Big 10 Tourney Thoughts and NCAA Seeding Predictions

[twade70]

Cranked this sucker out late into the night and cleaned it up during lunch today. Let me know what you think.

139-138. Painfully close. But to be honest, PSU earned that victory. Our 2 guys who wrestled below expectations (Marion and Gambrall) didn’t get it done on Sunday in the wrestlebacks. PSU got bonus points from both guys wrestling for 7th place and then from Wade wrestling for 5th. Overall, PSU scored 15.5 points from bonus (2 pins, 5 TFs, 5 MDs) while Iowa only scored 10 (3 Pins, 4 MDs), 12 if you count the Med FF Ramos received. The only guy getting bonus for Iowa yesterday was Gambrall (of all people) getting the MD in the 5th place match. PSU also had an 8th seed winning a championship. Iowa had 2 champs, PSU had 5, yet Iowa still almost pulled it out. Only 2 guys (Gambrall and Marion) didn’t wrestle to their seed. Everyone else wrestled to their seed or above. I’m feeling much better than I thought I would this morning.

Iowa wrestled pretty well over all for the tourney. 138 points. Just to give you an idea of how good that is historically, here are the points of the tournament champions from 2001-2010:

2001 – Minnesota 154
2002 – Minnesota 174
2003 – Minnesota 126.5
2004 – Iowa 129.5
2005 – Illinois 130
2006 – Minnesota 138
2007 – Minnesota 156
2008 – Iowa 127
2009 – Iowa 141
2010 – Iowa 156.6

138 points, good enough for 1st in 5 of the last 10 years. I think this team as a whole is at a pretty good place. We knew it was going to be tight this weekend. PSU just wrestled a better tournament. While Iowa was exposed a bit, especially from the bottom position (I’m looking at you Ethen, Montell and Gambrall), they’re in a good place heading into NCAAs (with 9 qualifiers no less).

125
Awesome, awesome job by McD this weekend. Notches 2 pins to get to the finals and then FINALLY gets a TD on Precin. What a great scramble there by McD. From the time Precin got in on the shot, to McD getting the 2 points, an entire minute went by. So impressed by him and his ability to get the TD. However, McD has still not been able to take Precin down off his own shot. In the last match (where McD won by pin), Precin got the first TD off a deep high crotch shot, so deep McD had really didn’t have much of a chance to scramble out. Then yesterday, Precin again is the first guy to get off a good shot – this time though, he just had the ankle and McD was able to scramble for the TD. He’s just so good there.

If I was Precin in a potential rematch, I stall through 3 periods and SV and try to get to the tiebreakers. He’s a much better rider (to ride, not to look for a pin/back points) than McD (though to his credit, McD did get out from under Precin in 10 seconds to start the 3rd). There’s going to be a lot of debate as to whether he gets the #1 seed over Robles. Personally, I think it goes:

1. McD (IA)
2. Robles (ASU)
3. Precin (NW)
4. Nicholson (ODU)

He’s the returning champ and he’s won twice against Precin to avenge his one loss. If Robles gets the 1 seed, they should have it as follows:

1. Robles
2. McD
3. Nicholson
4. Precin

As long as McD is on the opposite side of Precin and Robles, I’ll be happy. There’s no way McD should have to face Precin for a FOURTH time this year to go the finals.

133
After losing to Graff, it was good to see Tony come back to dominate Futrell in the 3rd place match. Very nice win for Tony and should really be helpful for him seeding-wise. I’d really like to see Tony matchup with Graff again at NCAAs. He needs to be much more aggressive from his feet to beat Graff. Graff had way more shot attempts than Tony on Saturday night – that shouldn’t happen. SO close to winning in the TB. Just needed to get the escape and he’s in the final.

