Analysis: Do Stars Matter in Recruiting and Where Does Iowa Fit In?
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
Now we just need the recruiting experts on this site to bring in all that talent. They all seem to know how, anyway...
RobHowe
Administrator
I think that would be a violation.
RobHowe
Administrator
I mentioned that in the analysis. And in '15, Iowa didn't play Ohio State, Penn State or Michigan. East has beaten west in all of the B1G title games since they went to East and West Divisions. Definitely uneven.
Fryowa
Administrator
I 100% believe/admit that the reason for 12-0 was an easy schedule and a couple of flukes.
Sorry if I restated something you wrote; I didn't see it.
homes
Well-Known Member
As you note, if you want to be a consistent Top 10 team, stars matter, i.e., getting the best projected talent makes a difference. You can catch lightning in a bottle to be a playoff team, but it's a long shot. However, to be a Top 11-25 team, stars don't matter as much, you can do more with less talent. Historically speaking, absent something crazy (or illegal) happening about attracting better talent, Iowa's goals should be Top 25 finishes, with a puncher's chance (a la 2015) to make the playoffs. Even those finishes are far from a lock given where Iowa's rankings typically end up. In fact, given their rankings, it's not altogether surprising they're not consistently in the Top 25.
In the end, you need better players, top to bottom. Josh Jackson, Josey Jewell, Akrum Wadley are great stories, and Iowa will have a place for them, but it's hard to win championships with nearly an entire team of 2 and 3 star kids. Not impossible, but hard, very hard. There's a reason AJ Epenesa played this year as a freshman, he's really good. There's a reason Tristan Wirfs started at RT after injuries, he's better than everyone else who was available.
In the end, you need better players, top to bottom. Josh Jackson, Josey Jewell, Akrum Wadley are great stories, and Iowa will have a place for them, but it's hard to win championships with nearly an entire team of 2 and 3 star kids. Not impossible, but hard, very hard. There's a reason AJ Epenesa played this year as a freshman, he's really good. There's a reason Tristan Wirfs started at RT after injuries, he's better than everyone else who was available.
Last edited:
kicker22
Well-Known Member
You can occasionally get great seasons from a team comprised of 2 and 3 stars guys who end up being diamonds in the rough, however to attain that level of success I think stars matter. Generally the higher the star the more likely an individual is ready to see the field early in their careers whether it be based on naturally ability, size and strength, or they've simply already reached their peak, etc. In my opinion recruiting 4-5 star guys to replace 4-5 star guys generally means "reloading" versus "rebuilding". Sure there'll always be diamonds in the rough and coaches that are known "to do more with less", but unfortunately I think those teams that find themselves in the top 10 year in and year out are not doing it made up of primarily 2 and 3 star guys.
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
Imagine that the College Football composite Talent Ranking looks like the Top 25 AP/Coaches poll year in and year out aside from a couple of stragglers
CJHawkeye
Well-Known Member
Stars matter in the same way you have to have money to make money. Its always better to start with an inherent advantage.
Sure some teams have overcome their lack of "star power" so to speak and some players perform wildly different from their rating (both in the sense of 2 star All Americans and 4-5 star busts) but taken in the aggregate, stars most certainly matter.
As has been widely noted, the top 10 team almost always align pretty well with the top ten recruiting schools. 11-25 is a bit more random but I would bet real $$ if you found a way to control for strength of schedule it would look a lot less random.
Sure some teams have overcome their lack of "star power" so to speak and some players perform wildly different from their rating (both in the sense of 2 star All Americans and 4-5 star busts) but taken in the aggregate, stars most certainly matter.
As has been widely noted, the top 10 team almost always align pretty well with the top ten recruiting schools. 11-25 is a bit more random but I would bet real $$ if you found a way to control for strength of schedule it would look a lot less random.
I would blindly take the top 20 4 stars over the class Kirk gets every time and we would have a better team almost every time. That means stars matter. But if you offered me the bottom 20 4 stars over the class Kirk signs, I would probably still take them but it would be a tougher decision. That means stars aren't the only thing that matter. The people who are at the extreme end of either side of this debate are both wrong. That's true with most debates tho.
RobHowe
Administrator
No worries. I think we all agree that schedule matters.
Iowa misses Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan next year and gets Nebraska and Northwestern at home.
Wisconsin plays at Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan.
That should be an advantage for the Hawkeyes.
BTW, you guys all are five starts in my book. Well, most of you.
I should only be posting on blue blood message boards.
trj
Well-Known Member
And they took advantage of it......If the opportunity presents itself, you capitalize on it. If you are a Wisconsin fan that is all you can ask for .
