Analyzing the Big10 Championship

[hawkeye12345]

Wow this could get interesting.

Wisky will not lose the rest of the season. They will end up with 1 loss and that was to Mich St. Should Mich St win out (unlikely) they win the tiebreaker between Wisky and will head to the Rose unless they are ranked #1 or #2 (won't happen).

Iowa and OSU play each other so one of those teams will have two losses and knocked out of the equation. Should Iowa win, Wisky goes to the Rose Bowl. Should OSU win, the higher rated BCS team will go to the Rose as they haven't played each other (tiebreaker #4).

Should Iowa, Wisky and MSU win out then either Wisky or Mich St will go to the Rose Bowl because of overall record and then Mich St wins the tiebreaker (head to head).

Should OSU, Wisky and MSU win out then the highest rated BCS team will play in the Rose Bowl (assuming they are ranked #1 or #2 and play in the title game).

Bottom line: Iowa isn't going to the Rose Bowl even in the best case scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Iowa to a BCS game but realistically we head to the Cap1 game.

Worst Case Scenario: Iowa to the Outback bowl

Rose pays $18 million
Cap1 pays $4.25 million
Outback pays $3.3 million
Insight pays $1.35 million

 

[golfingwags]

One part of that is wrong.

If Wisconsin loses at all and we win out we go to rose bowl.

Wisconsin would have 2 big 10 loses, so they would be out.

OSU would have 2 big 10 loses, so they would be out.

2 team tie breaker is head to head....and we beat MSU.

So that is how we get to Rose Bowl. We win out and Wisc loses 1 game.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Wow this could get interesting.

Wisky will not lose the rest of the season. They will end up with 1 loss and that was to Mich St. Should Mich St win out (unlikely) they win the tiebreaker between Wisky and will head to the Rose unless they are ranked #1 or #2 (won't happen).

Iowa and OSU play each other so one of those teams will have two losses and knocked out of the equation. Should Iowa win, Wisky goes to the Rose Bowl. Should OSU win, the higher rated BCS team will go to the Rose as they haven't played each other (tiebreaker #4).

Should Iowa, Wisky and MSU win out then either Wisky or Mich St will go to the Rose Bowl because of overall record and then Mich St wins the tiebreaker (head to head).

Should OSU, Wisky and MSU win out then the highest rated BCS team will play in the Rose Bowl (assuming they are ranked #1 or #2 and play in the title game).

Bottom line: Iowa isn't going to the Rose Bowl even in the best case scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Iowa to a BCS game but realistically we head to the Cap1 game.

Worst Case Scenario: Iowa to the Outback bowl

Rose pays $18 million
Cap1 pays $4.25 million
Outback pays $3.3 million
Insight pays $1.35 million

If Iowa wins out and Wisconsin loses 1 more then Iowa goes to the Rose regardless of what MSU does as Iowa owns the tiebreaker over them.

So best case scenario isn't Cap One it is Rose.

 

[edr247]

Wow this could get interesting.

Wisky will not lose the rest of the season. They will end up with 1 loss and that was to Mich St. Should Mich St win out (unlikely) they win the tiebreaker between Wisky and will head to the Rose unless they are ranked #1 or #2 (won't happen).

Iowa and OSU play each other so one of those teams will have two losses and knocked out of the equation. Should Iowa win, Wisky goes to the Rose Bowl. Should OSU win, the higher rated BCS team will go to the Rose as they haven't played each other (tiebreaker #4).

Should Iowa, Wisky and MSU win out then either Wisky or Mich St will go to the Rose Bowl because of overall record and then Mich St wins the tiebreaker (head to head).

Should OSU, Wisky and MSU win out then the highest rated BCS team will play in the Rose Bowl (assuming they are ranked #1 or #2 and play in the title game).

Bottom line: Iowa isn't going to the Rose Bowl even in the best case scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Iowa to a BCS game but realistically we head to the Cap1 game.

Worst Case Scenario: Iowa to the Outback bowl

Rose pays $18 million
Cap1 pays $4.25 million
Outback pays $3.3 million
Insight pays $1.35 million

False. That is clearly not the best case scenario. Should Wisky lose even one game, and were Iowa to win out, then we'd go to the Rose.

If MSU were to lose even one game, a 7-1 Iowa would likely be guaranteed an at-large BCS bid.

However, realistically, if we win out, we'll end up in the Capital One. I'm not sure either MSU or Wisconsin will lose their final games.

 

[hawkeye12345]

One part of that is wrong.

If Wisconsin loses at all and we win out we go to rose bowl.

Wisconsin would have 2 big 10 loses, so they would be out.

OSU would have 2 big 10 loses, so they would be out.

2 team tie breaker is head to head....and we beat MSU.

So that is how we get to Rose Bowl. We win out and Wisc loses 1 game.

