Unfortunately, there is not a snowball's chance in hell IOWA will win 10 games this year. My prediction is 8 or fewer. 17-20 wins? Wow...you are really, really, REALLY drinking the coolade. Unfortunately, all's you hear from the new Coach is words like "run", "offense", etc. For those of you who understand bball...DEFENSE is what wins. I have yet to hear that word out of the new guys mouth. Same can be said when he was at Sienna. Again, not trying to be a pessimist...simply being realistic.
True, the Hawkeyes were NOT a good defensive team last year; maybe worse than appearances because one consequence of keeping the ball for 30 seconds every possession was that it helped hold down opponents scoring.
BUT, acknowledging that we should also keep in mind that Iowa lost at least four, more like six to eight games, that we could have won simply because of the lack of any depth...the starters wore down and there was no one to replace them, they got into foul trouble & fouled out when Lickliter had to use them despite the foul totals and the tired bodies inclined to foul more because of fatigue. The guys who were the only alternatives to the non-existent bench--Bawinkel, Brommer, the coach's pint-sized kid--were huge defensive liabilities (though it needs to be mentioned that Brommer continues to learn, and by this summer's PTL play he shows signs of mastering footwork & positoning to be eventually an adequate defender).
The 2010-11 Hawkeyes personnel are at least the equal of the past two years--since to note at the outset four of the five starters are the same, only May & Payne now have a year of experience & are no longer raw freshmen, Gatens is a quicker, trimmer version, and Cole is healthier than anytime since he was a freshman. The only change is Besabe replacing Aaron Fuller, and IMO (with only PTL observation to go on) is that they are pretty much a wash: Fuller was an outstanding rebounder, and was improving steadily as a defender, but with limited offensive skills and little range shooting (a good garbage man, very good on offensive put-backs)--but Besabe will be a stronger offensive contributor right from the start. He is more versatile, bigger, seems quicker, and clearly is much more offensive minded. IMO there is no doubt that he has far more upside than Fuller, even as a rebounder.\
This still doesn't touch yet on the most significant, HUGE difference between Lickliter's last team and McCaffery's first. DEPTH. Nine players instead of five (six when Cougill was healthy enough to play full-out, which was rarely the case--or the few games Brommer played with enough self-confidence to overcome tentativeness toward the end of the season).
First, Cartwright gives the Hawkeyes a competent PG, playing behind Payne who made great progress last year & looked vastly more improved this summer. Second, Marble has been under-valued because of his youth (a year younger than his HS competition); he is not the one-dimensional guy that Bawinkel was, and will be a solid backup to Gatens. Third, Brommer is a year older, is now getting astute post coaching (at last)...and there is a good chance that he can provide 10-15 minutes a game in relief of Cole, Fourth, no one around the Big Ten, or even much of the Iowa fan-base, is aware of just how good a player Zach McCabe is already, and how high is his potential (a reprise of Eric May last season).
Have no hesitation in mentioning that IMO Lickliter knows the game, was a very good teacher...(and not as poor a recruiter as most Hawkeye fans believe--McCabe, Marble, Larson, Brust was a very solid recruiting class for what was really his first group when he had the minimum two years it takes to establish a relationship with HS prospects); but he so lacked people skills that he alienated fans--and most crucially--he aienated some of his own players, lost his team to dissension & disillusionment. That is all the cliched water under the bridge now; but what remains as a crucial residue is that he made Gatens, May, Brommer, Cole, Payne, Cole better at the fundamentals, taught them a lot about how to play the game, left them better prepared to compete at the Big Ten level. All the crap about "style", "uptempo", ad naseum, there is one good reason to expect improvement by the Hawkeyes this season and that is McCaffery has a squad of enough depth and solid hoops preparation. combined with talented newcomers, to make the adjustments he wants to make. And the one most impressive quality that McCaffery brings to Iowa, IAT his tireless work ethic, is that he is one helluva coach...who has proven it by turning around three programs prior to undertaking the rebirth of Hawkeye basketball.
Myself, I'm looking for a minimum of seven/eight OOC wins, five to seven wins in the Big Ten--somewhere close to .500 for the season, eighth or even seventh in the conference (above three or more of Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern). A year from now, fourth to sixth in the BT (we catch Minnie, Wisky, maybe Purdue). After that, IF McCaffery can bring the Woodbury-Gesell-Paige trio to Iowa, we will play with any team in the BT not wearing Mich State or Ohio State uniforms...and in a year or two after, who knows...
Obviously, I am very high on the Hawkeyes' hoops future; McCaffery is going to have the men's program close to the same level as Bluder's buch, Hawkeye wrestling and Iowa football (And perhaps the most important single reason will be that Hawkeye basketball will be keeping Iowa kids like Oglesby, Woodbury, Paige, Jok at home...and kids like Gesell and Agua who are their teammates in AAU summer play.
