A Way Too Early Look at... ISU

[spudhawk]

I plan on posting 10 of these- ISU, Pitt, and the Big Ten slate. First up is ISU.

Iowa has dismantled the Cyclones the last two seasons outscoring them 70-10. After the game last season even a few Clone fans had to think that Iowa was worthy of their preseason hype. Iowa rushed for 275 yards and 3 TDs and Stanzi threw for 204 yards on only 11/18 comp./ att. for an additional 2 TDs. Iowa had the ball for 20:35 in the first half and scored TDs on 4 of their 5 possesions (not including a kneel down to kill the clock). ISU's offense has really struggled in the transition from Chizik to Rhoads. ISU has one more point than turnovers in the last two seasons. Here is a look at what ISU brings back on each side of the ball.

Offense
Key Losses- QB Arnaud, TB Robinson, WR Williams and Johnson, OL Lamaak and Alvarez, TE Franklin
stat losses- 305 rushes for 1,333 yards and 11 TDs, 131 catches for 1237 yards and 8 TDs

ISU returns QB Tiller, TB Johnson and Woody, WR Darks, Reynolds, and Lenz, TE Hammerschmidt, OL Osemele, Burris, and Hicks.

Again ISU really has nowhere to go but up offensively against Iowa. OC Herman has a solid resume and will be in his third season. ISU will be hurt a bit by a QB competition in the spring and may start Juco transfer Jantz instead of Tiller. ISU will likely have to use a TB by committee approach at least early in the year but Johnson is super quick and can catch the ball. ISU does return 2 solid starters in Osemele and Hicks, but Burris struggled at times at RT and Lamaak was probably their best offensive lineman overall last season. It is unlikely that ISU will commit 6 turnovers again in Ames. Iowa is replacing a ton of talent and key starters at every level of the defense.

Defense

Key Losses- S Sims, O'Connell, and Sandvig, DE Parker, DT Johnson


ISU returns at least 13 players who received a ton of snaps last season including difference makers Knott and Klein who combined for 7 INTs and 241 tackles including 14 tackles for losses. ISU has 5 returning D-lineman headlined by Ruempolhamer who was perhaps ISU's best defensive player against Iowa last season (7 total tackles, 2 TFLs). ISU also returns Johnson, Benton and Reeves in the backfield with Benton having the flexibility to play either S or CB. Benton missed last season's game due to a funeral. Rhoads is a defensive style of head coach and Wally Burnham is quality DC. ISU has played a consistent 4-3 against Iowa rarely blitzing- I expect that to change as this will be a relatively experienced group and they have solid talent in the d-backfield and both outside slots. ISU has played some 4-2-5 but think that will be unlikely in this match up when Coker will likely be Iowa's primary offensive weapon.

Special Teams- No Losses

ISU will have the edge in nearly every category of this phase of the game. They have solid returners in S. Johnson (TB) and L. Johnson (CB) very good in kick return, steady Josh Lenz (WR) returning punts again, and a very solid punter in Kirby VanDerKamp who averaged over 45 yards per punt with a 22/7 I20 to TB rate. ISU struggled allowing 12.3 yards per punt return last season and also gave up 26.9 yards per kick, but K Mahoney had 15 TBs and generally don't kick enough against Iowa for this to be a factor. Mahoney has experienced a steady decline from his 17-25 freshman campaign to going only 8-17 last season. He can kick from 50+ but is only 4-10 for his career beyond 49 yards.

If both of these teams enter this game relatively healthy it is unlikely we will see a repeat of the last two games. ISU has been at its best in this series when they had a solid defense and they look like they could put together a solid unit this season. This will likely be a strength vs. strength/ weakness vs. weakness game with Iowa's best unit the offense facing off against ISU's defense. Iowa has more talent up front than the Clones d-line and Iowa has a big height advantage over both of the corners and will trot out two tight ends who are 6'5 +.

Iowa's defense will be a big question mark entering this game- they will have just played the JV in the form of Tennessee Tech ( OVU team similar in talent and style to Eastern Illinois last season). Iowa will likely be rotating a series of defensive lineman in this game and the right side of the line will be unproven. ISU however will have the bigger questions entering this game. They may have a QB rotation, or Tiller could win the job and be booed at home if he looks like Arnaud V2.o early in this game. This version of Iowa's defense is unlikely to force 3+ turnovers unless the ISU QB is again color blind as Sash and Greenwood (6 combined picks in last two games) are gone at safety. Whoever the QB is for ISU I am sure that Iowa is going to force him to win the game with his arm.

