Best game to make QB change

guffus

guffus

Well-Known Member
Not saying a change is coming, but if it were, What would be the best game for Iowa to start a new QB?

@Pitt
@Pur
bye
Indy

My vote is for @Purdue. @Pitt would be a tough place for the first start. @purdue is still on the road, but should be an easier opponent. Then the new starter can get the bye week to learn from his first start.
 


Pitt. If the coaches think a change needs to be made, they wouldn't play the inferior player and wait for the "ideal" game.
 


99topdawg said:
Pitt. If the coaches think a change needs to be made, they wouldn't play the inferior player and wait for the "ideal" game.
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Agreed. If you think a change is needed, don't wait.

I guess whether a change should be made is the question, though. Myself, I'm not sure, but I would at least like to see CJB get a quarter to see how he does, depending on how things roll in the Pitt game. Not just one series and then yank him, regardless of the result, like against BSU. I'm still scratching my head over that one.
 


Before the season.

But if you were going to wholesale change QBs, now is as good a time as any. The betting line is Pitt +7 with a 46.5 Over/Under.

Based on that, the money thinks that Iowa will lose by 7 points 24 - 17. Splitting the over-under by 2 gives about 23 points each. Adding one point to Pitt and subtracting 6 points from Iowa gets a very probable final of 24 - 17 Pitt.

Say changing a QB loses you 7 points due to getting used to the scheme and game speed. That would be a 41% decrease in performance. Do you think CJB is likely to be 41% behind JR? Given what we've seen when he has been in, I don't think it's that steep of a drop-off. Probably more like a 3 point drop off which would be 17% behind game speed JR, if he's really behind at all. The QB change adds 10% risk of losing, putting the odds at about 36% from 46% chance of winning. Given that Iowa wins 2 games out of every three and Pitt is the best team that they have faced in the last three games and the next three games, I'd say 36% is about right on par where you would expect Iowa to win.
 






cincyhawk said:
Before the season.

But if you were going to wholesale change QBs, now is as good a time as any. The betting line is Pitt +7 with a 46.5 Over/Under.

Based on that, the money thinks that Iowa will lose by 7 points 24 - 17. Splitting the over-under by 2 gives about 23 points each. Adding one point to Pitt and subtracting 6 points from Iowa gets a very probable final of 24 - 17 Pitt.

Say changing a QB loses you 7 points due to getting used to the scheme and game speed. That would be a 41% decrease in performance. Do you think CJB is likely to be 41% behind JR? Given what we've seen when he has been in, I don't think it's that steep of a drop-off. Probably more like a 3 point drop off which would be 17% behind game speed JR, if he's really behind at all. The QB change adds 10% risk of losing, putting the odds at about 36% from 46% chance of winning. Given that Iowa wins 2 games out of every three and Pitt is the best team that they have faced in the last three games and the next three games, I'd say 36% is about right on par where you would expect Iowa to win.
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Tried to follow this, it made my head hurt.;)
 


Stratos said:
Tried to follow this, it made my head hurt.;)
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Typing while eating and talking. TL/DR; JR probably gives you 10% more of a chance to win this game than CJB just because CJB isn't up to game speed yet. This game is a likely loss anyway, so use it to get him up to game speed because the dropoff of 3 points isn't that big of a deal and will ready him for the B1G.
 


There is never a good time and for the coach it's never an easy decision to make a change. If your starter isn't getting the job done, you make a change. If at this level your program doesn't have a capable backup than shame on you, coaching staff.


As for Iowa yes we have a starter not getting the job done and it's time to make a change..
 


cincyhawk said:
Before the season.

But if you were going to wholesale change QBs, now is as good a time as any. The betting line is Pitt +7 with a 46.5 Over/Under.

Based on that, the money thinks that Iowa will lose by 7 points 24 - 17. Splitting the over-under by 2 gives about 23 points each. Adding one point to Pitt and subtracting 6 points from Iowa gets a very probable final of 24 - 17 Pitt.