Going into the weekend, the seeding at this weight looked something like this:

1. Oliver (Okie St)
2. Hochstrasser (BSU)
3. Long (PSU)
4. Graff (WI)
5. Rugirello (Hof)
6. Grey (Cornell)
7. Ramos (IA)
8. Futrell (IL)

Not much is going to change after the conference tournaments. Oliver, Hochstrasser, Long, Rugirello, and Grey all won their conference tournaments. Graff lost to Long and Ramos lost to Graff. While there’s a chance Ramos jumps Grey (Ramos’s win over Long is 10 times better than anything Grey’s done in an injury-shortened season). I think the seeding goes like this:

1. Oliver
2. Hochstrasser
3. Long
4. Rugirello
5. Graff
6. Grey
7. Ramos
8. Carter

141
Montell is a guy that has all the talent in the world, but is prone to making bad decisions when trying to close out a match. After a 5 point move in the 3rd period on Saturday night, he’s leading Thorn 5-1, but needs to knock off 15 sec of Thorn’s RT advantage before giving up the escape. Instead, he makes no attempt to ride after Thorn’s injury TO, and Thorn gets the escape and then gets the TD with 2 sec left to tie the match up. So close to a finals berth and instead he’s wrestling for 3rd. Nice win on Sunday morning vs. Alton, but Kennedy really took it to him. From the radio broadcast, it sounds like Kennedy scored each of his TDs off Montell mistakes. Reaching for the leg instead putting together some solid offense. I actually like Montell’s chances vs. Russell than a rematch against Kennedy – I think Kennedy’s just a bad matchup for Marion. Too strong for him.

Seeding at this weight is going to be interesting. You’ve got a guy with a 27-1 record in Novachkov who’s only loss is a 3-2 decision to Russell. However, that’s the only top 5 guy he’s wrestled. Going into the weekend, the rankings looked something like this:

1. Russell (MI)
2. Marion (IA)
3. Thorn (MN)
4. Novachkov (Cal Poly)
5. Kennedy (IL)
6. Alton (PSU)
7. Bailey (OU)
8. Nauman (Pitt)

Thorn beat Marion, Russell beat Thorn and Kennedy, Kennedy beat Marion, and Marion beat Alton. Outside of Big 10s, Bailey lost in the Big 12 final to Schavrien (Mizzou) and Nauman won the EWL championship (against a bunch of scrubs). The wildcard is Novachkov. His best win is over Nauman, but the seeding committee gives a lot of weight to sterling records. Regardless, I think Montell’s locked into the 4/5 seed and a rematch with Kennedy.

1. Russell
2. Thorn
3. Novachkov
4. Kennedy
5. Marion

149
It sounds like Ballweg had a real shot at taking down Grajales, but couldn’t get it done. As I’ve said before, Grajales has serious pedigree and looks like he’s putting it all together at the right time. Just needs to have more of a sense of urgency during his matches. He seemed to have no interest in trying to TD Molinaro until the last minute of the match. That’s not going to cut it. Would have been nice to get a few points out of Ballweg this weekend, but a matchup with the 6 seed (and Big 10 finalist) and the 5th seed (Schmitt) gave him a real uphill battle. Hopefully this weight gets cleaned up in 2011-2012 for the Hawks.

157
DSJ really had a good weekend. Racking up a Fall and a MD in the first 2 rounds was big. DSJ and McD were the only Hawkeyes to get 2 bonus point victories in their matches. I didn’t expect DSJ to knock off Welch again, so that was a surprising result. He also seems to have made some serious strides since his last match vs. Taylor. Not sure if DSJ is ever going to beat the guy, but he’s shown he’ll be a definite AA contender in Philly.

Seeding going into conference tourneys:
1. Fittery (American)
2. Hall (BSU)
3. Taylor (PSU)
4. Jenkins (ASU)
5. Dong (VaTech)
6. Peppelman (Harvard)
7. DSJ (IA)
8. Saddoris (Navy)

In conference tourney action: Fittery beat Saddoris, Peppelman lost to both Saddoris and Meagher (Cornell), Hall beat Jenkins, Taylor beat DSJ and Dong won his conference championship. Fittery and Hall will continue to get the nod ahead of Taylor. After losing twice in his conference tourney, Peppelman should get jumped by DSJ. Seeding goes like this:

1. Fittery
2. Hall
3. Taylor
4. Jenkins
5. Dong
6. DSJ

165
Janssen was one of 3 Hawkeyes (Ethen and Blake were the others) this weekend to wrestle above their seed. Janssen gave Howe all he could handle, getting in on Howe’s leg a number of times, but just not able to finish it. In the 3rd place match, he wrestled a much smarter match this time against Yohn, choosing neutral when it was his choice. Yohn is WAY too good on top. Then 2 TDs in the 3rd period to close it out and get the win.

