisconsin if the Badgers are there for the taking. Just like any of the B1G bowls aren't going to pass up Iowa for Minnesota unless somehow Delany can strong arm them, and I don't see that happening until next year's new rules.
Click to expand...

Is this last weeks submission. Iowa to Dallas. Seriously. Come on
 
JonDMiller said:
I just don't understand how some folks are asked to do bowl projections yet have very little understanding of the process.
Click to expand...

You know how it is. Newspapers have inches to fill, and his editor tells him to generate bowl projections every week.

Basically anything attempting to project the entire slate of bowl games is worthless. Even someone knowledgeable like Jerry Palm misses the wrinkles about specific conference slotting. Going with Jon's picks, or the ESPN bloggers, or any B1G-oriented beat writer is gonna be closer to the truth than a national writer.
 
Hey, whadda ya know? There's Wisconsin at 15 in the new BCS standings...and ESPN just released their bowl projections, using a two-up, exact same as mine ;)
 
I still have this feeling that even if Iowa beats Nebraska, that the Outback Bowl would still select Nebraska.
Even though attendance, when Iowa has been selected, has been better than Outback attendance average, Nebraska has never played in the Outback Bowl. Outback, also, has been unpredictable, at times, when selecting Big Ten teams.

If OSU, MSU, Wisconsin and Nebraska are off the board for the Buffalo Wild Wings selection, I see us playing in Phoenix again. While Michigan would bring more eyeballs on the television, Iowa would sell more tickets.

I'd love to play in Jacksonville, as it would be January 1st versus SEC, in a place we haven't played since the 1983 season, but I think it's either Tampa or Phoenix, when a heavy lean towards Phoenix playing Oklahoma, again.
In the Big 12: Okie State - Fiesta, Baylor - Cotton.
I think the Alamo would take a 8-4 Texas team over a 9-3 Oklahoma team.
The BWW would select next with Oklahoma being the only legitimate option.
 
From everything I am reading Saturday's win over Michigan basically took Texas off of the table. Here's hoping for Gator or Outback since my parents snowbird to Orlando every year.
 
JonDMiller said:
Hey, whadda ya know? There's Wisconsin at 15 in the new BCS standings...and ESPN just released their bowl projections, using a two-up, exact same as mine ;)
Click to expand...

You are amazing! Predictions like this almost makes us forget about 2010.......almost. ;)
 
Bottom line - what needs to happen/not happen to get to Jacksonville/Gator Bowl? (personal preference based on geography)
 
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