Say changing a QB loses you 7 points due to getting used to the scheme and game speed. That would be a 41% decrease in performance. Do you think CJB is likely to be 41% behind JR? Given what we've seen when he has been in, I don't think it's that steep of a drop-off. Probably more like a 3 point drop off which would be 17% behind game speed JR, if he's really behind at all. The QB change adds 10% risk of losing, putting the odds at about 36% from 46% chance of winning. Given that Iowa wins 2 games out of every three and Pitt is the best team that they have faced in the last three games and the next three games, I'd say 36% is about right on par where you would expect Iowa to win.
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If Ferentz reads the above he most certainly will make a change. :) lol
 


Kirk seems to like waiting until a bye week to make changes.

But history has shown that games at Pitt are ideal for changing QBs.
 




cincyhawk said:
Before the season.

But if you were going to wholesale change QBs, now is as good a time as any. The betting line is Pitt +7 with a 46.5 Over/Under.

Based on that, the money thinks that Iowa will lose by 7 points 24 - 17. Splitting the over-under by 2 gives about 23 points each. Adding one point to Pitt and subtracting 6 points from Iowa gets a very probable final of 24 - 17 Pitt.

Say changing a QB loses you 7 points due to getting used to the scheme and game speed. That would be a 41% decrease in performance. Do you think CJB is likely to be 41% behind JR? Given what we've seen when he has been in, I don't think it's that steep of a drop-off. Probably more like a 3 point drop off which would be 17% behind game speed JR, if he's really behind at all. The QB change adds 10% risk of losing, putting the odds at about 36% from 46% chance of winning. Given that Iowa wins 2 games out of every three and Pitt is the best team that they have faced in the last three games and the next three games, I'd say 36% is about right on par where you would expect Iowa to win.
Click to expand...

The spread and over-under bettors are not necessarily the same bettors, so extrapolating a predicted final score by melding the two is not wholly valid.

That said, if you are going to extrapolate, you did the math wrong. You used the over-under as a basis and then obliterated it by subtracting more than adding.

If you were to extrapolate based on those two metrics, the "predicted final score" would be approximately 27-20 in favor of Pitt.
 


I do think that it is much more likely to happen after the Purdue game...if we lose that one, all bets are off. I would hope that if we are stalled out in Pitt on Saturday on offense, KF would put in CJ at some point, and if he plays good, then he would go at PU, but I suspect that KF will hang with Jake unless we lose the next two and offense still stinks.
 


JHHawk said:
I do think that it is much more likely to happen after the Purdue game...if we lose that one, all bets are off. I would hope that if we are stalled out in Pitt on Saturday on offense, KF would put in CJ at some point, and if he plays good, then he would go at PU, but I suspect that KF will hang with Jake unless we lose the next two and offense still stinks.
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I suspect, as do you, that KF will not be playing CJB for a series here or there anytime soon. He probably sees CJB's one series against Ball State as a reason that he has a QB "controversy" at this point.
 


LG210 said:
The spread and over-under bettors are not necessarily the same bettors, so extrapolating a predicted final score by melding the two is not wholly valid.

That said, if you are going to extrapolate, you did the math wrong. You used the over-under as a basis and then obliterated it by subtracting more than adding.

If you were to extrapolate based on those two metrics, the "predicted final score" would be approximately 27-20 in favor of Pitt.
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This is correct....And Vegas setting this line is what they expect the publc would react as the optimal numbers to get the most action on both sides. Vegas doesn't base their lines on who they think is going to win
 








cincyhawk said:
Typing while eating and talking. TL/DR; JR probably gives you 10% more of a chance to win this game than CJB just because CJB isn't up to game speed yet. This game is a likely loss anyway, so use it to get him up to game speed because the dropoff of 3 points isn't that big of a deal and will ready him for the B1G.
Click to expand...

My exact thoughts.
 


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