Big 10 Seeding Predictions (as of 2/11/11)

T

twade70

Well-Known Member
125 McD #1 - though I think Precin beats him in the Big 10 final

133 Ramos #2 - Futrell gets beat by Long, ends up with a 6-2 conference record vs. Tony's 8-0. Tony gets the nod despite Futrell's head-to-head win.

141 Marion #4 - Beats Russell, but loses to Thorn. Thorn also beats Alton, but loses to Russell. Kennedy beats Alton. Russell gets the benefit of the doubt (only overall loss on the year to Marion, 2-time Big 10 champ, 3 wins over Alton, 1 over Thorn, 1 over Kennedy) and gets the 1 seed. Not sure if Marion ends up #3 or #4...again, I think past performance gives Kennedy the nod. I think 141 ends up like this: 1. Russell (7-1), 2. Thorn (7-1), 3. Kennedy (4-0), 4. Marion (4-1), 5. Alton (3-3).

149 Ballweg #8 - Best seed he can hope for. Needs to beat Patacsil (PU) and Zilverberg (MN). Will have his hands full against Grajales (who's an undersized 149-pounder himself. Was trying to make 133 before the season but couldn't make the cut. He's definitely coming around though, with a 4-2 Big 10 record). Mark willl be fighting it out with Zilverberg (should be 2-4 when he faces Mark, only 2 wins are against WI's backup and Fee (OSU) who's terrible). May come down to who wins in the IA-MN dual.

157 St. John #2 - Hopefully he can close the gap on Taylor from their first matchup.

165 Janssen #3 - What a terrible loss by Yohn against Mosier (PU). I think Howe is back for Big 10s and gets the #2 seed based on reputation (as he never got a chance to wrestle in a dual, but did have a win over Yohn this season). Janssen should be 5-1 (with Yohn 5-2) going into the MN dual. Will need to beat Yohn to get the 3 seed.

174 Lofthouse #3 - Blanton is still fighting back issues. He's 0-1 in Big 10 duals (losing to Manuel). Even if he's back against PSU, he's losing to Ruth. This weight is a real cluster. Ethen really is in the driver's seat and if he performs, could end up with the 2-seed. I'm going to say Ethen ends up 4-3 (going 1-1 against Manuel and Glasser). He really needs to make sure he beats Glasser to stay on the opposite side of the bracket from Ruth, who will obviously be the #1. I think it's going to end up: 1. Ruth, 2. Manuel, 3. Lofthouse, 4. Glasser, 5. Blanton.

184 Gambrall #2 - Another cluster weight. Wright still has a shot at the #1 seed. His matchup vs. Rutt is going to mean a lot for seeding purposes. Rutt is going to end up 8-0 or 7-1 depending on his outcome vs. Wright. Gambrall is the guy I'm most worried about. I think anything can happen with him before Big 10s. He could be 8-0 (and potentially get the #1 seed) or 6-2 (losing to both Kissel and Steinhaus). For now, I think he goes 1-1 in the PU/MN duals. For now, I think seeding will be 1. Rutt, 2. Gambrall, 3. Wright.

197 Lofthouse #3 - I can't say enough about that win over Powless. Luke goes 2-1 going into Big 10s (loses to Yohn who has his number). Seeding ends up 1. Brandvold, 2. Yohn, 3. Lofthouse.

HWT Rasing #6 or #7 - There's still a lot of potential movement at this weight. Call it a homer pick, but I think Rasing upsets either Apland or Nelson, finishing 4-4 in Big 10 duals. For now, seeding ends up 1. Wade, 2. Rizqallah (who ROLLED Wade 8-2 last weekend), 3. Alcala, 4. Apland, 5. Nelson, 6. Rasing, 7. Bugenhagen.
 
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141?
Maybe I miss read your intent. If Russell is #1 and Marion is #3 and loses to # 2 Thorn, he won't get the chance to beat Russell.
Or were you refering to beating Russell at the dual.
That I think can happen!!!
Thanks for posting your predictions.
It gives us junkies something to hack over.
 


FromRow10 said:
141?
Maybe I miss read your intent. If Russell is #1 and Marion is #3 and loses to # 2 Thorn, he won't get the chance to beat Russell.
Or were you refering to beating Russell at the dual.
That I think can happen!!!
Thanks for posting your predictions.
It gives us junkies something to hack over.
Click to expand...

I was referring to Marion beating Russell in the dual.

I plan on updating everything after this weekend's duals. I've got a mammoth excel file going.
 


Couple of interesting results from last night:

133
As predicted, Long (PSU) beats Futrell (IL)

141 went as predicted:
Russell (MI) dec Thorn (MN)
Kennedy (IL) dec Alton (PSU)

149
Nadhir (NU) dec. Schmitt (WI)
Zilverberg (MN) dec Grajales (MI) - could push Mark down to being unseeded


174
Manuel (PU) dec Lofthouse (IA)
Zeerip (MI) dec Glasser (MN)

184
Dallago (IL) dec Wright (PSU) - Worst seed Gambrall can get is the 3 seed. Will be #2 if he beats Steinhaus

HWT
Nelson (MN) dec Apland (MI)
Alcala (IN) dec Rizqallah (MSU)
 


Obviously we're a better dual team than PSU. In a traditional tournament format, we'll have a better chance of beating them at NCAA's than bigtens imo. Mostly b/c Ruth and Taylor are the two #1 seeds with the most distance between the rest of the big ten field. Those two weights seem locked up barring injury. All the other weights have at least two possible champs.
 


