A Fran Weakness Is Rearing It's Head Again

Great deep dive ....
After all that, all I can say (have been saying) is, it's gonna be a challenge for this team to make the NIT!

Can’t disagree with this. Even if the Seton Hall and the Nebraska wins turn out to be Quad1 victories it feels like a fail.
 
It's not a Fran weakness, it's a program weakness as we've seen through the years. I covered the end of the Mr. Davis era and this is almost identical discussion to what was happening then.

Iowa is a football school. That program receives the bulk of support from donors and fans. In the grand scheme of things, the programs are comparable in success rate.

Were people falling over themselves to get the Iowa MBB coaching job the last two times it was open? I covered that as well. I know the answer.
I think Iowa is usually one player short of an elite team. Usually one NBA talent and 7 supporting players,
We need one more NBA level talent every year to get over the hump.
 
Can’t disagree with this. Even if the Seton Hall and the Nebraska wins turn out to be Quad1 victories it feels like a fail.
Agree, NIT may be a struggle for this team, the NIT has become a very select group these days, really no interest Nationally, other than the teams and their fans who want to see one, two more games, no revenue bonanza so who really cares, I don't, I would rather go watch an AAU game at a local Y someplace, maybe a glance at the future.
 
It's not a Fran weakness, it's a program weakness as we've seen through the years. I covered the end of the Mr. Davis era and this is almost identical discussion to what was happening then.

Iowa is a football school. That program receives the bulk of support from donors and fans. In the grand scheme of things, the programs are comparable in success rate.

Were people falling over themselves to get the Iowa MBB coaching job the last two times it was open? I covered that as well. I know the answer.
If you're talking on a macro level (program) I certainly agree with you. You had a perspective of the late Davis years as well that few of us have. And I remember Davis struggling in close games as well, as well as myself being the harshest Jess Settles critic on this board (he did some of the dumbest things during crucial possessions I ever saw)

In addition to Iowa being a football school, men's basketball competes directly with wrestling and, as long as Clark is here, women's basketball. Add the star power the men's team has lost rhe last three years, and how little they accomplished in the postseason with those players, and it's a perfect storm for apathy.

As for the micro (performance in crucial possessions) that is entirely on Fran. Something is not being done properly, whether scouting or practice sessions. Want to know what Bo Ryan's record was in close games? I don't need to tell you. Just look at his streak of top four league finishes, the conference titles won or shared, and the number of deep NCAA runs he made and it will tell you all rhat is needed to know. And those Wisconsin teams had no more talent than we did.

Our offense looked completely discombobulated late vs Penn State, our defense likewise vs Maryland. Not so much when CMac and JBo were here. They had more clutch genes between the two of them then the entire rest of the program in Fran's thirteen plus years combined.
 
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I think at the absolute most, Fran deserves 5% of the blame for the "not winning close games" issue. The other 95% of the blame goes to the Gesell class. Those guys lost so many close games over a 4 year period. Other than those years, there hasn't been an issue. Other than thinking there's an issue every time we lose a close game.
 
I think at the absolute most, Fran deserves 5% of the blame for the "not winning close games" issue. The other 95% of the blame goes to the Gesell class. Those guys lost so many close games over a 4 year period. Other than those years, there hasn't been an issue. Other than thinking there's an issue every time we lose a close game.
Losing over 70% of them over an eight year sample size is a major issue. Go 50/50 in those games and you're two games better in the standings for every ten such games played. In a typical B1G season that can jump you half a dozen spots in the standings, improve conference tournament seeding, and improve NCAA seeding if not flat out put you in the NCAA'S. It's a big deal and its a coaching deal. How many times have you seen us come out of a huddle with the game on the line and look like we didn't have a clue what we were doing offense or defense? And how many times in the Connor era did it look like we did have a clue? How can people not see the difference?
 
Think about how much the Kinnick crowd helps the football team. Ever notice how many pre-snap penalties occur there that impacts the game, especially in the north end zone? As someone who is on the sideline for every home game, I know the answer.

