A Fran Weakness Is Rearing It's Head Again

[Northside Hawk]

People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.

This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.

Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father.

Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.

 

[Hawkboys]

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

I was wondering about this same thing but from a little different angle after seeing IA outscored by PSU 18-8 in final 4 min. Is there a way to see how the Hawks have fared in the final 4-5 min of games over those 2 time-frames?

My memory just remembers all the made 3s or fouls on drives on D and all the confusion late in games on O. I'd just like to see if the #s really back that up.

 

[trj]

People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.

This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.

Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father

Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.

Take out the Lute years and Mr. Davis’s 86-87 season…and the end results under Fran have been the same as everyone else the past 40+ years. I get your point, but I am just shrugging my shoulders. I look at Fran the same way at look Kirk. Both guys are soooooo close to maximizing what their programs could be and they refuse to take that next step. I don’t know if it is arrogance, stubbornness or good ole fashion complacency, but they refuse to do it and it is super frustrating.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Kirk Offense
Fran Defense

 

[ajdwhs87]

You will notice that the years 2019-2023 are years we have POY level guys with Luka and the Murray boys. I am gonna say go to guys like that were more responsible for 19-20 in close games. Conner was a solid floor general but if those three guys were only Rebraca level that record wouldn't be 19-20.

 

[Larry Legend]

People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.

This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.

Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father.

Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.

Very detailed here, congrats, agree you need a floor general on the floor at crunch time. Ala, Tom Brady, Conner served that purpose, problem is his dad's philosophy is, chuck it up from the cheap seats if you are open and that means anyone, mind boggling. Especially when we usually are terrible on offensive rebounds. I stopped watching men's games for that very thing, it's like all they want to do is dribble around for 32 seconds and take a 25-footer falling away, if your last name is Clark, okay with that. Oh, I will give Perkins a pass on this, when he comes to play, that is man out there. Whoever the next coach is go get some of him, ala Easy Ed Horton.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Very detailed here, congrats, agree you need a floor general on the floor at crunch time. Ala, Tom Brady, Conner served that purpose, problem is his dad's philosophy is, chuck it up from the cheap seats if you are open and that means anyone, mind boggling. Especially when we usually are terrible on offensive rebounds. I stopped watching men's games for that very thing, it's like all they want to do is dribble around for 32 seconds and take a 25-footer falling away, if your last name is Clark, okay with that. Oh, I will give Perkins a pass on this, when he comes to play, that is man out there. Whoever the next coach is go get some of him, ala Easy Ed Horton.

Perkins is a pit bull, the type,that you see on teams that advance deep in the NCAA'S. I wish we had three or four more like him.

 

[Northside Hawk]

You will notice that the years 2019-2023 are years we have POY level guys with Luka and the Murray boys. I am gonna say go to guys like that were more responsible for 19-20 in close games. Conner was a solid floor general but if those three guys were only Rebraca level that record wouldn't be 19-20.

I'll counter by saying that Connor and JBo helped make those guys the players they are. Luka bounces up and down between the T-Wolves and their G league team. Keegan is progressing well. Jury still out on Kris.

Too bad we had to deal with JBo's "defense" bit he was a hell of a shooter and facilitator.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Take out the Lute years and Mr. Davis’s 86-87 season…and the end results under Fran have been the same as everyone else the past 40+ years. I get your point, but I am just shrugging my shoulders. I look at Fran the same way at look Kirk. Both guys are soooooo close to maximizing what their programs could be and they refuse to take that next step. I don’t know if it is arrogance, stubbornness or good ole fashion complacency, but they refuse to do it and it is super frustrating.

It's plausible that Fran's refusal, certainly backed up by the administration, to recruit ultra athletic but potential bad character players has kept us from making rhe next step. That's a trait of Fran's I've always admired and respected. He always recruits high character players.

With one exception we've always recruited fairly high character players, even Raveling's 1984 and 85 hauls. Lute and Davis too.

The one exception? Bruce Pearl (naturally) who was Davis' lead recruiter in the late eighties. Ray Thompson, Brian Garner, and Kevin Smith were not high character guys. Acie Earl was borderline. Curtis Cuthpert got into off the court trouble before he even had a chance to practice with the team and subsequently departed. . James Moses had several off the court issues before he grew up. Even Chris Street once got suspended (open container in vehicle and underage).

All of this culminated in the Deon Thomas fiasco. Fortunately for Davis, Pearl would soon take a head coaching position at Southern Indiana. I don't think the administration was going to tolerate Pearl much longer and it could have meant Davis' scalp instead. I vividly remember an ESPN game in 1990 or 91 where Dick Vitale, at the time the biggest name in college basketball, media, said on the air that Davis would soon take the open Virginia position.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I was wondering about this same thing but from a little different angle after seeing IA outscored by PSU 18-8 in final 4 min. Is there a way to see how the Hawks have fared in the final 4-5 min of games over those 2 time-frames?