Going into conference tourneys, seeding probably looked like this:

1. Burroughs (NE)
2. Howe (WI)
3. Caldwell (OU)
4. Asper (MD)
5. Kerber (Cornell)
6. Sponseller (OSU)
7. Sorenson (ISU)
8. Winston (Rutgers)
9. Toal (Mizzou)
10. Bailey (Okie St)
11. Onufer (Wyoming)
12. Yohn (MN)

In conference tourneys, Burroughs beat Caldwell, Howe beat Sponseller, Asper won his conference, Kerber lost to Winston and #25 Burak (Penn), Sorenson didn’t wrestle Big 12s, Toal lost to Caldwell and Bailey, Onufer won his conference. Lot’s of movement after the top 4. I’m guessing it will end up:

1. Burroughs (NE)
2. Howe (WI)
3. Caldwell (OU)
4. Asper (MD)
5. Winston (RUT)
6. Sponseller (OSU)
7. Bailey (Okie St)
8. Toal (Mizzou)
9. Kerber (Cornell)
10. Onufer (Wyo)
11. Janssen (IA)

174
Ethen was the guy who totally surpassed my expectations this weekend. I had him down for anywhere from 5th to 7th. Especially with the way he’d been wrestling late in the year. Great job by him avenging 2 late season losses: Manuel (2 wins) and Glasser. He really controlled all 3 of those matches. And in the semis, he was absolutely competitive with Ruth, scoring the only TD in the match and being in on another TD as time expired. If only he could have gotten out from bottom in the 2nd. Great job coming back to get 3rd.

Going into conference tourneys, seeding was a train wreck. My best guess would have probably looked like this:

1. Reader (ISU)
2. Ruth (PSU)
3. Lewnes (Cornell)
4. Heinrich (VA)
5. Covington (Oregon St)
6. Amuchastegui (Stan)
7. Bennett (CMU)
8. Manuel (PU)
9. Meys (Lehigh)
10. Heflin (Ohio St)
11. Glasser (MN)
12. E. Lofthouse (IA)

Reader won Big 12s, Ruth won Big 10s, Lewnes won EIWA, Heinrich lost to Letts (Maryland – the same guy who gave Ruth his only loss, though Ethen has a win over him), Covington beat Amuchastegui, Bennett won MACs, Meys was upset twice (once by Med FF). This is a complete shot in the dark, but I’m guessing seeding goes:

1. Reader
2. Ruth
3. Lewnes
4. Covington
5. Heinrich
6. Bennett
7. Letts
8. Amuchastegui
9. Heflin
10. Lofthouse

184
Ugh. A pretty rough weekend for Grant. After barely getting by Kissel, he gets dominated by Steinhaus (rode him like crazy in the dual too). I expected him to be a bit more competitive against #1 seed Rutt, but a defeat wasn't a surprise (but not by pin!). Did a good job in the 5th place match, leading 6-0 after the first. Nice to see Gambrall get the TD in the last 30 seconds to lock up the MD.

Going into conference tourneys, Gambrall was in the top 12 in the country. Now (especially with Wright winning Big 10s – he’ll get a decent seed at NCAAs) I expect Grant to be US (or at best, the 12th seed). Going to be a tough road for him to reach AA (or even Round of 12).

197
Uncle Luke is officially on fire. He put up a lot of points in his matches and is really looking good on offense. He still has trouble with the really strong guys at this weight – I’m looking at you, Brandvold – but IMO, he’s one of the most likely Hawkeyes to AA. He’s wrestling with a lot of confidence right now. In the final, it was clear that he was in that match the whole time. And Brandvold’s the #2 guy in the country.

