People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.
But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.
From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.
This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.
Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father.
Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.