Back of the envelope analysis of the 10-teams with the worst QB-ratings

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desihawk

Well-Known Member
I actually don't think a QB is horrible just because his ratings are terrible. There's always the possibility of a Dan Marino type prospect stuck at a horrible program. So I took a closer (but very quick and dirty) look at the 10-teams with worst QB "ratings" to see if there's pattern or outlier in there.

Here is some raw data...fomatting is bad but I don't have a rich-text editor showing on my browser. The data lists the 10 teams (in no particular order), their average loss-margin, and also the individual actual loss margins. All the teams have losing records (not a huge surprise) but one team really stands out. Guess which one? Take a look at the numbers before forming conclusions.

MIZZ (4-5) Avg loss margin: 17 lost by: 21, 21, 4, 32, 7 * MIZZ tried 2 QB (both in bottom 10)
UMass (0-9) avg loss margin: 34 lost by: 37, 39, 50, 11, 3, 38, 22, 42, 63
Kansas(1-8) avg loss margin: 18 lost by: 1, 14, 7, 40, 6, 45, 4, 27
Hawaii (1-7) avg loss margin:35 lost by: 33 39, 45, 47, 38, 12, 15, 35
SMU (4-5) avg loss margin: 29 lost by: 35, 45, 8, 1, 25
Colorado (1-8) avg loss margin: 34 lost by: 5, 2, 55, 28, 34, 44, 56, 48
illinois (2-7) avg loss margin: 28 lost by: 31, 28, 28, 17, 45, 14, 30
buffalo (2-7) avg loss margin: 18 lost by: 22, 16, 7, 7, 42, 14, 5
IOWA (4-5) avg loss margin: 7 lost by: 3, 1, 20, 11, 3


Now a brief analysis--

9 (8 actually because MIZZ has 2!! in worst 10 QB ratings) of these teams have average loss margins that are 3-scores and above. These loss margins indicate that they are indeed horrible TEAMS from top to bottom. They have lost most games by huge margins.

One team however has secured a single-score average loss margin.

My take on this is either that
(1) Vandy is an elite QB whose horrible rating is caused by the terrible cast (offense, defense, and ST) surrounding him. He is in reality single-handedly keeping us in games.
OR
(2) Do I have to actually connect the dots?

Is it possible that if Vandy was starting for Alabama, they might have beaten LSU by 30-points last weekend?
 
OR
(3) Vandy is a central reason they're losing and the rest of the team is keeping the loss margin close.

I have no clue and I doubt your analysis means all that much, Iowa's just a bad team this year, and imo Vandy's performance is not helping to win any games.
 
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a bit off the topic

Why didn't I think of this - to measure the hawks by margin of loss - compared to others !! Heck it could have been a great fall !
 
for the greg davis offense to actually work worth a damn a dual threat QB is needed. Of course having the #1 pick of recruits in the state of texas doesn't hurt either.
 
I'd be interested in finding out about stadium size/attendance, revenue, payroll and recruiting results for those schools as well.
 
mrolympia said:
for the greg davis offense to actually work worth a damn a dual threat QB is needed. Of course having the #1 pick of recruits in the state of texas doesn't hurt either.
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There's an interesting GD connection (that I've seen pointed out before) besides Iowa in that list. The SMU QB (owner of one of the bottom ten QB-ratings) is the same guy who was GD's QB at Texas in the season that got him fired.
 
mrolympia said:
for the greg davis offense to actually work worth a damn a dual threat QB is needed. Of course having the #1 pick of recruits in the state of texas doesn't hurt either.
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Chris Simms, Major Applewhite, and Colt McCoy were hardly "dual threat" QB's.
 
I for one think Phil Parker has done a decent job this year with the overall talent at his disposal. It's the JVB/GergDavissystem train wreck that is scary for the future.
 
It is ridiculous that people keep trying to do an "either/or" analysis on this issue. Vandy is having a terrible year, but he has also been plagued by NUMEROUS drops from his receivers, consistently suspect playcalling, and at least 3 games where we couldn't run the ball AT ALL (ISU, PSU, Ind). The offensive problems have clearly been a combination of all of these factors, and to try to lay them at the feet of any one group or individual is just dumb.Ask yourself what is different from last season? The only two major changes have been the loss of McNutt and the addition of Greg Davis. Common sense would seem to suggest that the root cause of our problems can be easily extrapolated from there.This team just isn't very good anywhere on the field, and people are having tremendous difficulty grasping that concept.
 