Going into conference tourneys, IMO, seeding looked like this:

1. Simaz (Cornell) (1 loss, to #4 Kilgore)
2. Brandvold (WI) (Undefeated, but only 14 matches, only win vs. top 6 guy is against Lofthouse))
3. Foster (Okie St) (Undefeated, but only win vs. top 6 guy is against Lofthouse)
4. Kilgore (Kent St) (2 losses, 1 to #9 Burak, 1 to future Hawkeye Cayle Byers)
5. Thomusseit (Pitt) (2 losses, 1 to Kilgore, 1 to #9 Burak)
6. Lofthouse (IA)

Simaz won EIWAs over Burak, Brandvold won Big 10s over Lofthouse, Foster won Big 12s, Kilgore won MACs, Thomusseit won EWLs. I think the NCAA seeding looks pretty much the same. Seeds 1-4 should be pretty well set, just a matter of ordering. I really like Lofthouse in a potential rematch with Foster. I think that was the match, that really made Luke believe he could be an AA this year. Luke was able to get in on some really nice shots, but wasn’t able to convert any of them. I think we can all agree that Luke has really improved on his offense since then. He’s getting to guys’ legs and converting them into TDs. Foster was able to get in on Luke’s legs quite a few times – Luke has cleaned up his defense since then.

HWT
Here’s another guy who’s really turned it on of late. He’s had plenty of detractors during the year (I was certainly one of them), but he’s really coming into his own at the right time. Really good win over Nelson in the Final. Especially impressed to see Blake not allow Nelson to ride him at all. Blake’s pretty limited offensively – he goes to the snatch single more often than not, but he’s got a pretty good batting average of converting them. Rasing, the Big 10 Champ. Who would’ve thunk it?

Nationally, the projected seeds going into conference tourneys:

1. Rey (Leh) (W over Trice, Wade, Tomei, Flores, Russo)
2. Trice (CMU) (W over Tomei, Russo; L to Rey, Apland)
3. Flores (Amer)(Ws over Russo, Tomei, Bradley, L to Rey, Fernandez, Simonson, Tomei)
4. Russo (Rutgers)
5. Bradley (Mizzou) (25-3, Ls to Flores, Russo, Rey)
6. Wade (PSU)
7. Tomei (Pitt) (28-4, Ls to Rey, Trice, Flores, Wade)
8. Alcala (IN)
9. Rasing (IA)
10. Nelson (MN)

In conference tourneys: Rey got knocked off by Flores, Trice won MACs, Russo lost to Flores, Bradley won Big 12s, Wade lost to Nelson and Bugenhagen, Tomei won EWLs, Alcala lost to Rizqallah and Bugenhagen. After both Wade’s and Alcala’s poor performances at Big 10s, Rasing should jump both of them. With Rey getting upset, not sure what happens at the top. Here’s my best guess:

1. Rey
2. Flores
3. Trice
4. Russo
5. Bradley
6. Tomei
7. Rasing
8. Nelson

So in total, I’ve got: McD - #1, Ramos - #6/7, Marion - #5, DSJ - #6, Janssen - #11, E. Lofthouse - #10, Gambrall - #12/Unseeded, L. Lofthouse - #6, Rasing - #7

 

[AFHawk86]

Great run down twade. A couple thoughts: I think Robles gets the #1 seed with McD #2 and Precin #4. I'm still hoping Ballweg gets an at-large bid since he's arguably the 9th best 149lber in the B10 with 8 getting auto-qualifier spots (he was ranked #32 in the final coaches poll). I saw a post that said he might be the odd man out when wild cards are announced. Also, I'm cutting Gambrall a little slack despite getting 5th because he lost to #1 and #2 and came back for bonus in the 5th place match. That was huge because it put the Hawks in good position to win/tie until Wade majored Ben "fall on my face" Apland for 5th. I wish the same Rutt who pinned Gambrall would have wrestled Wright earlier in the tourney

 

[TarpHawk]

Thanks, twade, for posting so much info that we don't have to find ourselves. Getting seeds for 165, 174, and 184 could make a big difference in getting points on the board early in the tourney.

 

[pin2win]

pretty impressive right up i was going to do something similar to this but once i saw it today i really don't think theres more i can add lol...great job

 

[fulsaasfan]

Great thoughts Twade! I think that your really close on these but I still think that Janssen could sneak a little bit higher. I'm also of the thinking that 125 will look more like

1. Robles
2. McDonough
3. Nicholson
4. Precin
5. Sanders

Either way we should have 6 guys seeded in top 8. I think that 6 AA's and 2 finalists wins this thing...

 

[CRlightweight]

Twade, could you do my taxes for me next year??? you are thorough! thanks

 

[twade70]

Thanks guys.

