Advanced Stats - Through 10 games

[NikeHawk21]

I thought at the 10 game mark it might be interesting to break down some advanced stats. These statistics are never perfect, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t useful either. (I only included players in our regular rotation)

PER (Player efficiency ratio)
1. Garza 34.2 (that’s MVP level)
2. Kriener 22.1 (I’ve noticed this stat favors bigs)
3. Fredrick 20.2
4. Wieskamp 18.1 (finished at 19.1 last year)
5. Toussaint 18.0 (Jbo’s best year was 17.6)
6. McCaffery 16.7

Win Shares per 40 Minutes:
1. Garza .258 (Garza led last year at .166)
2. Fredrick .173

Box plus minus:
1. Garza 8.2 (Baer led last year at 11.4)
2. Wieskamp 7.5
3. McCaffery 7.3
4. Fredrick 7.2

Offensive rating (100 average; higher is better):
1. Fredrick 134.0 (Wieskamp led last year at 125.5)
2. McCaffery 131.8
3. Garza 120.4

Defensive rating (100 average; lower is better):
1. Toussaint 96.6 (Baer led last year at 98.1)
2. Garza 97.7
3. Kriener 98.0

 

[PCHawk]

If CJ takes over a more aggressive role once Bohannon stops playing, I think we might actually be better yet. He passes up some 3s here and there. That needs to stop. He can get more minutes for sure. He also does that drive to the free throw line jump shot. He could afford to do that about 3 times more per game too.

 

[InGoodCo]

Thank you for sharing and also thank you for your comments with some odds and ends to help read it better. Good info.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Couple things that stuck out to me besides the obvious that Garza has been amazing.

Defensive rating really likes Toussaint, which isn’t surprising based on the eye test we have seen. Looking at the game logs he’s had the best defensive rating on Iowa in each of the last three games.

You’ll notice you don’t see Bohannon on the lists, and to be honest advanced stats have never been great for him. I think the world of Jbo and what he gives us, but I guess is it possible that more minutes for Toussaint, Wieskamp, Fredrick, and McCaffery, along with more shots for CJF and Wieskamp could end up being a net wash it’s even a slight net gain? I don’t know I think our offense will take a hit but I do think our defense will improve. Depth is probably going to be the biggest issue without Bohannon.

 

[mopkins]

I still wonder if CJ was the leading reason Moss transferred. I think we've seen first hand that CJ is at least giving us what Moss did, if not more.

 

[NikeHawk21]

If CJ takes over a more aggressive role once Bohannon stops playing, I think we might actually be better yet. He passes up some 3s here and there. That needs to stop. He can get more minutes for sure. He also does that drive to the free throw line jump shot. He could afford to do that about 3 times more per game too.

Part of me thinks that CJF and Wieskamp can pick up the scoring and 3pt shooting load, at least somewhat.

But then I look at the box score last night and see Garza and Wieskamp both with 20+ and Fredrick gets his 10 with Jbo not scoring we only get 73. Could that be a preview? The fact of the matter is 73 isn’t going to be enough for us to win on many nights. I don’t see a lot of additional scoring pop coming from any of the other guys.

 

[trj]

Part of me thinks that CJF and Wieskamp can pick up the scoring and 3pt shooting load, at least somewhat.

But then I look at the box score last night and see Garza and Wieskamp both with 20+ and Fredrick gets his 10 with Jbo not scoring we only get 73. Could that be a preview? The fact of the matter is 73 isn’t going to be enough for us to win on many nights. I don’t see a lot of additional scoring pop coming from any of the other guys.

Conner will have to take on more of the scoring load. He is averaging 7.7 ppg, that number needs to get up to 10-12 ppg

 

[revkev73]

If CJ takes over a more aggressive role once Bohannon stops playing, I think we might actually be better yet. He passes up some 3s here and there. That needs to stop. He can get more minutes for sure. He also does that drive to the free throw line jump shot. He could afford to do that about 3 times more per game too.

CJ needs to be Kyle Korver...shoot, shoot, shoot... As L. James said...when I pass it to Korver, I don't want the ball back.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Conner will have to take on more of the scoring load. He is averaging 7.7 ppg, that number needs to get up to 10-12 ppg

See in my personal opinion, he doesn’t have that in him. Sure he can have nights where he gets that, especially if he’s getting to the foul line, but on a consistent basis I’m not sure. I think he scored 6 of his 12 against Michigan when the game was basically out of reach in the last few minutes. Last night he scored 5 of his 8 in the final 3 minutes when the game was decided. Again I like what Connor is providing right now but I don’t think he’s got that additional scoring firepower, at least on a consistent basis.

I could see something like:
Garza - 19
Wieskamp - 16
Fredrick - 13
McCaffery - 9
Kriener - 7
Toussaint - 6
Pemsl - 3
Evelyn - 3

That’s 76 points. That’s pretty good and within reason. The problem is on nights when a Garza or Wieskamp have an off night, I’m not sure we have the firepower to pick them up without a guy like Bohannon.