My memory just remembers all the made 3s or fouls on drives on D and all the confusion late in games on O. I'd just like to see if the #s really back that up.

I keep coming back the the KenPom metric "luck". In Fran's thirteen full seasons here we've been negative nine times, basically neutral three more.

We're well in the negative again this year. To me this is bucking the possibility that it is strictly chance. Something else is in play here. I still say that Connor, with some help from JBo, was a stabilizing force in close games not only on the court but in the huddle as well.

Connor has to take some of the credit for poise in close games when he was here. In that aspect of the game he may be better than the old man right now. No way is he a better overall coach than Fran-the latter has been doing this for three decades plus. But Connor is certainly a potential coaching star in the making.

 

[suisu]

Good Grief!
After decades, this is still not a top level NCAA basketball team, average at best. Never has been under McCaffery. We have never played good defense, and we have suffered from nepotism. This is surely Mccaffery's last year in Iowa City. So, lets focus on hiring a good college level coach and forget this one more disappointing season. I feel sorry for the players.





















gG

 

[ajdwhs87]

Good Grief!
After decades, this is still not a top level NCAA basketball team, average at best. Never has been under McCaffery. We have never played good defense, and we have suffered from nepotism. This is surely Mccaffery's last year in Iowa City. So, lets focus on hiring a good college level coach and forget this one more disappointing season. I feel sorry for the players.





















gG

I do at times feel bad for the players. They deserve better. Better than average though but still you can more often see the potential not quite being reached. That second number posted earlier says quite a bit. Even with some players during that 19-23 stretch the close game record was still under .500 and the record in the tourneys which also should be close games is what it is. You can see the reason for the lower attendance and whatever apathy is creeping in. It is nearing the end of the Fran era and not on the rise so a bunch of people will start to check out.

 

[RobHowe]

It's not a Fran weakness, it's a program weakness as we've seen through the years. I covered the end of the Mr. Davis era and this is almost identical discussion to what was happening then.

Iowa is a football school. That program receives the bulk of support from donors and fans. In the grand scheme of things, the programs are comparable in success rate.

Were people falling over themselves to get the Iowa MBB coaching job the last two times it was open? I covered that as well. I know the answer.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Ahh yes, where would Franuary be without the realization that Fran completely sucks? Alford ain't coming back guys. Sorry, those glory days are over.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I do at times feel bad for the players. They deserve better. Better than average though but still you can more often see the potential not quite being reached. That second number posted earlier says quite a bit. Even with some players during that 19-23 stretch the close game record was still under .500 and the record in the tourneys which also should be close games is what it is. You can see the reason for the lower attendance and whatever apathy is creeping in. It is nearing the end of the Fran era and not on the rise so a bunch of people will start to check out.

They looked completely disconnected on offense the final ninety seconds vs Peen State. Almost like nobody wanted to challenge the defense, let alone take a shot.

Penn State said thank you very much and took the ball two possessions in a row.

We saw it time and again in the Gesell/Uthoff years. We havent just lost quality players the past three years, we've lost players with the "clutch gene" ice water in the veins. Somethings just not there

 

[trj]

It's not a Fran weakness, it's a program weakness as we've seen through the years. I covered the end of the Mr. Davis era and this is almost identical discussion to what was happening then.

Iowa is a football school. That program receives the bulk of support from donors and fans. In the grand scheme of things, the programs are comparable in success rate.

Were people falling over themselves to get the Iowa MBB coaching job the last two times it was open? I covered that as well. I know the answer.

I am a Fran supporter, but I would lying if I didn’t say that a part me feels like Fran has hit a ceiling here. IMO, that is different than the “reach the next level” stuff we had with Mr. Davis. The program needs to be re-energized and I do not have a magic answer for that. The renovations that are certainly coming to Carver…I have no idea if that will change anything. Devries or whoever, that potentially could take over… I have no idea if they can re-energize the program.

 

[trj]

It's plausible that Fran's refusal, certainly backed up by the administration, to recruit ultra athletic but potential bad character players has kept us from making rhe next step. That's a trait of Fran's I've always admired and respected. He always recruits high character players.

With one exception we've always recruited fairly high character players, even Raveling's 1984 and 85 hauls. Lute and Davis too.

The one exception? Bruce Pearl (naturally) who was Davis' lead recruiter in the late eighties. Ray Thompson, Brian Garner, and Kevin Smith were not high character guys. Acie Earl was borderline. Curtis Cuthpert got into off the court trouble before he even had a chance to practice with the team and subsequently departed. . James Moses had several off the court issues before he grew up. Even Chris Street once got suspended (open container in vehicle and underage).