AFHawk - Agree on Rutt vs. Wright. From what Ironside/Grace said, Rutt got banged up during the Wright match and it really affected his mobility in the 3rd period. Between the Rutt match and the Steinhaus match, the wrestling gods really smiled on Wright last weekend! Also good point on Gambrall. It's tough to know exactly where he's at right now considering this weekend's opponents. Hopefully he gets in the right mindset in these next 2 weeks. The MD was huge.

FulsaasFan - You may be right with Janssen, but I could only see him jumping one spot ahead of Onufer at best. He's got losses to Sponseller, Toal and Bailey. It’s tough to know where the seeding committee will put the guys with less-than-stellar competition. Also, I probably moved Kerber down too far. You could make an argument that he should slot in at 6 ahead of Sponseller. The resumes of the 7-11 guys on my list:

Bailey: 23-7 (W over Janssen (twice), Onufer; 1-2 vs. Yohn, 1-2 vs. Toal))
Toal: 20-12 (W over Janssen (twice), Bailey (twice); L to Kerber)
Kerber: 30-4 (W over Yohn, Sponseller, Toal; L to Howe, Winston, Burak (INJ DEF))
Onufer: 29-2 (W over #15 Hatchett, #16 DesRoches, #19 Blevins; L to Caldwell, Bailey)

After looking a little closer at the resumes, I think it’ll go like this:

1. Burroughs
2. Howe
3. Caldwell
4. Asper
5. Winston
6. Kerber
7. Sponseller
8. Bailey
9. Toal
10. Onufer
11. Janssen

Better to be on the side opposite Burroughs, though Caldwell is really tough. Potential matchup with his former high school teammate, Kerber in the 2nd round? That would be pretty cool.

 

[twade70]

Twade, could you do my taxes for me next year??? you are thorough! thanks

Funny you should ask...I am a CPA. (Though I specialize in corporate tax rather than individual).

 

[AFHawk86]

I'm finally getting the chance to watch the B10 finals that I taped on DVR. I'm through the first 2 weights and here are my thoughts...

125 - McD showed us something new in his already impressive arsenal. His defense was awesome. Usually he's so dominant offensively that we don't get a chance to see his defense. I think he's the only Hawk during the tournament to outscramble his opponent when Precin clearly had the advantage with the TD attempt in the 3rd period. Precin was beat and spent at that point and just laid on the mat for the final 41 seconds.

133 - Graff had 2 great TD attempts in the first and easily took down Long...then Graff shut down his offense for the rest of the match. This was interesting because Graff was unable to get a TD on Ramos until OT. Then he rode tough in the second and riding is definitely not his strength. It didn't look so much like he was gassed, he was just intent on stalling out the match in the third after getting an escape to take the lead. Finally, there was no need to flee the mat with 4 seconds remaining. All he had to do was stay put with his left leg out of reach. There wasn't enough time on the clock for Long to pull him back on...WOW! It was Graff's match to lose. Had he stayed on offense OR sat off the edge of the mat he would have beaten Long.

Edit...almost forgot, post semis interview with Graff. Q: "What are your thoughts going into the final match?" A: "I'm just gonna wrestle however long it takes, all 7 minutes, or longer/shorter, whatever it is, just wrestle."

More on this installment as I watch the remaining matches (I can only retain so much information at a time).

 

[AFHawk86]

141: Russell is much more impressive than I originally thought. He's going to finish this season undefeated as the NC. He "out-Thorned" Thorn to win the scramble for the first TD after Thorn had a great TD attempt. Russell was much more offensive minded than I thought he'd be with several good shot attempts. Also, Thorn ended up on his back just like his match against Marion in the semi's. Thorn was overly aggressive in both those matches and lost body control. The difference here is Russell knows how to stall and he stayed in control of the match. Did anyone else notice how Russell flattened out on the mat in the bottom position after Thorn got the reversal in the 3rd? That's how you win a match against an aggressive wrestler.

I forgot to mention...Russell has incredible balance!