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To all of those who seem to think my OP was laudatory towards our set-in-stone starting QB: The second option in the OP is meant to be a stand-in for "QB horrible, rest of team respectable". Also the last sentence (about JVB at Alabama) was intended to get a rise, which I suppose it did but not in the way I intended. Was the entire post really that subtle?

To add my opinion on GD-- We just have NOT seem enough of him to write him off. It is entirely possible he is an excellent OC who cannot squeeze sweet nectar out of bitter-limes. His last QB at Texas remains horrible (even worse than before, that too after 2-years) on a new team. GD doesn't need a fleet-of-foot freak like Vince Young to win, that's just a nice to have. GD does need (and who doesn't) a QB who can think on his feet QUICKLY with some feel for pressure (or lack of it). Those 3-yard outs on 3rd and long aren't necessarily called that way by GD -- most likely that was the contingency play that not surprisingly is preferred by jittery QBs (such as Gilbert, and Vandy) without vision. That doesn't mean that I am sold on GD yet either...just haven't written him off as the miasma cause.
 
Greg Davis went 9-3, 9-5 and 9-3 with Major Applewhite and 11-2 then 11-2 again with Chris Simms.

Neither was anything approaching a dual threat QB as both had negative rushing yards in their career.
 
HawkAttack said:
I for one think Phil Parker has done a decent job this year with the overall talent at his disposal. It's the JVB/GergDavissystem train wreck that is scary for the future.
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We have been completely shredded on defense for 3 weeks in a row, and 4 games overrall counting CMU. He was able to shut down ISU (one of the worst offenses in the nation), the worst UNI team in a generation, Minnesota playing with their 3rd best QB, the worst offense in the B1G in MSU, and a good N Ill team.The jury is still out on Phil P, and the early results have really not looked very good when taken on the whole.
 
RenoHightower said:
It is ridiculous that people keep trying to do an "either/or" analysis on this issue. Vandy is having a terrible year, but he has also been plagued by NUMEROUS drops from his receivers, consistently suspect playcalling, and at least 3 games where we couldn't run the ball AT ALL (ISU, PSU, Ind). The offensive problems have clearly been a combination of all of these factors, and to try to lay them at the feet of any one group or individual is just dumb.Ask yourself what is different from last season? The only two major changes have been the loss of McNutt and the addition of Greg Davis. Common sense would seem to suggest that the root cause of our problems can be easily extrapolated from there.This team just isn't very good anywhere on the field, and people are having tremendous difficulty grasping that concept.
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I realize that JVB doesn't play in a vacum and there are other factors at work here. But the fact still remains he has the worst QB rating of any QB I can remember. He has had a good running game this year and a solid offensive line that gives him plenty of time except for the NIU game. He has 2 4 star recievers to throw to. Every team deals with injuries now and in the past. I feel sorry that James has not seen the bench for his own good. I have no doubt he is a good man and teamate. But he has become a bad QB and it has really really hurt his team. The OC deserves pleanty of blame and wish KF would fire him. If there was ever a time to fire someone this is it. Our offense is pathetic under this guy.
 
borgy said:
Greg Davis went 9-3, 9-5 and 9-3 with Major Applewhite and 11-2 then 11-2 again with Chris Simms.

Neither was anything approaching a dual threat QB as both had negative rushing yards in their career.
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Have you ever seen film of those Texas teams? They didn't run this offense. They ran a pro-style offense, with traditional pocket passers and running backs like Ricky Williams and Cedric Benson, until Vince Young took the reins. Hell, that was a big reason I was okay with the hire in the first place, because Davis had shown the ability to adapt to his personnel when he was at Texas.

I've been thoroughly underwhelmed by his ability to do so (or lack thereof) here.
 
BILLBUCKNER said:
I realize that JVB doesn't play in a vacum and there are other factors at work here. But the fact still remains he has the worst QB rating of any QB I can remember. He has had a good running game this year and a solid offensive line that gives him plenty of time except for the NIU game. He has 2 4 star recievers to throw to. Every team deals with injuries now and in the past. I feel sorry that James has not seen the bench for his own good. I have no doubt he is a good man and teamate. But he has become a bad QB and it has really really hurt his team. The OC deserves pleanty of blame and wish KF would fire him. If there was ever a time to fire someone this is it. Our offense is pathetic under this guy.
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I don't care what their star ratings were out of high school, the receivers SUCK. The fact that you would even suggest that Keenan and CJF were even halfway competent receivers shows that you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.And the rushing statistics overrall are some of the worst in the Big Ten and the country. The got a lot of yards against weak defenses early in the year and have been pretty terrible against solid competition. Iowa is 95th in the country and 11th in he B1G in rushing yards per game.This entire team is terrible, not just JVB.
 
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