B1G Reshuffle: 2011 Big Ten Race Without Pryor

[jameskalina]

If Iowa wins all of their Big Ten games then the Hawks don't need to worry about any help. Just take care of business, continue to improve as the season progresses, don't make any silly mistakes and DO NOT take Northwestern lightly at any time before and during that game in Kinnick.

Also, I like Iowa playing Nebraska the last weekend of the regular season. Both teams will know where they stand coming into that game.

 

[CAARHawk]

And the Martinez meltdown should be full tilt by then.

 

[Raziel]

I'll grant you that Illinois will likely NOT suck serious dogs. However, one thing that is typically true is that implementing new schemes on D usually can be done much more quickly than implementing new schemes on O. In that respect, that very logic suggests that Illinois should be a better team on O. However, such improvement also is rather dependent on whether their RBs can step up and fill the void left by LeShoure.

However, back to the D. You see, the very same logic suggests that part of the Illini's early success was a combined result of good coaching, very good talent on the field, and the "element of surprise" since few opposing B10 Os EARLY IN THE SEASON had good tape on the Illini D. As you may have noticed ... opposing Os made adjustments in the latter part of the season and the Illini D looked absolutely awful at times.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that Northwestern would have beaten the Illini had Persa not been injured. And, in such a case, the Illini never would have gone bowling. Furthermore, in such a case and had the Illinois economy not been in the crapper ... Zook would have been given his walking papers. But again, I digress ....

Again, concerning their D, not only do opposing B10 Os have a better idea of what to expect from the Illini D schematically, but also the Illini lost several of their best defenders from the front 7. Given that the tOSU O will still have the personnel to "grind the ball" ... that suggests to me that the Illini still might not be able to pull of a W in that game.

Anyhow, while I think that the Illini O will take a step or two forward statistically .... I similarly anticipate that their D will take a step or two backwards statistically. As a result, I could easily see the Illini being anything from mediocre to being somewhat decent. It would genuinely take a best case scenario for the Illini to be a legit power in the Big 10 in '11. While the Illini are likely capable of being competitive with most of their opponents ... I really doubt that a best-case scenario will be realized.

I guess your last paragraph kind of summed up why I think they have a good chance to win the Leaders. Again, look at the QB's @ Wisconsin, OSU, & PSU. Who in the Leaders Division is going to have a good offense?

Even if Illinois' defense takes a step back (which I agree with you, they will), I thoroughly believe that their offense will be good enough to simply outscore a lot of teams in that division.

I'm not buying the Wisconsin hype this season.....their starting QB this year will be a guy who has thrown 10 passes in his career, they lost 2 SR offensive lineman, & they lost Watt. The most important position on defense IMO is a pass rushing DE who gets pressure on a QB - why? Because he makes the other QB look bad and he makes the defensive secondary look better than they actually are. I really think Wisconsin could lose 4 games this fall. Wisconsin doesn't recruit like Ohio State....they rebuild, they don't reload. They lost too much last season for me to think they're getting to 10+ wins again this season.

PSU has A LOT of problems on the OL, & McGloin is wildly inconsistent. I expect them to struggle for most of the season on offense.

The problems @ OSU pretty much speak for themselves.

Like I said.....I don't think Illinois needs a great defense....they could potentially out score the other top 3 teams in their division without one. Illinois has a super favorable schedule this season....they won't have to be THAT great to take advantage of it. Further, they miss arguably the 3 best teams from the Legends Division - a HUGE scheduling break for them.

My thinking for putting Illinois atop the Leaders Division has less to do with Illinois than it does the situation. I just get the vibe that the Illini are sitting at the intersection of opportunity & luck, and they may inadvertently take advantage of that....but hey, I'll be totally happy if I'm wrong.

 

[JHHawk]

NO - WE NEED TO BEAT SOME TEAMS.

Beat JNW and Sota last year and we are talking about a 9 win season. With a bowl win giving us a 10th victory.

