B1G Bowl Drama Ahead?

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
With a weakened Ohio State, Wisconsin already figured its chances at a Leaders Division title were better than they were say two months ago.

With Russell Wilson finally making it official by announcing he will be transferring to Wisconsin, that puts the Badgers as the front runner for the Leaders and possibly for the Big Ten title...if not more.

Wilson is a huge addition...it's not often (as in has maybe never happened) where a quarterback who has thrown for 76 touchdowns and more than 8,000 plus another 1,000 yards on the ground, has transferred to a new school.

Those guys go into Hall of Fames at the school where they racked up those totals. Wilson will be trading in his NC State red for the Badgers red...

Back in early June when Wilson's move to Wisconsin seemed imminent, I wrote that such a thing could vault the Badgers into the national title picture. Today, I am reading similar sentiments across the twitterverse from national college football pundits. They have the schedule to do it, they have the offensive line to do it, they have the running backs to do it and now may have their most dangerous threat at quarterback in more than a decade to do it.

Simply put, Bret Bielema has things rolling and they just cured their biggest weakness...which for this year could 'help' the Big Ten on the whole.

Now, how does this 'help' the Big Ten?

Well, if you want to win the Big Ten title and you are not a Wisconsin fan, it doesn't help you feel better. But since there is only going to be one champion anyway, there is a silver, or gray lining, if you will; the Big Ten will likely send two teams to the BCS again this year.

That has happened more often than not in the history of the BCS (all but three years) but this year was looking pretty grim on that front, especially with the downward projections for Ohio State. Enter Wilson, enter the Badgers and now things are looking better for what we call the 'one up' scenario in Big Ten bowl jargon...if two teams go to the BCS from the Big Ten, then everyone else moves up one spot in the bowl pecking order.

That could mean the difference between the Mieneke Car Care Bowl (Formerly the Texas Bowl) and the Insight for some team.

I am still of the opinion that Nebraska wins the Legends and am now firmly in the camp of Wisconsin winning the Leaders. I am still feeling 8-4ish as it relates to Iowa's season. If the Badgers and Huskers make the BCS, an 8-4 Iowa team could be on the border for a Top Tier bowl game this coming year....as in the Outback or Gator bowls.

One more positive related to a strong Wisconsin this year; Iowa doesn't play them and Legends foes Michigan State and Nebraska do face the Badgers...Nebraska is in Madison while Michigan State will host Bucky.

Another thing to keep in mind is the possibility that Ohio State could face a bowl ban this year, which would move a lot of people up another rung in the hierarchy, almost assuring that an 8-4 Iowa team would go bowling in Florida.

Let's run this scenario where Ohio State is banned from post season play this year:

Rose: Wisconsin
BCS: Nebraska
Cap One
Outback
Insight
Gator
Mieneke (Texas)
Ticket City
Little Ceasar's

When I took a snapshot look at the Legends and Leaders in May, I had two double-digit win teams in Ohio State and Nebraska, then several 8-4 teams and three 7-5 teams.

Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin were my 8-4 teams, with Illinois, Michigan and Purdue 7-5. I think Wisconsin is a 10-win team at worst now and for this scenario, Ohio State's record doesn't matter. As it relates to Iowa, if the Hawks and Spartans are at the same record, Iowa is going to get the bowl call as MSU continues to disappoint the bowl organizers in Florida with soft turnouts. Penn State is always a good draw, too. If Michigan is 8-4/7-5, they had their 'back to the bowl' moment last year for the Gator but the Insight would likely take a long look at the Wolverines.

If Iowa goes 8-4 and if Ohio State is not in the bowl picture and the Big Ten sends two teams to the BCS not named Iowa, the Hawks would fare no worse than the Gator Bowl.

I don't want to go too far down this road right now as July is going to serve as our Iowa & Big Ten football preview here on the site, where we'll go on the record so our picks can be laughed at again in a few months...

But the last 30 days have really been amazing as it relates to impact on the 2011 Big Ten football season. Mike Hlas of The Gazette also writes about that aspect at this story.
 


I've always felt that adding a championship game will make it generally less likely that the BT will get 2 teams in the BCS. I don't think OSU's troubles or Wisconsin's super new quarterback will change that. Assuming that Wisconsin wins the 'Leaders' division and the championship game, it's still going to come down to whether Nebraska or Iowa or Michigan or Michigan State is ranked highly enough to overcome a loss in that championship game to get a second BCS bid for the conference.

The point that everyone else in non-BCS games could move up a spot if OSU is quarantined to Columbus for the bowl season does make sense, though.
 


With bowl games being able to jump in the standings, if you are not playing in a BCS game, than it really doesn't matter what bowl we play in. Does it matter for any purpose whatsoever if Iowa plays in the Gator Bowl or the Outback Bowl?
 




This will really be interesting to watch. One has to really put in perspective the situation.

1) This QB is changing conferences for one last year. I don't think one can assume he is just going to come over, jell with teammates & take over the division. Wisky is hoping but I don't see it. It is just too much of a change for one year of success.

2) His numbers will go down. He is coming into a league predicated by top-notch defenses. This is a whole other dog. He will face top defenses each week. This ain't the ACC or whatever he comes from. It's just a different feel int he Big 10. It will be interesting to see how he keeps his head.

3) I feel it would be very difficult in a top college football program to come in one year to a new conference & adjust & expect to succeed at the level of winning a conference championship, let alone, a national title. There are just too many hurdles to clear to get there in one year, IMO.
 