 

[AFHawk86]

149: Grajales is slick and wrestles well for being undersized at 149. He always looks gassed, but several people I talked to said that's the way he wrestles. He's good at conserving his energy to utilize at just the right time. Unfortunately for Grajales, Russell has another year at 141 before Grajales can wrestle 141. Molinaro is good, but he doesn't have a shot at NC as some have stated. I don't think he's improved any since last season. This is a tough overall weight class in the B10 this year with 8 auto qualifiers, but the top quality is definitely down from last year. Metcalf and that other guy from tOSU wouldn't have had a problem with this field.

 

[twade70]

Unfortunately, I think you may be right on Russell. He won Big 10s in both his freshman and sophomore years at NCAAs, but faded at the big dance (Freshman year: #3 seed, finished in R of 12; Sophomore year: #1 seed, finished 7th). I think taking the redshirt last year gave him a chance to start over and look at what went right/wrong his first 2 seasons. While he's not blowing out all opponenets, he's finding a way to win every time. I Montell's on the same plane as him talent-wise; it remains to be seen if he can get to the same level mentally.

Grajales is a big move guy; his strategy seemed to be just keeping it close and then looking for the big move to win it. To Molinaro's credit, he stayed with solid defense and wrestled a good match. I agree, Molinaro isn't going to be finalist, but should be AA once again (8th as a freshman, 5th as a sophomore). Really interesting weight nationally. Caldwell and Dake appeared to be on a collision course going into the season. Then Dake lost this weekend to LeValley. Caldwell and Dake should still be on opposite sides of the bracket (I think it goes 1-Caldwell, 2-LeValley, 3-Dake). After being either Public Enemy #1 or #2 for Hawkeye Fans (Palmer has to be up there as well), it'd be pretty funny to see us have to cheer on Caldwell in a potential Caldwell-Dake finals matchup for the team race. But let's not get ahead of ourselves...

 

[AFHawk86]

157: I take back my earlier statement that McD was the only Hawk to scramble for the TD...DSJ also had a nice scramble for the first TD. DSJ didn't move his feet quickly enough and it cost him a TD as well as an escape that he should've had with about 25 seconds remaining in the 1st period. Taylor must have super reach the way he's able to get to his opponents' legs without much effort. DSJ almost outscrambled Taylor for a TD in the 2nd but they went out of bounds. I don't think the ref would have awarded it even if they didn't go out because I didn't see that situation rewarded as a TD all tourney (top wrestler has control behind both his opponent's arms with his inside leg reversed around his opponent's inside leg). Dang, then DSJ got outscrambled in the 2nd after a great counter shot. The camera zoomed in on DSJ while he was being ridden hard and he definitely looked frustrated/tired. DSJ pushed the action in the 3rd, but I think he lost the match in the 2nd when he got outscrambled. I like the effort but I think he lost some of his confidence being down 5-3 going into the 3rd.

 

[CRwrestling]

141: Russell is much more impressive than I originally thought. He's going to finish this season undefeated as the NC.

That's exactly what i thought as I watched his finals match. I never gave him the respect that he deserved. I think it may be b/c he often wrestles a conservative match and is willing to win late. This tournament though he stayed on the offense and really showed how good he is.

 

[AFHawk86]

165: Not much to say here. Sponseller is much better at 165 than he was at 157 and he should AA this year (finally). Howe is impressive. He came back from a very serious hamstring injury to gut out another B10 championship. I'm picking Howe to repeat as NC despite him not being 100% and losing to Burroughs at Midlands.

 

[AFHawk86]

174: Ruth is long and talented and he gets in on guys very easily. That said, he acts like he doesn't know what to do in stalemate/scramble situations. He goes for big moves and loses them instead of getting the TD (trying for the near side cradle in the first and not getting the TD). He had a tough time finishing after great initial moves all first period. Heflin was definitely playing defense but the match was basically over after the reversal/cradle at the beginning of the 2nd period to go up 5-0. Neither wrestler stopped being aggressive until the final whistle. It almost cost Ruth as a few more seconds on the clock might have resulted in back points for Heflin there at the end. Ruth could be a high AA or nothing. I don't think Heflin AA's this year.

Interesting that Janssen and Lofthouse arguably wrestled Howe/Ruth tougher than the 2nd place wrestlers did. That's a great sign for NCAA's. Unfortunately they didn't earn the #2 or #3 seed during the regular season to give them a shot at the finals.