ISU has the edge in special teams clearly. Iowa has the better offense and ISU may have the better defense, but given the match ups between the units Iowa has to be favored even at Jack Trice.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

ISU has a bunch of experienced guys on the DL. Furthermore, Nelson sat for them during his first season due to elligibility-issues ... but now he'll be able to contribute for them at DE. He was a guy who they were expecting to be an impact player LAST year.

Furthermore, ISU landed an uber-talented TR FR at DT (Pompey) and they also landed a big-bodied JUCO transfer at DT too. I don't know if Pompey will play as a TR FR (since they might want him to get acclimated academically first) ... however, the JUCO guy will get a shot to be contributor.

Given the combined experience and talent that they have with their front 7 ... I'm expecting that they're going to do their darndest to stop the Hawk running game. That may be a tall order because of the quality of Iowa's OL ... however, the Cyclones will benefit from the underdog billing ... and they're pretty good at getting motivated from that.

The big questions in my mind are the following:

1. Will the Iowa OL be able to get out of the gate fast in the '11 season?

2. How quickly will Vandenberg get up to game-speed as an every-down starter. Will he be improved when it comes to reading blitzes?

3. Will Vandenberg be able to keep Ds honest?

 

[CyChamp]

Nice writeup. Great to see no mentions of "Clown" and/or "Lames". Those only cheapen posts and discussion, IMO.

One thing missing is the 5-star name of the JUCO QB prospect we have...Steele Jantz. Let's see if his play is as awesome as his name. I do think he'll be the starter this year.

 

[spudhawk]

He is mentioned.

No offense but my guess is that he isn't exactly the second coming of Cam Newton if he couldn't beat out Tiller for the job in the spring.

 

[CyChamp]

He is mentioned.

No offense but my guess is that he isn't exactly the second coming of Cam Newton if he couldn't beat out Tiller for the job in the spring.

Oh, yeah, I missed that. Sorry.

I agree that Jantz has been overhyped, but the rumor is that he will be the guy if he can get a grip on the playbook. That may be why he wasn't listed ahead of Tiller in the spring, or simply because they are giving the initial nod to the incumbent.

 

[scourt]

"Nice writeup. Great to see no mentions of "Clown" and/or "Lames". Those only cheapen posts and discussion, IMO."

The Hawks will beat the snot out of the Clowns in Lames.
Just thought I'd take care of that right now.

 

[Cyclones17]

For ISU I think it is pretty simple:

Offense: Whoever the QB is, can he produce better than Arnaud did? He has to. And can the WR's get seperation and/or catch the damn ball? Our Oline will be good and our RB's have talent.

Defense: Best defense we have had in a while. Can the Dline finally get some pressure on the QB? I still say no. But I think our CB's are good enough that we can blitz the LB's a bit more. Our LB's are really good with Jake Knott being perhaps the best in the Big 12.

 

[ISUer]

Great assessment! While I agree on everything, a HUGE question mark for Iowa is QB also. While I do the same thing with ISU players, Hawk fans cling to the game JVB had against OSU but forget his performances against Northwestern and Minnesota. I still think offense as a whole is a question mark for Iowa. What JVB shows up? The last guy with this much hype before becoming a starter finished his career at Eastern Illinois. While Coker is solid, can he handle 30 touches? Who is his backup? What if he turns an ankle in the first game? Don't discount the loss of the all time leading receiver for Iowa. My point is there are just as many question marks for Iowa on offense as there is for ISU, all of which are key positions. So I would not call the Iowa offense a "strength" minus the oline, but that is also a strength for ISU.

 

[Hawkfromnorwalk]

For ISU I think it is pretty simple:

Offense: Whoever the QB is, can he produce better than Arnaud did? He has to. And can the WR's get seperation and/or catch the damn ball? Our Oline will be good and our RB's have talent.

Defense: Best defense we have had in a while. Can the Dline finally get some pressure on the QB? I still say no. But I think our CB's are good enough that we can blitz the LB's a bit more. Our LB's are really good with Jake Knott being perhaps the best in the Big 12.

It's going to be a battle of up front. This should be another of Kirk's highly rated OLs. DL has historically been a weak point for ISU the last few years and even though I see improvement this year, I still don't think it's enough improvement. Your linebackers and defensive backs do seem a bit more solid however so between that and Iowa breaking in a new QB and for the most part receivers I think Iowa scores less this year.

