BCS rankings - can we hold on to our spot?

shonblatt

shonblatt

Well-Known Member
The rankings are highly volatile.

Week one top 8:

.9886 Florida
.9526 Alabama
.8911 Texas
.8083 Boise State
.7870 Cincinnati
.7869 Iowa
.7695 USC
.7139 TCU

Iowa was .0001 behind Cincy and .0214 behind Boise State. Iowa led USC by .0174, and TCU by .0756.

New rankings (change in pct points from week 1):

.9726 Florida (-.0160)
.9450 Alabama (-.0076)
.8927 Texas (+.0016)
.8249 Iowa (+.0380)
.7944 USC (+.0249)
.7890 TCU (+.0751)
.7752 Boise State (-.0331)
.7735 Cincinnati (-.0135)

Iowa jumped up two spots and extended the lead over USC from .0174 to .0305, but I expect that gap to shrink (or disappear) next week if USC goes on the road and beats Oregon. Iowa could trade spots again with USC after winning in Columbus.

I don't think any other team who currently has one loss can jump us, but we need to Oregon to beat USC next weekend to avoid that scenario with USC.

Also remember that Iowa is #1 in the computer polls, with a full 1.000 being factored into our BCS ranking. There's nowhere for the SOS to go but down from there, and as we play weaker teams in 3 of our last 4 games - it may well happen. Playing @OSU should offset that somewhat, but the hardest part of the schedule is behind us. We could win out and still drop down below that 1.000 ranking % share we have in the computer polls.

We could use a couple of dominating home wins to push us ahead of Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State in the human polls.
 
Oregon is definitely a wildcard in there - they're currently 10th and would move up some if they beat USC. They might need some help to move that far up, though.
 
I think we might fall in the next two weeks even if we win because our opponents the next two weeks arent as strong as they have been and could lower our SOS (unless Arizona, PSU and ISU keep winning, even Ark St can help us by winning). However, if someone loses ahead of us, then our opponents weaknesses that could drop our computer rankings will be offset by our increase in the polls. However, I think if we blow out IN and/or NW or win those games solidly and finish the next two weeks 10-0, we might jump in the polls regardless of what BSU, TCU and CU do. I say continue to take care of our own business right now. Somewhere along the line someone ahead of us will stumble, the odds are heavily in our favor of that. Lets not be the team that stumbles. The crowd needs to help the team avoid a letdown these next two weeks. Be an advantage fans!!
 
I think HwkFn4Life is right. If USC beats Oregon, they'll jump Iowa next week in the BCS. If Oregon wins, they'll join the BCS 4-9 mess. I don't think they can jump Iowa from #10, but they might get very close the Hawks. The only other big game is Texas @ OSU. If Texas wins, their lead on Iowa will increase...so even if Iowa wins big next week, the BCS standings might look worse next week (for us). Texas & USC losing this week would be absolutely huge (neither plays anyone tough the rest of the way).
 
If a one loss team jumps Iowa in the rankings (Saying we stay unbeaten) then the system is all messed up in another way.

We are ranked #1 avg. by the computers and #8 avg. by the voters. Makes NO sense how the voters are just going to pick the teams they like from the passed (USC) because as I believe the BCS is not supposed to take recent years into consideration.

On another note. I think we don't have to have USC lose but we do need Okie State win this weekend. That would put us in the NC game (If we win out).
 
Don't know how I feel about this...

If Oregon wins, they aren't held in the national regard the same way USC is, so I think that would be beneficial for us in the polls. However, that would give Oregon the inside track to the Rose Bowl, and if we win out and get screwed, I don't want to play Oregon in the RB. I want USC...I feel we match up better with them, plus the opportunity to beat SC in their stadium and slap the stupid off everyone's face would be priceless.

If USC wins, their human poll average probably won't go much higher, but their computer average will be much better because of the quality of the victory. Plus, they'll continue to get love from the human polls the rest of the way (assuming we win out and they win out, I can't see a scenario where we would jump them, unless we DISMANTLE OSU).

It's a lose-lose, unless other teams above lose too. Make sense?
 
Yes makes a lot of sense. I agree with you. I would rather play USC and beat them so we can get rid of this "Big Ten is weak" thing. People should keep in mind that we do very well against SEC teams in bowl games as well. You know the conference that has the #1 and #2 teams.

Who knows, but it will be a fun ride non the less.
 
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