 

[AFHawk86]

184: Wright, like a couple of other PSU wrestlers, relies too much on big moves instead of the basics. He's obviously very good, but I think he'd be much better if he'd focus on perfecting the basics. Wright scores the 2nd period TD after stepping on Steinhaus's foot causing him to fall to his butt (sometimes it's better to be lucky than good). The commentators didn't think it was a TD, but Steinhaus took advantage of Wright getting high to get the reversal. Steinhaus almost had back points here which would have been the difference. The biggest difference between this match and the previous one where Steinhaus majored Wright 10-1 was that Steinhaus didn't ride tough. He's a strong rider but he allowed Wright to get away too easily (2 escapes). He got the stall call on Wright but he wasn't able to get the winning TD in the final period. It's tough to say how either of these guys will do at NCAA's.

I'll take a moment to vent here...I would have given Steinhaus the TD at the buzzer. He was the aggressor and it looked to me that he had control when the buzzer sounded. I've stated this before, but Iowa didn't get the benefit of a single close/questionable call the entire tournament. Note the TD against Lofthouse at the end of the 197lb match.

 

[AFHawk86]

197: Luke didn't look quite right this weekend. He wasn't taking shots like usual in his first two matches and in the interview I noticed his eyes were really bloodshot. He seemed to be unusually tired in the finals match, even in the 1st period. That said, he was aggressive and still had a chance to win, especially if you take away the first period TD at the buzzer (see previous post). I've watched the replay over and over and don't think Brandvold established control before the buzzer. I might feel differently if Steinhaus had been awarded the winning TD in the 184 match, but there was a different standard applied between those 2 matches. Luke took the initial shot and then momentarily let his guard down as Brandvold took a great countershot to take the early 2-0 lead. Brandvold's second TD in period 2 was also on a countershot. Hopefully Luke remembers that lesson if they meet again at NCAA's. Luke lost close matches to the #2, #3, and #5 wrestlers and hopefully he figures out a way to turn the corner against the best competition. I think Brandvold has a shot to be in the finals and Luke will be an AA.

On a side note, I was surprised that Luke lost his cool in the 3rd period. I like his aggressiveness and passion, but I would've awarded Brandvold a penalty point when Luke shoved him into the stands. I didn't see anything that would have triggered that reaction and they were well out of bounds when Luke shoved him. That seemed out of character for Luke...that's something I would've expected in the previous match against Brown.

 

[AFHawk86]

Hwt: First of all, from a fan's perspective, you can't ask for anything more than the championship coming down to the final match...but from a Hawk perspective I wish it would've been over long before that Back to Hwt, Blake finished the season 12-2 following the Midlands collapse. His only losses were both by 1 point to Wade and Alcala. This was another typical Hwt match and Rasing came up with the TD when he needed it. As has been previously stated, it looked like he could've gotten the pin had he put in the half. My question is, why doesn't Rasing take that shot in the first period? He's gotten much better on his TDs because he's not stopping his momentum and ending up on his knees. It's tough to gauge the heavies because they're so evenly matched. I like the way Nelson wrestles and think he has an outside chance at AA. If Blake keeps this streak going he could end up in the finals.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, Apland completely fell apart in the Wade match and literally fell down on his face to allow Wade to come around for the TD that gave him enough points for the major.

 

[twade70]

165 - Interesting you pick Howe over Burroughs at NCAAs. I'm not sure how much of it was rust or how much of it was continued recovery from the injury, but Howe didn't look like himself this weekend. The usual explosion wasn't there from him. Considering all that, the fact he won Big 10s is a testament to how good this guy is. I don't see him being able to get by Burroughs at less than (or even at) 100%.

174 - Ruth has a super-high ceiling. No where to go but up. Will be interesting to see if 1) He's willing to do the work to maximize his talents and 2) if Cael can get him there.

184 - Wright's another guy who's uber-talented but is unable to recognize when to stay basic vs. being high risk. During the season he definitely gave up more back points than any of the other Big 10 champs (and probably all the runner-ups as well). Puts himself in terrible positions and has paid for it in the past. If he stays under control at NCAAs, he could make a serious run. This weight is wide open nationally.

197 - Totally agree on the shove by Luke. Brandvold should have been awarded a penalty point.