Another "Iowa got real lucky last season" article

Mademyaccount4u

Mademyaccount4u

Well-Known Member
http://iowa.247sports.com/Bolt/Why-...ast-seasons-success-45985810#comments45985810

How much of this is just hyperbole/clickbait, and how much of this is real. I know that the odd are very, very, very low that they replicate a 12 game win streak, but am I just drinking the cool-aid believing that Iowa could win 9+ games?

There will be a very good returning defense and though I'm not certain about offense, I guess I trust in Beathard.

Short of injuries I see a 10 win season.
 
Yeah, you're lucky when your starting QB plays most of the year with a hernia injury, 2 running backs have ankle injuries, 3 offensive linemen sit out significant time with injuries, best wide reciever misses a couple games with an injury, and your potential all-american DE has to sit out with an injury. Those Hawkeyes are a bunch of lucky bastards. We'll probably be lucky to get 5 wins this year.
 
All that mumbo jumbo math is so irrelevant. Games are played on the field. And a win is a win is a win whether it’s by 1 pt or more than double digits. They don’t factor in style of play obviously cause there’s just not a metric for that. So the only way I would give an opinion of that sort any credence would be to see what his two cents worth is on the other schools we play and if he even remotely looks at them in the same light… And here's the thing that same author I'm sure would turn around and say how Nebraska last year with all their close losses are a much better team then their record was... And NE fans will be the first to jump up and down and do that. So if your going to argue that to opposite extremes is the truth not somewhere in the middle? At some point losing many close games late means your not a good team at closing them out right? And if you win a lot of close games then are you not good at that? So it's just all about whatever narrative they want to paint...

If Iowa stays healthy at the key positions I actually see little reason to not expect no less than 8 wins as their absolute floor. With the sky as the limit again. And actually if they were to win only 8 games man that’d be pretty disappointing to not only me I’m sure… I don’t think that’s the first media person to go out of their way to try and justify why Iowa won’t do well again. It’s funny to me that they seem to be rooting for that. If your not one of their top 20ish programs on their list of ‘elite’ teams then they just don’t like having someone crash their party unless they are ‘smart’ enough to see it coming. Which nobody was (and how could they have nobody did)
 
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The really laughable thing about this article is that luck can play a big part in all sports. Sure Iowa got somewhat lucky last year, but the year before you could have labeled them the unluckiest team in the Big. If that clown doesn't realize how much luck can affect a game or a season then I got my doubts if he was ever on a 12-2 football team. I know their isn't a coach or player that won't take a little luck along the way.

More news for that dude. Last year don't mean crap.
 
Mademyaccount4u said:
http://iowa.247sports.com/Bolt/Why-...ast-seasons-success-45985810#comments45985810

How much of this is just hyperbole/clickbait, and how much of this is real. I know that the odd are very, very, very low that they replicate a 12 game win streak, but am I just drinking the cool-aid believing that Iowa could win 9+ games?

There will be a very good returning defense and though I'm not certain about offense, I guess I trust in Beathard.

Short of injuries I see a 10 win season.
Click to expand...

I'd have to see what the computer model is basing its data on. I know some of the computer rankings didn't like Iowa too much last year. Sagarin had Iowa at 21 last year, which is quite different than 60-
Mademyaccount4u said:
http://iowa.247sports.com/Bolt/Why-...ast-seasons-success-45985810#comments45985810

How much of this is just hyperbole/clickbait, and how much of this is real. I know that the odd are very, very, very low that they replicate a 12 game win streak, but am I just drinking the cool-aid believing that Iowa could win 9+ games?

There will be a very good returning defense and though I'm not certain about offense, I guess I trust in Beathard.

Short of injuries I see a 10 win season.
Click to expand...

It's kind of hard to criticize this as it just says "a pre-season model" predicts Iowa to win 5.5 games. Don't know the methodology, the data inputs that go into the rankings, etc. Barring an injury to Beathard, I have a very hard time seeing Iowa not winning 7 or 8 games minimum. The schedule is more difficult with a home date with Michigan and on the road at Penn State, but 5.5 is very low. Vegas' over-under for Iowa this year I believe is 7.5, which seems much more reasonable. Saying Iowa is a longshot to go 2-2 against Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois for cripe's sake is silly. This model gives Iowa a 20% chance of winning at Illinois. Come on, seriously.

The goal for the season (barring calamitous injuries) is to get back to the B1G title game (and hopefully win it). 7-2 probably gets the job done, especially if the losses are to East teams.
 
The model was way off last year. What makes them think it will be right this year? I'll put my money on Iowa who won last year rather than a computer which was totally wrong last year.
 
tksirius said:
Yeah, you're lucky when your starting QB plays most of the year with a hernia injury, 2 running backs have ankle injuries, 3 offensive linemen sit out significant time with injuries, best wide reciever misses a couple games with an injury, and your potential all-american DE has to sit out with an injury. Those Hawkeyes are a bunch of lucky bastards. We'll probably be lucky to get 5 wins this year.
Click to expand...

Wasn't there a Stat where our opponents never had the ball in the 4th quarter with a chance to take the lead in the last 7 games? I can't remember but it was something like that. We never trailed in the 4th quarter until the very end of the MSU game too.

Everyone likes to talk about making a 57 yarder but no one mentioned we were up 7 right before that and gave up an "unlucky" touchdown drive to give up the lead. They also don't say how it was a tie game so if he misses, we still have a good shot in ot. Even if you want to call the Pitt game lucky (which is stupid) that and the Wisconsin game are the only two that had any luck involved. 2 close games that could go either way during a 12 game season is not lucky.
 
I say 11-1 and screw the media!!! However, If CJ gets hurt well that changes everything. Regardless, A seven loss season would be grounds for a change at the helm.
 
Typically I am of the thought that 7-8 wins is a solid year. Barring injuries to key positing (CJ), anything less than 9 wins would be dissappointing, anything less than 8 would be bad.
 
"The Hawkeyes bring back only 12 starters, tied for 9th-most in the Big Ten" Yes, but Iowa brings back a pile of guys who had significant playing time but didn't start enough times to qualify. It was the first year of significant playing time for many of those same players. I would put significant odds that the majority of those players will be significantly improved from last year.

You could turn this on its head and list the starters who have little or no playing time at their position.
P - Colten Rastetter ? Possibly the only RS Freshman starter on the team. Senior from Central Michigan transferring in.
PK - Recinos or Ellis ?
FS - Brandon Snyder - Walk on
WLB - Aaron Mends - I look for him to be a standout player.
RT - Ike Boettger - Only a handful of games as starter before going out with an injury last year. Otherwise has been starting RT through two years of practices.
FB - ? Iowa can usually find a few blocking fullbacks.
WR - Riley McCarron ?
SE - Jerminic Smith Saw light duty throughout last year.
There are several candidates for WR along with Smith & McCarron

That's a pretty short list of inexperienced starters. Many of the other are under the threshold for starts and playing experience, but have played quite a bit at their position or a similar position.
 
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Tiger used to get lucky breaks back when he was dominating. He'd hit drives off trees and they'd bounce back in the fairway. But he was also very good, obviously. Mostly, you make your own luck.
 
BlindDogScooter said:
Ahhh.... one person was... the one who shall remain nameless... the ghost... the legend.
Click to expand...
Ahhhh yes. Of course HE did... haha. Talk about the most annoying fan boy I've ever conversed with. It's frustrating because I wanted what he had to say to be true and we had several back and forths on different things. But those things were just so far out there and unrealistic it was borderline nuts. But yeah of everyone out there he for sure had the Hawks being 12-0 for what that was worth...
 
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