 

[PCHawk]

See in my personal opinion, he doesn’t have that in him. Sure he can have nights where he gets that, especially if he’s getting to the foul line, but on a consistent basis I’m not sure. I think he scored 6 of his 12 against Michigan when the game was basically out of reach in the last few minutes. Last night he scored 5 of his 8 in the final 3 minutes when the game was decided. Again I like what Connor is providing right now but I don’t think he’s got that additional scoring firepower, at least on a consistent basis.

I could see something like:
Garza - 19
Wieskamp - 16
Fredrick - 13
McCaffery - 9
Kriener - 7
Toussaint - 6
Pemsl - 3
Evelyn - 3

That’s 76 points. That’s pretty good and within reason. The problem is on nights when a Garza or Wieskamp have an off night, I’m not sure we have the firepower to pick them up without a guy like Bohannon.

I agree. I'm sure there are some nights when we might be a little better because Bohannon is out. But there will be more nights where we are wors . There's just no margin for error anymore. If someone has an off night, we lose.

But then, after typing this, I get to thinking that maybe 73 will be enough a lit of nights with Bohannon not playing defense. Replacing our worst defender with our best one has to be a pretty big net gain on points allowed doesn't it?

It just sucks that we can't have any more injuries and we cant have any bad nights from the top 5 guys (Joe T as the new 5th) or we are in big trouble. Of course, we only need to win a little over half of our remaining games to be on the bubble, and it's not like we expected a special year.

 

[trj]

See in my personal opinion, he doesn’t have that in him. Sure he can have nights where he gets that, especially if he’s getting to the foul line, but on a consistent basis I’m not sure. I think he scored 6 of his 12 against Michigan when the game was basically out of reach in the last few minutes. Last night he scored 5 of his 8 in the final 3 minutes when the game was decided. Again I like what Connor is providing right now but I don’t think he’s got that additional scoring firepower, at least on a consistent basis.

I could see something like:
Garza - 19
Wieskamp - 16
Fredrick - 13
McCaffery - 9
Kriener - 7
Toussaint - 6
Pemsl - 3
Evelyn - 3

That’s 76 points. That’s pretty good and within reason. The problem is on nights when a Garza or Wieskamp have an off night, I’m not sure we have the firepower to pick them up without a guy like Bohannon.

I do not think he can do that on a consistent basis either. As I stated in a previous thread, Jbo playing or not playing is the difference in a minimum of 2-3 games. Those 2-3 games could be the difference in making the NCAA tournament, NIT, or just having a winning record.

If JW or Garza are having an off night I don't know who fills that void as the 2nd scorer. At times CJF will be that guy, but on a consistent basis???

 

[NikeHawk21]

I agree. I'm sure there are some nights when we might be a little better because Bohannon is out. But there will be more nights where we are wors . There's just no margin for error anymore. If someone has an off night, we lose.

But then, after typing this, I get to thinking that maybe 73 will be enough a lit of nights with Bohannon not playing defense. Replacing our worst defender with our best one has to be a pretty big net gain on points allowed doesn't it?

It just sucks that we can't have any more injuries and we cant have any bad nights from the top 5 guys (Joe T as the new 5th) or we are in big trouble. Of course, we only need to win a little over half of our remaining games to be on the bubble, and it's not like we expected a special year.

I’ve been fairly tough on Kriener as of late, but throughout his career he’s shown the ability to contribute the occasional 10-14 point game. We will certainly welcome that without Jbo and especially if Wieskamp or Garza are having an off night.

Evelyn I guess would be the other wildcard. He scored quite a bit at Valpo. Just hasn’t shown a ton of confidence here. I mentioned Cmac, but I don’t see much more for scoring pop out of Toussaint or Pemsl either. Toussaint could probably do a little, but I’m not sure it would be in a very efficient manner. Pemsl every time he makes a play and I’m like oh there is the old Pemsl, he gets swatted or shanks the layup. That play last night was hard to watch, someone made a great pass for an easy layup but he waited for the defense to recover because he was worried about getting blocked, he traveled, which wasn’t called, got swatted, but was bailed out on a weak call. He just doesn’t seem to have it.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I do not think he can do that on a consistent basis either. As I stated in a previous thread, Jbo playing or not playing is the difference in a minimum of 2-3 games. Those 2-3 games could be the difference in making the NCAA tournament, NIT, or just having a winning record.

If JW or Garza are having an off night I don't know who fills that void as the 2nd scorer. At times CJF will be that guy, but on a consistent basis???

CJF could certainly shoot way more than he has. He’s averaging less shots than Bohannon and still out scoring him by two points a game. He’s shown the ability to create a little shot at the midrange, as PC pointed out he could do that a little more. Last night in the 1H I was like we need to get CJ a look as he hadn’t touched it much, finally he did and he pulled a three with a guy right in his face and drained it. He’s going to have to do more when Jbo sits.