The end of that Maryland MBB game this year, it was like a church in CHA. The men's basketball team, way too often, must make its own energy at home, unlike Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU...heck, even northwestern and nebraska have better home crowds now. Carver is like Bryce Jordan these days.

If not for covid canceling the tournament in '20, Iowa would be on a five-year run of NCCA berths. That's happened twice in program history - '79-83 & '85-89. After those runs, the best the program has done is reach the big dance three years in a row. That happened '91-93 and now Fran has done it twice ('14-16) and ('21-23). And, as mentioned, the current three-year run would be five without covid.

He certainly deserves credit for resurrecting the thing after Lickliter and Alford lit a match to it. And he's done it with fewer resources than some of his Big Ten competition. Iowa's NIL for men's basketball is meh, at best. And other than Nebraska, which is debatable, in-state talent here might be lighter than anywhere else in the B1G.

Is Fran blameless in not breaking the Sweet 16 drought? Of course not. He has weaknesses and is ultimately responsible. The buck stops with him.

The title of the thread is "A Fran Weakness Is Rearing It's Head Again"

I will submit again that it's more a program weakness based on interest level at a school with fans that support wrestling more than men's basketball. You'll notice the nice new facility being built at CHA ain't for attracting hoops recruits. I think the women's basketball attendance will remain solid after CC leaves, but a drop-off can be expected. How much? Hard to say.

I certainly get the Fran fatigue. People want more and that's their right as fans. I rarely would I say there's not someone out there capable of raising the program higher. There is just like there are people that would be better than KF.

I will say the odds of improving the men's basketball position are not good with the resources and fan interest right now. Again, it's not the most attractive job unless UI supports it more. The fan experience at CHA sucks, especially for kids and students. No future fans are being grown.

Barta got lucky with a little known guy from Siena.
 
Fran being Iowa's all time winningest coach and the fact that so many posters still can't connect with him tells you everything you need to know. Like, Iowa wins more with Fran then anyone else, "he sucks, not good enough" ....well, maybe your expectations are a bit out of whack here.

Also, the take "going to be tough to get to the NIT" is likely the dumbest thing I've read on this site at least at this point of the season. So, tell me you don't watch basketball without saying you don't watch basketball. Right now there are 6 B1G teams projected to go to the NCAA's - Iowa is currently the 7th highest NET ranking and 1 game out of .500.

The NIT also changed this coming into this season

For the 2024 NIT, conference regular-season champions that do not win their conference tournament or are not otherwise selected to the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will not receive an automatic bid to the NIT.

That move wasn't made in order to take some more Dartmouths and UNC Asheville's of the world can make it. Not that it matters because it doesn't, but Iowa is in a REALLY good position to go to the NIT if they miss the dance. Likely a higher seed as things stand today.

like, I don't want or care about the NIT, but I also really dislike people who don't know how things work that talk like they do.
 
Nice eloquent, fair, and logic filled post by Mr Howe. Then right after the Fran's the winningest coach and you just can't connect with him bit. Also the people are saying he sucks which is not the case. Then the out of whack expectations thing again.

Any coach, most wins or not, can be evaluated. We say he has weakness and can do better in some areas is not saying he sucks. Try to diminish criticism by making it seem harsher or unfair is not flying. Just not accurate. Some do come on the boards here and Fran hate at times but this thread has been fair and objective. The "average at best" comment was a bit hard on Fran but still not he sucks get him out of here type comments.

Florida Gulf coast can wins some in the tournament. Florida Atlantic can go to the Final four. Others small school like Loyola Chicago etc. Us getting to a Sweet 16 is, I know, out of whack expectations. Going 23-16 in close games during that 2019-2023 era instead of 19-20 is also "a bit out of whack".

Saying he hasn't a great record in close games or his teams get down near 20 points more times than I would like or less up and down play or playing better defense on a more consistent basis are not unfair comments or out of whack expectations esp. when we have seen those things for as long as we have.
 