Wilson is not a real fit for the Chryst system at Wisky,but I suppose they could adjust to that. They like precision passers who stay in the pocket,while Wilson like to pass/run....

My early scenario has Wisky beating Neb,and MSU, and winning the Leaders.
Meanwhile Iowa will win the Legends by losing only to PSU and Neb on the road.
Neb will lose to Wisky,Mich,and OSU.
MSU loses to Wisky,Iowa and Neb.
Mich loses to MSU,Iowa and OSU.

So in the end, Iowa will go to Lincoln at 6-1,while Neb will sit at 4-3. Neb will win,but finish second in the Legends with an overall of 9-3. Iowa will go to Indy and probably lose to Wisky to finish 10-3. If Iowa finishes at 10-3,with the rest of the contenders at 9-3...will Iowa be the 2nd team in a BCS bowl? It will always be a tough deal for a second team to make a BCS bowl,but in the SEC it seems that usually two teams from a single division makes it,while the loser of the title game does not.
 


But the last 30 days have really been amazing as it relates to impact on the 2011 Big Ten football season. Mike Hlas of The Gazette also writes about that aspect at this story.

In 3 days, it’s gonna get infinitely more AMAZING! :D

In regards to the CCG costing the conference at shot at have 2 BCS teams, overall, it won’t have much impact. The SEC and Big 12 have had 2 BCS teams on a number of occasions. Actually, it may have the opposite effect, as a BCS shoe-in team (11/12-0 or 10/11-1) can sh!t the bed and lose to an inferior team, which will likely get the conference 2 BCS bids.
 


Good write up Jon. I am not sure how the BCS bowls work out for the B10 this year.
I will say (and have been) I agree with JHhawk. I dont think anyone is giving the Hawks enough credit. If I am right and we play Wiskey in the first B10 ccg, I bet KF has those kids ready, just like it was a BCS bowl. In conf play, Iowa was the only team that came close to Wiskey last year. Now you can argue about us losing alot on D, but I would counter with the fact that our D was better when all those Sr's who just got drafted were fresh or soph. So to think that we wont have any D is not very realistic and I think it's pretty well agreed upon, our O should be up a bit.
 




I don't see how getting a loss in the Big Ten Championship game can do anything but hurt a team's chances for a BCS bowl game.
 


I don't see how getting a loss in the Big Ten Championship game can do anything but hurt a team's chances for a BCS bowl game.
Well it is a possibilty that the two teams could enter with no losses, leaving one pefect and one with one loss. Going undefeated got easier.
 


In 3 days, it’s gonna get infinitely more AMAZING! :D

In regards to the CCG costing the conference at shot at have 2 BCS teams, overall, it won’t have much impact. The SEC and Big 12 have had 2 BCS teams on a number of occasions. Actually, it may have the opposite effect, as a BCS shoe-in team (11/12-0 or 10/11-1) can sh!t the bed and lose to an inferior team, which will likely get the conference 2 BCS bids.

Adding a 5th BCS game is what helped those conferences get a 2nd bid as often as the B10.

CCG do hurt a conferences chances at a 2nd team, almost every SEC 2nd bid comes from a team sitting out the title game at 10-2 or better. Better hope a B10 team losing in the title game was ranked high enough going in that they are still eligible to go to the BCS after....or that their is a 3rd B10 team in the top ten that is sitting out the game.
 


Wow! This Wilson must wear a red cape. We'll see how he does against B1G defenses. I may be biased, but I think B1G > ACC where defensive play is concerned.

I'm not convinced that having a transferring 5' 11" Sr. QB who is totally green to the system, climate, and conference with a re-tooled OL spells success. I don't care what he did in the ACC.
 


I don't see how getting a loss in the Big Ten Championship game can do anything but hurt a team's chances for a BCS bowl game.
Be highly ranked going in but lose, you'll get 2 BCS teams.

Adding a 5th BCS game is what helped those conferences get a 2nd bid as often as the B10.
Prior to the 5th BCS game, Nebraska in 96, Nebraska in 2001, KSt in like 98 or 99, and OU in I think 2003 all were highly rated either undefeated or 1 loss teams that made a BCS game without winning the conference, and the Big 12 had 2 teams make BCS games in each of those years.
 


Be highly ranked going in but lose, you'll get 2 BCS teams.


Prior to the 5th BCS game, Nebraska in 96, Nebraska in 2001, KSt in like 98 or 99, and OU in I think 2003 all were highly rated either undefeated or 1 loss teams that made a BCS game without winning the conference, and the Big 12 had 2 teams make BCS games in each of those years.

This season, every major conference will have a championship game (no, I don't consider the Big East a major conference, despite their auto-qualifier), there are 4 at-large bids to be had for non-champions, and no mid-majors on the radar. Even if we just give the SEC two BCS bids by default, the odds are pretty good the Big 10 will have two qualifiers. Hell, didn't Illinois get an at-large with 9 wins a few years back?

edit: Wait, does the Big XII lose their championship game this year? If so, then ignore much of my previous post!
 




In conf play, Iowa was the only team that came close to Wiskey last year. Now you can argue about us losing alot on D, but I would counter with the fact that our D was better when all those Sr's who just got drafted were fresh or soph. So to think that we wont have any D is not very realistic and I think it's pretty well agreed upon, our O should be up a bit.
You may have somewhat of a point there. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
 


I don't see how getting a loss in the Big Ten Championship game can do anything but hurt a team's chances for a BCS bowl game.

And yet, with a net of +1 on the CG front this year vs last year (+Big Ten, +Pac-12, -Texas & the Little 9), somebody still has to go to these games.
 




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