Beat JNW and the game at Kinnick against OSU is still about playing for the Big 10 championship the next weekend.

This idea that we need help when we can't even beat JNW or Minnesota and were as lucky as a team could get to get out of Bloomington Frickin Indiana with a win is insane.

We need to beat teams. I promise if we go into Lincoln, NE 5-2 in the Big Ten, that we'll be playing for a trip to Indy.

Of course Iowa has to win at least 5-6 big ten games....but,that still does not mean that having a depleted OSU will hurt the Hawks efforts to go to the first Big Ten Title game.
As even as the Legends will be next year, tie-breaks will probably determine the champ. Home teams have the edge in establishing those tie-breaks,and Iowa has the co-favs MSU and Mich at home. But other co-fav Neb has Iowa at home. So we could go into Neb at 5-2,and lose to a 4-3 Neb,giving them the legends title...as a direct result of Neb beating OSU without Pryor.
Early take:
Iowa losses: PSU,Neb,and NW?
Mich losses: Iowa,MSU and OSU?
MSU losses: Iowa,Neb,and OSU?
Neb losses: Wis,PSU,Mich,and OSU?
NW losses: Wis,Mich,Neb,MSU

If it played out like that,Iowa could take the title at 5-3 with tiebreaks,and still lose to NW.

Pryor has been a killer to Iowa....lose two close games to him as a player,and just when we thought he could actually help us,he bails.

 

[kicker22]

Maybe I'm crazy here, but I think that Braxton Miller at QB for OSU could get them the same results with or without Pryor. The offense may not be clicking on all cylinders, but when hasn't OSU had a juggernaut of a defense? If the defense performs the way they usually do, I don't think QB will be an issue. Besides, it's not like they're replacing Pryor with 2 star guys. OSU reloads, they don't rebuild and they brought Miller in as the future QB, I'm pretty sure he'll be a solid QB.

 

[74Hunter]

Re: u can't hide your QB talk.... You realize that EVERYONE in the B10 is saying the same thing about Iowa? The league is WAY down this yr and sadly the door for neb is wide open, which is sad b/c they were a 4th or 5th place team last yr. If it happens be prepared to meet the most arrogant and annoying fan base in college football

lulz. Not even worth debating. I loves the interwebs

 

[03bizHawk]

Who would you have beaten? OSU Wisconsin and Mich state were all much better teams than neb. What's so crazy about that opinion? They would have been a 4th to 5th place team with Iowa and Penn St.

The only lulz i see is Nebs bowl game.

 

[jwiley10]

Ohio State will still win the Leaders. The loss of Pryor is a blessing in disguise. Whoever wins the Bucks' QB job won't have to look over his shoulder and know he is simply a placeholder until Pryor would return. OSU can now tailor its offensive attack around the new QB's strengths/weaknesses. OSU still has more talent than any other Leaders program and will play the Tupac theory (i.e. us against the world) very well. Having Wisconsin come to Columbus also helps. Of course, this is a moot point if the conference decides to render OSU ineligible for postseason play. Barring that, I think we see OSU in Indy.

Mr. Miller's selection of Nebraska is also puzzling. As has been mentioned frequently, the conference didn't do Nebraska any favors schedule-wise with cross-over games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Those three games, combined with games against Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa makes for a daunting conference schedule. I don't see how Nebraska can do better than 6-2, and 5-3 is more realistic. Is that enough to win the Legends? Maybe. I saw very little from Nebraska last year that makes me think they are formidable. Especially its performance against Texas and in the bowl game against Washington.

 

[JHHawk]

I will say that if OSU does have the best o-line in the league,as advertised, and Boom Herron and the rest of the tatto five return,then Miller might just be good enough,even as a true frosh to get them to Indy. He is supremely talented,but inexperience is a killer at that position,if pressed. However,if he is protected,and has a good running attack..might not be all that much pressure on the young man. He can throw and run...might be enough....til he meets the Hawks in Indy in a high pressure situation.