I agree with Howe. Fran has held up his end of the bargain, except for a tourney run. He has fielded solid teams, plays a fun brand of BB, and has made Iowa nationally relevant through Garza and the Murrays. This is a rebuilding year and he still has the team in position for at least the NIT. He has done all that without the resources, NIL, competitive salary and fan support of our competitors within the conference, and he was taking over a dumpster fire to start with.

Its time for the administration to now step up and put some resources and commitment to the program to get the fans back. Pay students to attend and be rowdy (meaning have paid student ambassadors helping to fill the seats and be rowdy). If Carver is too big black out top seats and get everyone in the lower portion of the bowl until more space is needed. Splash in as much booze as is legal and possible. Have a kid fan program. Get creative. Go visit a Creighton game and see how they have built a fanbase out of nothing by having a cool fan experience. Make it an event.

Frankly, I have thought for a long time that the answer is more fundemental and expensive to fix. You want to reset interest in the program? Cede Carver to the wrestling program and build a more intimate and fan friendly facility in the heart of campus.
 
Frans biggest weakness at Iowa has been his crowd support. How much better would Iowa's record be at home if we had the stadium even half full?

Great program, great players, good coach - terrible fan support - good luck with that on the next coach ya get. Even if you're successful, nobody cares.


GFxi8VgXMAAYa6U
 
Fran being Iowa's all time winningest coach and the fact that so many posters still can't connect with him tells you everything you need to know. Like, Iowa wins more with Fran then anyone else, "he sucks, not good enough" ....well, maybe your expectations are a bit out of whack here.

Also, the take "going to be tough to get to the NIT" is likely the dumbest thing I've read on this site at least at this point of the season. So, tell me you don't watch basketball without saying you don't watch basketball. Right now there are 6 B1G teams projected to go to the NCAA's - Iowa is currently the 7th highest NET ranking and 1 game out of .500.

The NIT also changed this coming into this season

For the 2024 NIT, conference regular-season champions that do not win their conference tournament or are not otherwise selected to the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will not receive an automatic bid to the NIT.

That move wasn't made in order to take some more Dartmouths and UNC Asheville's of the world can make it. Not that it matters because it doesn't, but Iowa is in a REALLY good position to go to the NIT if they miss the dance. Likely a higher seed as things stand today.

like, I don't want or care about the NIT, but I also really dislike people who don't know how things work that talk like they do.

The way I understood it was the NIT would take two teams from each of the six major conferences with the highest net ranking that didn’t make the tournament.

Right now, they are firmly entrenched in that 7th spot and even if Ohio State surpassed them they would still get a bid.

I just assumed all of those conference teams with a similar record to Iowa’s were all lumped together in the 60’s and 70’s of the Net ranking. I was wrong on that it is spread out.
 
I agree with Howe. Fran has held up his end of the bargain, except for a tourney run. He has fielded solid teams, plays a fun brand of BB, and has made Iowa nationally relevant through Garza and the Murrays. This is a rebuilding year and he still has the team in position for at least the NIT. He has done all that without the resources, NIL, competitive salary and fan support of our competitors within the conference, and he was taking over a dumpster fire to start with.

Its time for the administration to now step up and put some resources and commitment to the program to get the fans back. Pay students to attend and be rowdy (meaning have paid student ambassadors helping to fill the seats and be rowdy). If Carver is too big black out top seats and get everyone in the lower portion of the bowl until more space is needed. Splash in as much booze as is legal and possible. Have a kid fan program. Get creative. Go visit a Creighton game and see how they have built a fanbase out of nothing by having a cool fan experience. Make it an event.

Frankly, I have thought for a long time that the answer is more fundemental and expensive to fix. You want to reset interest in the program? Cede Carver to the wrestling program and build a more intimate and fan friendly facility in the heart of campus.
Could they convert those top rows to boxes?
 
Gotta start with the student section. That needs to be behind the visitors bench like yesterday. It will upset some donors that like those seats but too bad.