True and I considered that but there is very little possibility that Wisky loses to Purdue, Indiana, Michigan or NW. Purdue is an afterthought so NO chance they lose that game. IU is at home (see Purdue). They then go to Michigan the same weekend that Iowa plays OSU. If they were to lose a game, that would be the one but I just don't see them losing to Michigan. Then they have NW at home to finish the season. If they get through Michigan then very little chance of a let down at Camp Randall.

 

[WhitUp]

Weird part right now is nobody in the big ten controls their own destiny...MSU probably in the best position, cause they don't need anybody to lose, but they need Wisconsin to WIN. So Michigan state needs to win out and have Wisconsin WIN OUT or if wisky loses they need an Iowa lose and osu loss(which they play each other so the winner needs to lose to someone else). Wisconsin needs to win out and have Michigan state lose. Iowa needs to win out and have Wisconsin lose. Ohio state needs to win out and Wisconsin loss and msu loss or finish ahead of them in bcs standings(which they should). so basically the same as Iowa. To be honest it kind of sucks that we don't control our own destiny, but everybody needs help and nobody's scenario is much better then ours.

 

[edr247]

Weird part right now is nobody in the big ten controls their own destiny...MSU probably in the best position, cause they don't need anybody to lose, but they need Wisconsin to WIN. So Michigan state needs to win out and have Wisconsin WIN OUT or if wisky loses they need an Iowa lose and osu loss(which they play each other so the winner needs to lose to someone else). Wisconsin needs to win out and have Michigan state lose. Iowa needs to win out and have Wisconsin lose. Ohio state needs to win out and Wisconsin loss and msu loss or finish ahead of them in bcs standings(which they should). so basically the same as Iowa. To be honest it kind of sucks that we don't control our own destiny, but everybody needs help and nobody's scenario is much better then ours.

Actually, they need tOSU to lose at least once, and would probably like Iowa to lose at least once (or have Wisky win out, thus keeping Iowa out).

 

[MBHHawk]

Everyone seems so sure that Wisky and Mich. State will win out. The rest of the Big Ten is not planning to roll over and die---they are fighting for their own post-season rewards. Would you really want to go in and play Michigan again? Are you discounting Northwestern against the Hawks? Do you wish we were going to Penn State to play against them for what may be a JOE PA send out? Even Purdue and Minnesota will be playing hard----a big victory salvages their pride. This is SPORTS where ISU beat Nebraska and Texas at home in the last 2 years, where the Rangers and the Giants are playing for the World Series Championship. There are 4 weeks left and there are going to be upsets every week!

 

[hawkfaninTX]

Keep in mind that Wisconsin has only one once against Michigan in the big house in the last 45 years. Once. Wisky always pi$$es a game away late in the year. He'll with all the pressure on they might lose to NW.

This season makes me love that we will have a championship game next year. We would be playing in it this year.

 

[Hawksel]

I'd say the most practical best case scenario to hope for is Iowa in a BCS game that isn't the Rose (I see a Michigan State loss as more likely than a Wisconsin one, given the schedule). Still, if the Hawks go 10 and 2 and beat Ohio State for a co Big Ten championship I'll count that was a good season regardless.

 

[WhitUp]

I'd say the most practical best case scenario to hope for is Iowa in a BCS game that isn't the Rose (I see a Michigan State loss as more likely than a Wisconsin one, given the schedule). Still, if the Hawks go 10 and 2 and beat Ohio State for a co Big Ten championship I'll count that was a good season regardless.

I disagree I really think us needing Wisky to lose is a better Scenario then MSU loss

Wisconsin plays At Purdue compared to MSU playing Purdue at home
Wisky plays Indy at home more likely of upset then Minnesota beating MSU at home.

and then since msu only has 3 games left that leaves MSU to lose at Penn state vs Wisky losing At Michigan or NW at home.

I think it's more likely Wisky loses one of those 4, then msu loses one of the three, personally I think they both lose one.

 

[storminspank]

I think Wisconsin loses one of their last four.

 

[hawkeyescott]

Actually, they need tOSU to lose at least once, and would probably like Iowa to lose at least once (or have Wisky win out, thus keeping Iowa out).

This is correct, all four of the one loss teams need one of the other 3 to lose as they have taken turns beating each other. Pretty weird how it is shaping up this year.

 

[mehawk]

My two favorite teams the rest of the season...IOWA and whoever plays Wisconsin!

 

[WhitUp]

Actually, they need tOSU to lose at least once, and would probably like Iowa to lose at least once (or have Wisky win out, thus keeping Iowa out).

This is correct, all four of the one loss teams need one of the other 3 to lose as they have taken turns beating each other. Pretty weird how it is shaping up this year.

sorry u guys are correct I was thinking OSU would get thrown out because of their loss to Wisconsin. But relooking at the tiebreaker it would end up going to bcs tiebreaker which OSU would beat out msu.

 

[dagdaj]

I don't count Michigan out at all.
They still have a pretty good offense.
Yes, I am aware their defense is bad. I also recognize it's so bad, that it really can only get better. If it does, they could easily pull off a win at home against Wisconsin.