All of this culminated in the Deon Thomas fiasco. Fortunately for Davis, Pearl would soon take a head coaching position at Southern Indiana. I don't think the administration was going to tolerate Pearl much longer and it could have meant Davis' scalp instead. I vividly remember an ESPN game in 1990 or 91 where Dick Vitale, at the time the biggest name in college basketball, media, said on the air that Davis would soon take the open Virginia position.

Mr. Davis and Fran are/were both great at developing players and maximizing their talent. IMO, that is Fran’s best attribute as a coach. I am just not sure where the development of players and building a culture matters in the current landscape of college athletics. It just feels like now you need ready made dudes.

As far as the “Iowa we do things the right way” or the “we bring in high character guys” all that kind of talk I just stay away from. I stay away from it for a multitude of reasons.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

It's not a Fran weakness, it's a program weakness as we've seen through the years. I covered the end of the Mr. Davis era and this is almost identical discussion to what was happening then.

Iowa is a football school. That program receives the bulk of support from donors and fans. In the grand scheme of things, the programs are comparable in success rate.

Were people falling over themselves to get the Iowa MBB coaching job the last two times it was open? I covered that as well. I know the answer.

Mr. Davis was a big mistake. Competitive, his team's had a lot of heart, and he had some significant runs in the NCAAs.

Steve was a downgrade and an asshole.
Todd was a further downgrade and clueless.

Fran is an upgrade over Todd and probably a slight upgrade overall over Steve.

I think we had more to lose losing Mr. Davis than losing Fran though. I still don't think he should be on the chopping block (overall competitive record, has shown he can get them to the NCAA), but if he walked I would not feel bad. High floor, low ceiling coach.

 

[trj]

Mr. Davis was a big mistake. Competitive, his team's had a lot of heart, and he had some significant runs in the NCAAs.

Steve was a downgrade and asshole.
Todd was a further downgrade and clueless

Fran is an upgrade over Todd and probably a slight upgrade overall over Steve.

I think we had more to lose losing Mr. Davis than losing Fran though. I still don't think he should be on the chopping block (overall competitive record, has shown he can get them to the NCAA), but if he walked I would not feel bad. High floor, low ceiling coach.

Was it a mistake? Or are you doing the hindsight thing, given how the Alford era played out?

 

[STILLBUSTER]

People have commented recently that for an Iowa alum and longtime Hawkeye fan that I sure seem to be lukewarm on Fran. I've mentioned his temper, his table kicking, his chair slamming, his referee chasing, his technicals, but fact of the matter is I would tolerate all of that more if Fran won close games more often. In fact I probably would consider him somewhere between a folk hero and a rock star.

But alas, a major issue in Fran's early years and Gesell/Woodbury/Jok years is rearing its ugly head again. If a game is six points or fewer we have better than a two in three chance of losing. I will focus on two periods for a reason I will mention in a minute. The first is Fran's first eight seasons piggybacked with this year. The second is 2019-23.

From 2011-18 our record in these games was 19-49 (.279) That's hard to comprehend, and speaks volumes about Fran's bench coaching. It explains how we finished in the bottom 10% in nation in the KenPom metric "luck" four of the first eight years Fran was here. It also explains how we settled for the NIT in some years that we probably deserved NCAA, and got the dreaded 7-10 seed when we did make the dance. Heck, improve that record by a dozen games and while it still wouldn't be .500, it might improve BTT seeds and NCAA seeds.

This year we are 1-2 in such games, not a huge sample size, but are clearly sliding down another ugly trend. In the past two weeks I have seen us kick away three winnable games because we couldn't execute at all when it counted most. First it was Maryland and the inability to contain Jahmir Young late. Then Indiana where all Josh Dix has to do is hang onto a rebound and we basically win. Finally last night at Penn State on back to back critical late possessions we look totally discombobulated on offense and don't even get off a shot.

Which brings us to 2019-23, when we were a much more respectable 19-20 in games six points or fewer or basically a coin flip. Guess who was on our team those years? None other than our coach on the floor Connor McCaffery. You bet ge made a difference-look at how many critical plays he made in crunch time. In fact one could argue that he may have been the one leading the discussion in some of those late game timeouts, that he may have had better suggestions than his own father.

Just something to ponder when you wonder why we are NIT bound this year instead of NCAA. Or why I ridiculed people who criticized Connor. More often than not, our execution in crunch time of close games has reverted back to old ways.

Great deep dive ....
After all that, all I can say (have been saying) is, it's gonna be a challenge for this team to make the NIT!