 

[edr247]

Doesn't matter. We're going 14-0, so the whole "who roots for who" is a moot point.

 

[Rifler]

With the news late Tuesday afternoon that Terrelle Pryor's playing days at Ohio State are over, it's time to take a second look at the Big Ten for 2011.

Steve Deace and I did a little bit of that last week with this video, and our hypothetical basis was assuming that Pryor was done.

In my May quick look at the Big Ten, I felt Ohio State would beat Michigan State in its league opener at home, lose the next week at Nebraska and win the rest finishing 7-1 in the Big Ten and would go on to defeat Nebraska for the Big Ten title.

Given today's news, I don't feel that way any longer.

Here is their Big Ten schedule:

MICHIGAN STATE: I see this as a tossup to favoring Michigan State now
@Nebraska: LOSS
@Illinois: Another tossup to favoring the opponent. Illinois has played them well in recent years including a near upset last year.
WISCONSIN: Tossup favoring Ohio State..until Wisky answers the question at QB
INDIANA: WIN
@Purdue: WIN
PENN STATE: WIN
@Michigan: I think the Wolverines snap the streak and get the win.

I only see three games where I would be comfortable penciling in wins...and even the Purdue game could be a tussle if they stay healthy to that point....

Could they go 5-3? Yes. Will that be enough to win the division? As many holes as I see in Wisconsin, I think their schedule sets up for a 6-2 league run. They have Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue and Penn State at home, with road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota. Beat the Illini and Gophers on the road and win all of the home games and that punches their ticket to Indianapolis.

From an Iowa perspective, I just don't see that this is good news at all. Since Iowa doesn't play Ohio State this year and three of the teams they will be battling for the Legends Title (Nebraska, Michigan State and Michigan) will be playing them, including two of the three getting the Buckeyes at home and all three capable of beating the Buckeyes now, those are games Iowa fans would have rooted for the Buckeyes. They still will, but the chances of Ohio State wins in those games goes down.

Michigan State has to go to The Shoe and they will face a formidable defense. However, they have the ingredients for success; a veteran quarterback, a powerful running game and arguably the most talented receiving group in the Big Ten.

Ohio State's run of six Big Ten titles is going to come to an end, and the league will be spared the embarrassment of Ohio State winning the Leaders but sending the second place team to the first ever Big Ten Championship game.

I still have a few weeks before I put my 'On the Record' predictions down to be scoffed at, but as of right now I am leaning towards a Nebraska vs Wisconsin Big Ten title game with Nebraska avenging an early season loss in Madison to claim the Big Ten title in their first year as a member of the league.

OMG!!! The average Nebraska fan already has a head so large that it barely fits within the boundaries of their state. We absolutely cannot allow this to happen or we will never hear the end of it. I think we need to call a special meeting of the current Big 10 conference members to discuss means & methods....

 

[74Hunter]

Who would you have beaten? OSU Wisconsin and Mich state were all much better teams than neb. What's so crazy about that opinion? They would have been a 4th to 5th place team with Iowa and Penn St.

The only lulz i see is Nebs bowl game.

Sigh. Been over this a thousand times, MSU was the most over rated team in the country. Oh, I think Bama just scored again. Wisconsin got beat by a mid-major, and tO$U had to cheat and get lucky to beat a 3rd tier SEC team.

Also, I don't that any B1G (or Big 12) team should be bragging about the bowl games, seeing as both conferences combined for about 3 or 4 bowl wins.

 

[MoseSchrute]

NO - WE NEED TO BEAT SOME TEAMS.

Beat JNW and Sota last year and we are talking about a 9 win season. With a bowl win giving us a 10th victory.

Beat JNW and the game at Kinnick against OSU is still about playing for the Big 10 championship the next weekend.

This idea that we need help when we can't even beat JNW or Minnesota and were as lucky as a team could get to get out of Bloomington Frickin Indiana with a win is insane.

We need to beat teams. I promise if we go into Lincoln, NE 5-2 in the Big Ten, that we'll be playing for a trip to Indy.