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
The comparison of our 2015 schedule to Wisky’s schedule this year needs to stop. While we missed Mich, OSU, and PSU in 2015, we played at Wisky, NW, Nebby, and ISU. Wisky and NW won 10 games, Nebby was a couple hail mary’s from winning 9 and ISU is always a tough game on the road. Was it murderer’s row? No. But it was head and shoulder’s tougher than Wisky’s this year...
HawkeyeWalker
Well-Known Member
Yep. "Depth of talent" is the real difference between the 3 factions: Top 5-10, 11-25, 26-40. Iowa's recruiting needs to be in the 25-35 range for a few consecutive years to make that next jump.
Maintain the standards of development Iowa has, but start with more quantity of talent. It has felt like it's been trending up the last couple classes.
Remember, we're only talking in terms of recruiting in this thread.
BlackNGold1982
Well-Known Member
The West division, home of the fake 12-0.
Signed,
Wisconsin & Iowa
Signed,
Wisconsin & Iowa
skinnykilmer17
Well-Known Member
Rob, I have followed you for years and respect your writing, and this is an interesting and informative article, but your last paragraph surprises me. KF rarely recruits highly ranked players IMO. If so, why? Does he not trust a player who may not need as much development? Is he not as comfortable coaching them? Does he find them too confident and not as coachable? They don't work as hard? Is he so enamored in his reputation as a developer that he has overplayed that, thinking he can win consistently with 2's and 3's? Is this another aspect of the CULTURE here? Has this mentality overly influenced his assistants? Do you recall a few weeks ago how Parker went on in public about the things Josh Jackson still needed to improve upon? I mean that's great but what player is perfect? He was projected as being a first round selection at that point. He may have thought he was doing the kid a favor but at that point I think it was just the opposite. Did Parker's ego get in the way? Compliment the kid on his abilities and Let it Go! for crying out loud.
And as recently as 2016 Iowa ranked either 12th or 13th in the conference in money spent on recruiting (Northwestern is not required to disclose). That is NOT aggressive recruiting. Maybe you have more recent numbers now that Bell is more involved? I believe he will continue to have a positive impact in recruiting moving forward. But KF has the final say in any personnel decisions obviously.
Interestingly, KF's two worst years since 2010 are actually some of his highest talent score years according to your article. Any thoughts why? Why does he have so much trouble in getting highly ranked SKILL players to come here? In particular the WR position.
But the most surprising thing you said was he has a formula for winning a national title. ?? Seriously ?? He doesn't even have a relevant formula to beat Wisconsin. He still believes we are their equal and can line up and play them straight up. Newsflash - We are no longer as physical as they are and haven't been for sometime. This year's game was a downright embarrassment and set records for offensive futility and defensive dominance.
I seriously doubt he opens fall practice every year contemplating a national title. If he did he would treat EVERY game like it was a must win instead of laying eggs with questionable game planning and an apparent lack of motivation.
And as recently as 2016 Iowa ranked either 12th or 13th in the conference in money spent on recruiting (Northwestern is not required to disclose). That is NOT aggressive recruiting. Maybe you have more recent numbers now that Bell is more involved? I believe he will continue to have a positive impact in recruiting moving forward. But KF has the final say in any personnel decisions obviously.
Interestingly, KF's two worst years since 2010 are actually some of his highest talent score years according to your article. Any thoughts why? Why does he have so much trouble in getting highly ranked SKILL players to come here? In particular the WR position.
But the most surprising thing you said was he has a formula for winning a national title. ?? Seriously ?? He doesn't even have a relevant formula to beat Wisconsin. He still believes we are their equal and can line up and play them straight up. Newsflash - We are no longer as physical as they are and haven't been for sometime. This year's game was a downright embarrassment and set records for offensive futility and defensive dominance.
I seriously doubt he opens fall practice every year contemplating a national title. If he did he would treat EVERY game like it was a must win instead of laying eggs with questionable game planning and an apparent lack of motivation.
Last edited:
AreWeThereYet
Well-Known Member
You need some polish to go with all those diamonds in the rough. Some skill sets are harder to find. Some body types less common. Some guys who have been tested in the spotlight a bit more.
Another thing that has happened in the last twenty years is there is a lot more competition for those diamonds in the rough that Iowa gets. More schools have top notch developmental programs than ever before. Player development at Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern are at least as good as Iowa. Behind that are regional teams like Louisville, Purdue, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, Northern Illinois, Toledo, North Dakota State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and others. You have to fight for those diamonds in the rough.
Another thing that has happened in the last twenty years is there is a lot more competition for those diamonds in the rough that Iowa gets. More schools have top notch developmental programs than ever before. Player development at Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern are at least as good as Iowa. Behind that are regional teams like Louisville, Purdue, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, Northern Illinois, Toledo, North Dakota State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, and others. You have to fight for those diamonds in the rough.