And put some damn vendors in the stands so people, especially all the way down on the bottom of the bowl, can get a drink or hotdog without having to climb all the way up to the top, wait in line and miss some of the game.

The contests during the timeouts suck. The halftime shows are mostly non-existent. Put more ticket packages together for games that are more difficult for most people to attend (late starts on weeknights)

I could go on.

Barta just deferred to the big donors and balked at change, especially with the students. Goetz sounds like she wants to change it up. Let's hope she does.
 
Could they convert those top rows to boxes?
Businesses are always looking for reasonably priced ways to impress clients. Boxes are so much better than just buying 8 seats for the game. Its impressive, great view, private bathroom, bar, food, etc. They would sell.

I have great memories of Carver, but its stale, poorly located, and not set up for a modern fan experience.

I agree with Rob though that the student section is the linchpin. Fix that, casual fans will start to come back.

Look, Beth just needs to form a commission or hire a consultant to study the ideas and come up with recommendations. Show she cares and is doing something about it and use the commission as bad guys when you have to move some doners back a few rows.
 
The way I understood it was the NIT would take two teams from each of the six major conferences with the highest net ranking that didn’t make the tournament.

Right now, they are firmly entrenched in that 7th spot and even if Ohio State surpassed them they would still get a bid.

I just assumed all of those conference teams with a similar record to Iowa’s were all lumped together in the 60’s and 70’s of the Net ranking. I was wrong on that it is spread out.
Right, if they lose out or something or this just all falls apart, they likely aren't going to make the NIT, but as of now, if things kind of go chalk down the stretch, it's going to be hard for anyone to really pass them - they aren't a lock by any means but this "I don't even see them making the NIT" is just something to say at this point to try and pile on - Iowa is in a very good position to make the NIT with still a punchers shot at the Dance (I will admit THAT is not likely)
 
Gotta start with the student section. That needs to be behind the visitors bench like yesterday. It will upset some donors that like those seats but too bad.

And put some damn vendors in the stands so people, especially all the way down on the bottom of the bowl, can get a drink or hotdog without having to climb all the way up to the top, wait in line and miss some of the game.

The contests during the timeouts suck. The halftime shows are mostly non-existent. Put more ticket packages together for games that are more difficult for most people to attend (late starts on weeknights)

I could go on.

Barta just deferred to the big donors and balked at change, especially with the students. Goetz sounds like she wants to change it up. Let's hope she does.
I'm a broken record on this, but there needs to be a paradigm shift. Iowa needs a basketball game experience that is student centric. At this point, I wouldn't spend a single dime on renovating Carver. They could drop a $100M on that place and it would only be playing at the margins (i.e. easier to get an ice cream cone and take a piss).

Like I've said, do a bunch of research, including focus groups, with the sole objective being to understand the drivers of student attendance. Nearly every great college basketball environment is student centric. They make for the great atmosphere - get them there and everything else follows. In my opinion, students could not care less about "connecting" or not connecting with the coach. Or even who the coach is.

If the finding of the research is that location is the biggest barrier to student attendance, then figure out where you can shoehorn in a smaller facility that students will actually get to. If it is 6k-8k, so be it.
 
People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.

This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.

Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father.

Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.

Dude, a team only gets a couple out-of-bounds plays under their own hoop in the last 5 minutes of the game to score. Give the guy a break!

In all seriousness, great points and analysis.
 
Take out the Lute years and Mr. Davis’s 86-87 season…and the end results under Fran have been the same as everyone else the past 40+ years. I get your point, but I am just shrugging my shoulders. I look at Fran the same way at look Kirk. Both guys are soooooo close to maximizing what their programs could be and they refuse to take that next step. I don’t know if it is arrogance, stubbornness or good ole fashion complacency, but they refuse to do it and it is super frustrating.

Is it that both are not coaching to that ceiling at Iowa for each program or are they coaching to the ceiling/max that a coach can possible coach at a school like Iowa? It's a good question to ponder.
 

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