This should go without saying. The fact that we can't take care of business means we need all the help we can get.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Sigh. Been over this a thousand times, MSU was the most over rated team in the country. Oh, I think Bama just scored again. Wisconsin got beat by a mid-major, and tO$U had to cheat and get lucky to beat a 3rd tier SEC team.

Also, I don't that any B1G (or Big 12) team should be bragging about the bowl games, seeing as both conferences combined for about 3 or 4 bowl wins.

Your quick to point out how bad or overrated you think MSU, Wisconsin and OSU were but you forgot about Nebraska losing AT HOME to a 5-7 Texas team and having to go to OT to beat a 5-7 Iowa State team. I have to agree that last year Nebraska would have been 4th or 5th right behind MSU, Wisconsin and OSU.

 

[03bizHawk]

After watching Nebs bowl game, can u imagine what Wisconsin would have done on the ground against neb?

 

[JonDMiller]

If Wisconsin just got a commit from QB Russell Wilson as is going around twitter, then I will pick them to win the big ten and perhaps be undefeated. Will look at it again tonight after kids go to bed

 

[HawkeyeRyno]

If Wisconsin just got a commit from QB Russell Wilson as is going around twitter, then I will pick them to win the big ten and perhaps be undefeated. Will look at it again tonight after kids go to bed

Undefeated??? That's a stretch Jon. Wisconsin still has a lot of pieces to replace. Yeah, they have the benefit of OSU down and Wilson but keep in mind Wilson "tore up" ACC teams - Wake Forrest, Duke, Virginia. Not exactly the Big Ten. And I remember Jeremiah Masoli being touted as a Heisman candidate at Oregon and suppose to lead Ole' Miss to the promise land when he transferred there. It ended up being a disastrous 4-8 season and had more players returning than Wisconsin has.

I ask you if Iowa was to switch divisions with Wisconsin and needed a QB and Wilson landed at Iowa, would Iowa go undefeated because of ONE player???

I will say they are probably clearly the winner of that division, thanks to dominoes falling for them but if Bielema fails to win the Big Ten and make the Rose Bowl/National Championship with bigger expectations now than last season, BB could be in some serious hot water.

 

[TecmoBowl]

Pryor may create implications even beyond the 2011 season. Considering Pryor was deemed the next Vince Young upon his arrival to OSU, they really haven't landed a top notch QB recruit during his tenure according to a buddy of mine in the media out there. Basically any top recruit out there knew he was a fixture for all 4 years, and went elsewhere.

I don't know off-hand who they signed in February, but QB play could be rather shaky in the foreseeable future. Not a good combo when sanctions finally get laid down.

If the Wilson rumors are true, then certainly Wisconsin wins the division. As for Nebraska, getting a depleted OSU and rebuilding Michigan probably isn't the rough entrance/welcome Delaney was hoping for.

 

[JonDMiller]

Masoli had a lot more pressure on him at Ole Miss as he had less to work with.

Wisky has one of the three best RB tandems in the nation, they reload on the OL more often than not and they do what they do well.

That, and they have the schedule for it.

 

[jwiley10]

Regardless of whether Wisconsin acquires Wilson, I'm sticking with Ohio State to win the Leaders. Wilson was 1st team all-ACC in 2008, but has yet to repeat that feat the following two years. He threw 1 INT his freshman season, 11 as a sophomore and 14 last year. In his 3 seasons as QB, NCSU has gone 20-18 (playing in the ACC).

Wilson will not be in Madison this summer as he is currently playing minor league baseball. Thus, he won't be developing timing and rhythm with his wideouts until camp comes around. He will have 20 practices to gel before the regular season starts. Once the season begins, there isn't a ton of practice time to develop a rapport with your wideouts as a lion share of time is devoted to opponent's defensive tendencies.

People are going to sleep on OSU. As stated in the other thread, I believe the loss of Pryor is a blessing in disguise. Don't forget, Wisconsin has to travel to Columbus.