NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
To me the days of a big strong rebounding banger type power forward have gone by the wayside. Would much rather have a guy who can shoot, handle the ball a little, and move his feet to defend multiple positions.
Advanced Stats - Through 10 games
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homes
Well-Known Member
Let the season play out, because over the course of a long season, younger guys can wear down, but right now Fredrick has been more consistent that what Moss would bring game to game. Highs not as high, but lows not as low.
Ree4
Well-Known Member
If I had to choose between Moss or what CJ has done so far, I'd choose CJ every time. The kid has a motor like Baer, always giving max effort. I feel like I rarely saw that from Moss, especially on the defensive end.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
On paper, yes. But those advanced metrics just can't address the effect JBo has on the game and on his teammates. The ball moves better when he's in, the players feed off him and his confidence when he's in, and he just brings a grit and an attitude that's just contagious.
It'll be interesting to see what this team does after he shuts it down....
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
In my mind, it all started when he dropped the weight. He was a tough guard inside with that body combined with the attitude. Now, for whatever reason, he's turned into a finesse 4 with no jumpshot. Bad combo.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Bump.
Here is an interesting one. CJ Fredrick’s True Shooting percentage (.704) and effective field goal percentage (.701) come in at 34th in the country and 31st in the country respectively.
It’s important to note that many of the guys in front of CJ on these lists are big men who don’t shoot outside shots and basically only shoot dunks and layups. As a guard CJ ranks in the top 15 in the country in both categories.
Here is an interesting one. CJ Fredrick’s True Shooting percentage (.704) and effective field goal percentage (.701) come in at 34th in the country and 31st in the country respectively.
It’s important to note that many of the guys in front of CJ on these lists are big men who don’t shoot outside shots and basically only shoot dunks and layups. As a guard CJ ranks in the top 15 in the country in both categories.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Without even looking it up I can tell you those numbers are probably the best of the Fran era. I know I had a thread going last year with Joe W's advanced shooting numbers and he was right up there with Aaron White for most efficient season. His numbers were in the lower to mid .600s if memory serves correctly.
Like you mentioned, most of these guys are bigs that get a lot of easy buckets. CJ being up there as a guard is very impressive.
mopkins
King Kong
Normally I'd call it a fluke or small sample size, but the season is now 1/3 complete and its not like the competition has been slouchy.
What is interesting to me is how CJ will be impacted if Bohannon shuts it down. Bohannon leads the team in 3PA and draws a lot of attention. CJ will have to shoot more and definitely get focused more. I'd expect his ridiculous numbers to trend down a little, but would love to be wrong.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I would expect the numbers to drop as well as he takes on a bigger scoring role and attempts more shots. He’s shooting over 50% on 3s right now which isn’t likely to stay that way for the entire year.
With that said if he can continue to shoot even above 40% from deep with more outside shots we will take that. Jbo is shooting only 32.8% from deep and under 30% from the floor. We will definitely miss Jbo, but it’s quite possible that if the majority of his shots go to Fredrick and Wieskamp we won’t feel the loss as much as we expect from a scoring perspective. Again the main thing is depth and losing out on Jbo’s clutch shot making.
Speaking of the Fran era it’s possible that Wieskamp and Fredrick might go down as two of the most efficient offensive players of the era, certainly most efficient guards. Fredrick’s career is still in the early stages but I don’t see anything to suggest what he’s doing is a fluke.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Agreed, that’s why I said I really don’t see this as a fluke. This isn’t Dom Uhl shooting 48% from 3 randomly. CJ has taken a lot of threes and jump shots and it’s pretty easy to see he’s a lights out shooter. Now yes as I mentioned 50% from three isn’t sustainable I don’t think but if he’s open I want him shooting it every time. He’s going to have to take on more if Jbo shuts it down.
We'll have 12 extra shots to get 12 points. Including the fouls. That's rather doable.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
When it’s put in that way it’s seems very simplistic and certainly doable, but it’s not that easy.
Jbo when he’s on the floor needs to be accounted for at all times from deep, as do Wieskamp and Fredrick. That allows Garza ample operating room inside. Without Jbo you likely add another non shooter to the floor who the defense can sag off of and compress the space inside for Garza.
Also Jbo averages 3+ assists.
So Jbo’s loss could hurt depth, spacing, clutch shooting, passing, and free throw shooting. It might improve defense and also get more shots to more efficient scorers like Wieskamp and Fredrick. Where that ends up on the scale of making us better or worse and by how much is the question. I think most would agree it probably makes us worse, the question is by how much.
napleshawk
Well-Known Member
Excellent thread here. Some great analysis to back up some realistic predictions. Love it, thanks!
What we really need is to cash in on the Evelyn insurance policy. To this point he hasn't shown an ability to shoot, but he's certainly a better player than he's shown so far. The competition level in the MVC isn't so much lower that he would be completely ineffectual shooting in the B1G. MVC teams don't automatically shoot 20% lower against B1G teams. That tells me he just hasn't found his groove. If we can get him settled into a role where Toussaint and Fredrick don't have to take all of JBo's minutes and have him be a Connor McCaffery level shooter, I think we'll be fine having Fredrick and Wieskamp soak up the majority of those shots with a couple extra each to Toussaint and Evelyn.