Someone put something on the other website that made me think to look at some things at this weight. Even if he wins out, Ethen could still be seeded as low as 8. This weight is crazy. I dug a little deeper on each guy's record (including matchups outside the conference dual season). I think the top guys at 174 end up with the following records. (NOTE: OOC = out of conference matchup)

1. Ruth (8-0)
1-0 (W over Zeerip) OOC

2. Heflin (5-2) - losses to Lofthouse and Glasser
3-1 (W over Zeerip and 2 W over Manuel, L to Blanton) OOC

3. Manuel (7-1) - only loss is to Glasser
1-2 (W over Jordan, 2 L's to Heflin) OOC

4. Blanton (0-1) - only loss is to Manuel
1-0 (W over Heflin) OOC

5. Lofthouse (4-3) - losses to Jacobs, Ruth, Manuel
No OOC

6. Jordan (3-4) - losses to Zeerip, Manuel, Ruth, and Heflin
Also, Jordan went 1-1 (W over Zeerip, L to Manuel) OOC

7. Zeerip (5-3) - Losses to Heflin, Ruth, Lofthouse
Projected OOC win over Jacobs in MSU-MI dual (considered OOC by Big 10)

8. Glasser (4-4) - losses to Jordan, Zeerip, Ruth and Lofthouse
OOC win over Friedl

US, (though could be anywhere from 6-8). Jacobs (4-4) - Losses to Heflin, Ruth, Manuel, and Jordan
Projected OOC loss to Zeerip in MSU-MI dual (considered OOC by Big 10)
 


twade70 said:
I was referring to Marion beating Russell in the dual.

I plan on updating everything after this weekend's duals. I've got a mammoth excel file going.
Click to expand...

twade - great minds think alike. I've got an B10 excel spreadsheet too. :cool:
 






twade70 said:
Couple of interesting results from last night:

184
Dallago (IL) dec Wright (PSU) - Worst seed Gambrall can get is the 3 seed. Will be #2 if he beats Steinhaus
Click to expand...
OBTW - Rutt didn't wrestle Wisconsin's last dual. I don't know how serious the injury is.
 


Update as of 2/14...

Here's what I've got for seeds through 13 Feb B10 action. At some weights there have been multiple wrestlers due to injury, so I include the team record at that weight. Note that some wrestlers who have been hurt are excluded (Howe, S. Yohn).

125:
1) McD 7-0
2) Precin 5-1
3) Sanders 7-0 (I'm assuming McD beats Sanders)
4) Boyle 5-2
5) Pataky 2-5 (giving Pataky #5 seed based on rank...most of the losses were by the backups)

133:
1) Graff 6-0
2) Ramos 7-0
3) Long 6-1
4) Futrell 5-2
5) Thorn 4-3

141:
1) Russell 7-0
2) Marion 6-1 (assumes Marion beats Thorn)
3) Thorn 6-1
4) Kennedy 5-2
5) Friedley 5-1

149:
1) Molinaro 7-0
2) Nadhir 6-0
3) Osterman 5-2
4) Terrazas 4-3
5) Grajales 4-3

157:
1) Taylor 7-0
2) St. John 6-1
3) Welch 5-1
4) Zeerip 5-2
5) Salazar 4-3

165:
1) Sponseller 6-1
2) Janssen 6-1
3) Yohn 5-2
4) Polz 5-2
5) Yates 4-3

174:
1) Ruth 7-0
2) Manuel 6-1
3-6) Glasser, Jacobs, Lofthouse, Heflin all 4-3

184:
1) Gambrall 7-0
2) Rutt 5-1 (loss was by Cox)
3) Hinton 5-2
4) Steinhaus 5-2
5) Wright 4-3

197:
1) Brandvold 6-0
2) Lofthouse 6-1 (loss was Forfeit)
3) Powless 5-1
4) Brown 5-2
5) Illinois (Gonzalez/Barczak) 4-3

Hwt:
1) Rizqallah 6-1
2) Wade 6-1
3) Alcala 5-1
4) Nelson 5-2
5) Rasing 4-3
 


Mine aren't too different from yours, AFHawk.

After this weekend's results, my updated seeding predictions (including projected final conference record). I didn't include forfeits in the final records.

125
1. McDonough (IA) 8-0
2. Precin (NW) 7-1
3. Sanders (MN) 7-1
4. Boyle (MI) 5-3
5. Pataky (PSU) 1-1
6. Eppert (PU) 4-4
7. Brooks (IN) 3-5
8. Kelliher (WI) 3-5

133
1. Graff (WI) 8-0
2. Ramos (IA) 8-0
3. Long (PSU) 5-2
4. Futrell (IL) 6-2
5. Mele (NW) 5-3
6. Thorn (MN) 4-4
7. Stevens (MI) 3-5
8. Paddock (OSU) 2-5

Ramos should have the 2 seed locked up if he beats Thorn. That Futrell-Long match was a real barnburner. Futrell had the win (up 6-4), but Long pulled off a 5 point move with less than a minute left in the match to get the win.