 

[trj]

CJF could certainly shoot way more than he has. He’s averaging less shots than Bohannon and still out scoring him by two points a game. He’s shown the ability to create a little shot at the midrange, as PC pointed out he could do that a little more. Last night in the 1H I was like we need to get CJ a look as he hadn’t touched it much, finally he did and he pulled a three with a guy right in his face and drained it. He’s going to have to do more when Jbo sits.

Barring injury, CJF will lead Iowa in 3 point attempts. Currently, he is 25 behind Jbo and 16 behind JW. If he is healthy, those numbers close rapidly. We will see if that translates into W(s).

 

[PCHawk]

What's people's opinions on this one. It seems like the rare times Connor does fight his way into the lane, good things happen. Do people think he has the ability to do that more if he wants to? To me it looks like he can but chooses not to because he knows there are better options. Maybe the times he does it it's because of specific situations that I haven't noticed. But to me it looks like he can kinda do it whenever he puts his mind to it. Maybe he can step up that part of his game more.

 

[PCHawk]

I’ve been fairly tough on Kriener as of late, but throughout his career he’s shown the ability to contribute the occasional 10-14 point game. We will certainly welcome that without Jbo and especially if Wieskamp or Garza are having an off night.

Evelyn I guess would be the other wildcard. He scored quite a bit at Valpo. Just hasn’t shown a ton of confidence here. I mentioned Cmac, but I don’t see much more for scoring pop out of Toussaint or Pemsl either. Toussaint could probably do a little, but I’m not sure it would be in a very efficient manner. Pemsl every time he makes a play and I’m like oh there is the old Pemsl, he gets swatted or shanks the layup. That play last night was hard to watch, someone made a great pass for an easy layup but he waited for the defense to recover because he was worried about getting blocked, he traveled, which wasn’t called, got swatted, but was bailed out on a weak call. He just doesn’t seem to have it.

Pemsl has been brutal most of the time this year. I'm holding out hope that it's a combination of confidence and the injured back. A sore back makes it hard to do anything so there is some hope that he can start contributing more. He did earn a starting spot as a freshman for awhile and I thought his future looked really bright. I compared him to Bruuner the way he used his strength and finished well.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

Damn...I was just thinking about something. Lets say Bohannon redshirts. Next year, everyone back except Kreiner...but hopefully we pick up a full rehabbed Nunge. Garza, Wieskamp, Frederick, C. Mac, Toussaint, Pemsl...it would be great to pick up a physical 4 in the transfer portal...but the nucleus the next two years is pretty solid.

I just don't see Wieskamp leaving for the NBA early. He's going to really benefit from getting stronger. We need another post player, but to me...I'm not sure how you couldn't look at next year and say, we are going to be a tough out. Honestly...they could make a run at a championship.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Damn...I was just thinking about something. Lets say Bohannon redshirts. Next year, everyone back except Kreiner...but hopefully we pick up a full rehabbed Nunge. Garza, Wieskamp, Frederick, C. Mac, Toussaint, Pemsl...it would be great to pick up a physical 4 in the transfer portal...but the nucleus the next two years is pretty solid.

I just don't see Wieskamp leaving for the NBA early. He's going to really benefit from getting stronger. We need another post player, but to me...I'm not sure how you couldn't look at next year and say, we are going to be a tough out. Honestly...they could make a run at a championship.

If there is anything the last few weeks have shown, it’s that we do not need another post. Plus assuming a healthy Nunge and Pat with another year of physical development we have some other options at the 4 spot. I think this will be Pemsl’s last year here to be honest. We do bring in Ogundele who has some nice size. So much better to leave that space for Garza to operate inside and spread the floor around him.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Pemsl has been brutal most of the time this year. I'm holding out hope that it's a combination of confidence and the injured back. A sore back makes it hard to do anything so there is some hope that he can start contributing more. He did earn a starting spot as a freshman for awhile and I thought his future looked really bright. I compared him to Bruuner the way he used his strength and finished well.

He was very good as a freshman, but injuries have really derailed his career. It stinks but he just doesn’t have hardly any explosiveness right now. 21% FG for a big man is so bad.

 

[JG10Hawk]

If there is anything the last few weeks have shown, it’s that we do not need another post. Plus assuming a healthy Nunge and Pat with another year of physical development we have some other options at the 4 spot. I think this will be Pemsl’s last year here to be honest. We do bring in Ogundele who has some nice size. So much better to leave that space for Garza to operate inside and spread the floor around him.

I wouldn't rule out at least one if not both of the Murray twins playing some at the 4 either. Especially if they are a legit 6'8" 200+. They could stretch the floor with their shooting and allow Garza to work more freely inside.