 

[racerhawk]

Wow this could get interesting.

Wisky will not lose the rest of the season. They will end up with 1 loss and that was to Mich St. Should Mich St win out (unlikely) they win the tiebreaker between Wisky and will head to the Rose unless they are ranked #1 or #2 (won't happen).

Iowa and OSU play each other so one of those teams will have two losses and knocked out of the equation. Should Iowa win, Wisky goes to the Rose Bowl. Should OSU win, the higher rated BCS team will go to the Rose as they haven't played each other (tiebreaker #4).

Should Iowa, Wisky and MSU win out then either Wisky or Mich St will go to the Rose Bowl because of overall record and then Mich St wins the tiebreaker (head to head).

Should OSU, Wisky and MSU win out then the highest rated BCS team will play in the Rose Bowl (assuming they are ranked #1 or #2 and play in the title game).

Bottom line: Iowa isn't going to the Rose Bowl even in the best case scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Iowa to a BCS game but realistically we head to the Cap1 game.

Worst Case Scenario: Iowa to the Outback bowl

Rose pays $18 million
Cap1 pays $4.25 million
Outback pays $3.3 million
Insight pays $1.35 million

I believe that the B10 takes all of the bowl payout money and divides it equally amongst member institutions, right? So, it's good to be any big ten team in this scenario. It's especially good when there are two b10 BCS invites.

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

Rough scenarios assuming we win out...

Wiscy, MSU, Iowa win out and OSU wins all but Iowa game:

MSU goes to Rose, Wiscy gets the BCS at large bid, Iowa goes to Cap 1 and OSU goes to Outback since Iowa finishes 3rd over OSU.

MSU and Iowa win out, Wiscy and OSU lose once:

Iowa goes to Rose, MSU gets at large BCS bid. Wiscy goes to Cap 1 and OSU goes to Outback since Wiscy beat OSU head to head.

Wiscy and Iowa win out, MSU and OSU lose once:

This is the most convoluted scenario. Wiscy goes to the Rose. Iowa, MSU and OSU all have two losses. This would come down to BCS standings. MSU losing again should put them lower than Iowa however, would OSU drop below Iowa if they beat them? If OSU is above Iowa or real close to (for instance Iowa 9th and OSU 10th) it's hard to imagine an at large BCS pick skipping an available OSU, even with our reputation for traveling. So it would be Iowa/OSU getting the BCS bid with the other team going Cap 1 and MSU to the Outback.

 

[USBHawk]

Rough scenarios assuming we win out...

Wiscy and Iowa win out, MSU and OSU lose once:

This is the most convoluted scenario. Wiscy goes to the Rose. Iowa, MSU and OSU all have two losses. This would come down to BCS standings. MSU losing again should put them lower than Iowa however, would OSU drop below Iowa if they beat them? If OSU is above Iowa or real close to (for instance Iowa 9th and OSU 10th) it's hard to imagine an at large BCS pick skipping an available OSU, even with our reputation for traveling. So it would be Iowa/OSU getting the BCS bid with the other team going Cap 1 and MSU to the Outback.

That wouldn't really come down to BCS standings. Anyone in the top 14 is eligible for an at large, which we would be if we win out. Since in that scenario we would be Big 10 co-champions with Wisconsin, that would be a feather in our cap that tOSU and MSU would not have. That, plus our traveling reputation, plus our head-to-head advantage over both teams, likely makes us the pick.

 

[WhitUp]

Rough scenarios assuming we win out...

Wiscy, MSU, Iowa win out and OSU wins all but Iowa game:

MSU goes to Rose, Wiscy gets the BCS at large bid, Iowa goes to Cap 1 and OSU goes to Outback since Iowa finishes 3rd over OSU.

MSU and Iowa win out, Wiscy and OSU lose once:

Iowa goes to Rose, MSU gets at large BCS bid. Wiscy goes to Cap 1 and OSU goes to Outback since Wiscy beat OSU head to head.

Wiscy and Iowa win out, MSU and OSU lose once:

This is the most convoluted scenario. Wiscy goes to the Rose. Iowa, MSU and OSU all have two losses. This would come down to BCS standings. MSU losing again should put them lower than Iowa however, would OSU drop below Iowa if they beat them? If OSU is above Iowa or real close to (for instance Iowa 9th and OSU 10th) it's hard to imagine an at large BCS pick skipping an available OSU, even with our reputation for traveling. So it would be Iowa/OSU getting the BCS bid with the other team going Cap 1 and MSU to the Outback.

HMM man that would suck if we beat ohio state and they still went to the bcs bowl. Could happen though. Anybody starting to think that an Alabama Iowa Sugar Bowl may sound better then a TCU/Boise vs Iowa Rose Bowl????? I guess either one would be cool. It could be worse we could be the big 12 and go to the fiesta bowl and get stuck with the big east champion.