141
1. Russell (MI) 8-0
2. Thorn (MN) 5-1
3. Kennedy (IL) 4-0
4. Marion (IA) 4-2
5. Alton (PSU) 3-4
6. Friedley (NW) 5-2
7. Fleckenstein (PU) 3-5
8. Languis (OSU) 2-6

If Marion beats Thorn, I could see him get the #2, but I'm projecting Thorn to win a close one. Marion/Kennedy is close, but I'm guessing they'll give Kennedy the 3 seed.

149
1. Molinaro (PSU) 8-0
2. Nadhir (NW) 7-1
3. Kinser (IN) 5-2
4. Schmitt (WI) 3-2
5. Osterman (MSU) 5-3
6. Terrazas (IL) 3-4
7. Zilverberg (MN) 4-3
8. Grajales (MI) 5-3

Mark more the likely has no shot of getting a seed here. This weight is pretty deep for the Big 10.

157
1. Taylor (PSU) 8-0
2. St. John (IA) 7-1
3. Welch (NW) 7-1
4. Young (IN) 4-3
5. Zeerip (MI) 5-3
6. Salazar (PU) 4-4
7. McMurray (MSU) 3-4
8. Morse (IL ) 2-5


165
1. Howe (WI) 0-0
2. Sponseller (OSU) 7-1
3. Janssen (IA) 6-1
4. Yohn (MN) 5-3
5. Polz (IL) 5-2
6. Yates (MI) 5-2
7. LeBlanc (IN) 3-4
8. Bialka (NW) 3-5

I really have no idea where Howe gets seeded (assuming he's back). Some other posters reminded me of a few examples of some of our Hawks facing the same situation Howe will (may) be facing. Back in 2008, Perry did not wrestle in a Big 10 dual, but beat Tannenbaum (MI) at National Duals and that was enough to get him the 1 seed at Big 10s. Then last year Beatty didn't wrestle in a Big 10 dual, but beat Brandvold (WI) and Bond (IL) at Midlands and that wwas enough to get him the 1 seed at Big 10s.

174
1. Ruth (PSU) 8-0
2. Manuel (PU) 7-1
3. Heflin (OSU) 5-2
4. Blanton (IL) 0-1
5. Lofthouse (IA) 4-3
6. Glasser (MN) 4-4
7. Zeerip (MI) 4-3
8. Jacobs (MSU) 4-4

This weight is SO hard to predict. Throw in Blanton (who's probably done until Big 10's) and it's even tougher. Blanton's loss was to Manuel, but he beat Heflin at CKLV (Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational), plus he's a returning AA and he finished 3rd at Big 10's last year. Lofthouse really put his seed into danger by not closing it out against Manuel Friday night. I think Ethen beats Glasser on Sunday, but that's going to be a TOUGH match. If Ethen loses on Sunday, there's a chance he could end up 8th or even unseeded. This weekend, we have some big matches at this weight: Jordan (WI) vs. Jacobs (MSU) and the aforementioned Lofthouse (IA) - Glasser (MN). Still a lot of room for movement at this weight.

184
1. Rutt (WI) 7-0
2. Gambrall (IA) 8-0
3. Steinhaus (MN) 5-3
4. Hinton (MSU) 5-3
5. Wright (PSU) 3-4
6. Dallago (IL) 4-4
7. Kissel (PU) 3-4
8. Magrum (OSU) 4-4

Assuming Gambrall beats Steinhaus (which is no given), this weight is really tough to fill out. Gambrall's getting either the 1, 2 or 3 seed. I think Rutt needs to get upset by either Wright or Hinton this weekend and Gambrall has to beat Steinhaus for Grant to sniff #1. But it's possible.

197
1. Brandvold (WI) 7-0
2. Yohn (MN) 2-0
3. Lofthouse (IA) 7-1
4. Powless (IN) 7-1
5. Brown (PU) 5-2
6. Biondo (MI) 4-4
7. Barczak (IL) 4-3
8. Capone (OSU) 3-5

If Lofthouse beats Yohn on Sunday, he's definitely got the 2 seed. Brandvold's not losing to either Ruggear (PSU) or Dickenson (MSU) this weekend.

HWT
1. Wade (PSU) 7-1
2. Alcala (IN) 7-1
3. Nelson (MN) 5-2
4. Rizqallah (MSU) 5-1
5. Rasing (IA) 4-4
6. Apland (MI) 4-4
7. Bugenhagen (WI) 4-4
8. Kuhar (NW) 3-4

If Rasing beats Nelson (which I don't see happening...Nelson has a lot of offense and is a really good mat wrestler), he's probably looking at a 4 seed. This is assuming Rizqallah is as good as I think he is and he beats both Apland and Bugenhagen this weekend.
 


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