On the other side I think Iowa still holds an advantage but not as much. ISU gets to break in a new QB as well and their runningbacks, although good, don't look as solid as what Alexander Robinson brought to the field. Iowa has two good lineman returning and which helps and the linebacking crew also looks to get two guys in there with experience. Our defensive backfield looks a little more patchwork than I would like. I see this combination meaning that ISU will be able to score more than they have the past two games however I don't think it will be enough.

I see a final score right around 24-17 in Iowa's favor.

 

[Hawkeye11en1]

Great assessment! While I agree on everything, a HUGE question mark for Iowa is QB also. While I do the same thing with ISU players, Hawk fans cling to the game JVB had against OSU but forget his performances against Northwestern and Minnesota. I still think offense as a whole is a question mark for Iowa. What JVB shows up? The last guy with this much hype before becoming a starter finished his career at Eastern Illinois. While Coker is solid, can he handle 30 touches? Who is his backup? What if he turns an ankle in the first game? Don't discount the loss of the all time leading receiver for Iowa. My point is there are just as many question marks for Iowa on offense as there is for ISU, all of which are key positions. So I would not call the Iowa offense a "strength" minus the oline, but that is also a strength for ISU.

While I agree that JVB is a question mark, the OSU game is really the only game they allowed him to play to potential. The NW game I dismiss right away. He was thrown into a situation in which his team is undefeated and he has never seen real action. Not easy. Give him preparation time and he played pretty well against OSU, minus a few throws. The Minny game - well, Kirk knew they were better than Minny and that Minny couldn't score. That was one of the ugliest Iowa games I have ever watched. He didn't open up the offense AT ALL. So I kind of throw that one out too. Kirk didn't want JVB to "blow it" in that game.

So with that, we have one real game to go by. He was good, but also threw some very poor balls that he got lucky weren't picked off. So, yes, he is a very big question mark but he does have the tools to put it all together. It's all going to be mental with him. If he can handle the progressions and the timing, he should be OK. If he can't, we are in for a long year.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

For ISU I think it is pretty simple:

Offense: Whoever the QB is, can he produce better than Arnaud did? He has to. And can the WR's get seperation and/or catch the damn ball? Our Oline will be good and our RB's have talent.

Defense: Best defense we have had in a while. Can the Dline finally get some pressure on the QB? I still say no. But I think our CB's are good enough that we can blitz the LB's a bit more. Our LB's are really good with Jake Knott being perhaps the best in the Big 12.

I think that many ISU fans have underplayed the loss of Williams and Franklin. Franklin was a VERY impressive pass-catching TE ... and Williams was the closest thing to a reliable and "clutch" WR that the 'Clones had. Reynolds, Darks, and Lenz give them some quality targets ... but for a system on O that ideally should be a bit more pass-oriented, it's still doesn't feature quite enough consistency and firepower.

While I like Terran Benton A LOT and think that he's a very good player ... I also think that he'd be every bit as green at safety as Iowa's Hyde would be at safety. Thus, in the second game of the season, I'd expect that ISU would still be a bit exploitable at that spot. Furthermore, while Klein and Knott are studs ... I still like how Iowa's passing game would fare against their 3rd LB.

Of course, as some of the ISU fans rightly point out ... my vantage also presupposes that the ISU pass-rush doesn't rattle Vandenberg. However, the last full game that Vandenberg played, he was still pretty easily rattled by pressure.

Thus, that begs the question as to whether Rhoads and Wally continue to play coverage against Iowa ... OR if they decide to bring the heat and take the risk of "guessing wrong."

 

[jozzer]

I hate to state the obvious, but we're going to smoke ISU. Since when was Steele Jantz converted to a 5 star QB too? LOL.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Question to ISU fans: Will Lattimer be playing by game 2?

In my mind, Lattimer is a bit of a difference maker on the DL for them. With him in, they're much better against the run. With him out, they're lacking a bit of a presence on the edge.

 

[ISUer]

I hate to state the obvious, but we're going to smoke ISU. Since when was Steele Jantz converted to a 5 star QB too? LOL.

How many points you giving me? For the first time in four years I am going to say ISU wins this game. And I am also going to say somewhere in the neighborhood of 2005. This will be ISU's best "teams" since the McCarney era. No standout players minus Knott but the fundamentals of this team will be outstanding.

As for Lattimer, to be honest, I doubt he misses a second of the season. He is that valuable.

 

[Travisam]

I hate to state the obvious, but we're going to smoke ISU. Since when was Steele Jantz converted to a 5 star QB too? LOL.

5*, 3* JUCO....same thing.

Steele Jantz - Yahoo! Sports

 

[Cyclones17]

I think that many ISU fans have underplayed the loss of Williams and Franklin. Franklin was a VERY impressive pass-catching TE ... and Williams was the closest thing to a reliable and "clutch" WR that the 'Clones had. Reynolds, Darks, and Lenz give them some quality targets ... but for a system on O that ideally should be a bit more pass-oriented, it's still doesn't feature quite enough consistency and firepower.

While I like Terran Benton A LOT and think that he's a very good player ... I also think that he'd be every bit as green at safety as Iowa's Hyde would be at safety. Thus, in the second game of the season, I'd expect that ISU would still be a bit exploitable at that spot. Furthermore, while Klein and Knott are studs ... I still like how Iowa's passing game would fare against their 3rd LB.

Of course, as some of the ISU fans rightly point out ... my vantage also presupposes that the ISU pass-rush doesn't rattle Vandenberg. However, the last full game that Vandenberg played, he was still pretty easily rattled by pressure.

Thus, that begs the question as to whether Rhoads and Wally continue to play coverage against Iowa ... OR if they decide to bring the heat and take the risk of "guessing wrong."

No question that losing Franklin hurts Iowa State but I don't think losing Williams hurts at all. Sure he was one of our best WR, but that isn't saying much. If Jake Williams is the best WR you have on your team, than your WR's stink. I think we will be better at this position this year, but how much? Needs to improve a lot.

I think Benton will be just fine. He is a great tackler and we missed him a ton against Iowa last year. He also has the size for safety where it seems Hyde might be a little on the light side. Am I wrong on that?

 

[Cyclones17]

I hate to state the obvious, but we're going to smoke ISU. Since when was Steele Jantz converted to a 5 star QB too? LOL.

Nice writeup. Great to see no mentions of "Clown" and/or "Lames". Those only cheapen posts and discussion, IMO.

One thing missing is the 5-star name of the JUCO QB prospect we have...Steele Jantz. Let's see if his play is as awesome as his name. I do think he'll be the starter this year.

5*, 3* JUCO....same thing.

Steele Jantz - Yahoo! Sports

As you can see, he never said that Jantz was a 5*. He said he had a 5* name.

 

[Mick]

How many points you giving me? For the first time in four years I am going to say ISU wins this game. And I am also going to say somewhere in the neighborhood of 2005. This will be ISU's best "teams" since the McCarney era. No standout players minus Knott but the fundamentals of this team will be outstanding.

As for Lattimer, to be honest, I doubt he misses a second of the season. He is that valuable.

Let me get this straight, you lose your starting qb, rb, your best ol, and top 2 wr, and you think the new guys coming in are going to put up 20+ points on Iowa?

Please explain.

 

[cmhawks99]

I hate to state the obvious, but we're going to smoke ISU. Since when was Steele Jantz converted to a 5 star QB too? LOL.

He said 5-star "name" I personally thought it was funny.....as far as the blow out goes, this game doesn't have much to do with talent. Iowa has more talent, but ISU will play very hard and they have some very solid Rbers, two terrific Lbers and “some” DB talent. They also have two very good O-linemen.

I am in no way counting this game as a W! History has proven the futility of that, and last season’s outcomes really mean little. Now as an ISU fan I’m much more concerned about my long term out come. They need to improve all season long and make a dent in the Big 12.

Chad

 

[ISUer]

While I agree that JVB is a question mark, the OSU game is really the only game they allowed him to play to potential. The NW game I dismiss right away. He was thrown into a situation in which his team is undefeated and he has never seen real action. Not easy. Give him preparation time and he played pretty well against OSU, minus a few throws. The Minny game - well, Kirk knew they were better than Minny and that Minny couldn't score. That was one of the ugliest Iowa games I have ever watched. He didn't open up the offense AT ALL. So I kind of throw that one out too. Kirk didn't want JVB to "blow it" in that game.

So with that, we have one real game to go by. He was good, but also threw some very poor balls that he got lucky weren't picked off. So, yes, he is a very big question mark but he does have the tools to put it all together. It's all going to be mental with him. If he can handle the progressions and the timing, he should be OK. If he can't, we are in for a long year.

I agree on all points. It will be interesting. Tiller is needing that progression too as his first start he won in Lincoln, granted with 8 turnovers, but still had the poise against maybe the best Dline ever in college football. But who even knows if he is the QB. He seems to have the tools but needs to take that next step.