A Computer Simulated the 2012 CFB Season 50,000 times
- Thread starter JonDMiller
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Scorpio79
Guest
I agree with teh computer: 7-5.
ChuckD4735
Well-Known Member
LOL...they rated ISU's offense at 16! Credibility lost.
HawkeyeHypnosis
Well-Known Member
Pretty much what everyone has us at. Some with one win more. I don't disagree but we have a chance to do very well if this team can put it together.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I don't think he's big enough to shoulder a large number of carries, if he even gets to the point where he can stay in there enough in pass protection. What ARob & Wegher did in that area in 2009 was pretty amazing.
bb4hawks
Well-Known Member
And the opportunity to see him practice like one time!!!
BLKNGOLD48
Well-Known Member
HaHa, no kidding.
Garmon is a bust. Wasted scholarship.
Actually, I am guessing that Garmon makes a contribution to this team at some point this season because of his speed and playmaking ability I think it will be hard to keep him off of the field. Wegher wasn't big his freshman year. I think too much is being made of the fact he needs to add some weight. They aren't going to ask any running back to carry the ball 30 times a game like they did to Coker last year. I imagine Bullock will play this year at about 190 pounds. Canzeri is probably between 170-180 pounds.
Actually, I am guessing that Garmon makes a contribution to this team at some point this season because of his speed and playmaking ability I think it will be hard to keep him off of the field. Wegher wasn't big his freshman year. I think too much is being made of the fact he needs to add some weight. They aren't going to ask any running back to carry the ball 30 times a game like they did to Coker last year. I imagine Bullock will play this year at about 190 pounds. Canzeri is probably between 170-180 pounds.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Wegher and Garmon weighing the same doesnt = same results. Wegher was much shorter...better leverage in blocking game than a 6-1/190 guy.
We just need games
BLKNGOLD48
Well-Known Member
Wegher and Garmon weighing the same doesnt = same results. Wegher was much shorter...better leverage in blocking game than a 6-1/190 guy.
We just need games
I'll wait to see how they actually play before I write them off. Our line play will be a big factor in this as well. I'm more concerned with our DL than RB's at this point.
DwayneTwill
Well-Known Member
Gaagkkk! Why is it talking?!? Make it stop!
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
The one thing about computer simulations is they don't take into account momentum. Momentum, especially in college sports, is such a huge factor. It can't be accounted for, especially in the beginning of the year, but there's no denying it's impact on results.
For example, there's no way we win that 2009 game at MSU if we hadn't already won our first 7 games and had momentum on our side.
On the flip side, when you don't have momentum or you lose it after an extended layoff, it's very damaging as well. For example, the 2002 team had no business losing to USC by 3 touchdowns. Had that game been played the week after we destroyed Minnesota to finish 8-0 in conference, there's no way the result is the same.
What I'm getting at here is that I think, based on the schedule, Iowa has a great chance to build some early momentum before the real meat of the schedule hits starting with a road game at MSU. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could be going to East Lansing with a 5-0 record. If (and it's a big "if", I know, but the schedule the first 5 games is so ridiculously soft and every game, save the 1st one in Chicago, is at home) we can go there 5-0, we have a much better chance to steal that game, based on momentum, than if we went in there at, say, 3-2.
The computers, obviously, don't take that into account and that's why I don't put a lot of stock into them.
For example, there's no way we win that 2009 game at MSU if we hadn't already won our first 7 games and had momentum on our side.
On the flip side, when you don't have momentum or you lose it after an extended layoff, it's very damaging as well. For example, the 2002 team had no business losing to USC by 3 touchdowns. Had that game been played the week after we destroyed Minnesota to finish 8-0 in conference, there's no way the result is the same.
What I'm getting at here is that I think, based on the schedule, Iowa has a great chance to build some early momentum before the real meat of the schedule hits starting with a road game at MSU. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we could be going to East Lansing with a 5-0 record. If (and it's a big "if", I know, but the schedule the first 5 games is so ridiculously soft and every game, save the 1st one in Chicago, is at home) we can go there 5-0, we have a much better chance to steal that game, based on momentum, than if we went in there at, say, 3-2.
The computers, obviously, don't take that into account and that's why I don't put a lot of stock into them.
MisterLucky
Well-Known Member
So, assuming the computer is right, how's this going to sit with Hawkeye fans? I know a lot of expectations are low this year, but shouldn't we be expecting more from a seasoned coach like Ferentz? Or, should we be accepting of the fact that the best we can do is 7-5 and fourth in our division?
I really don't see a 7-5 season, we just have a too easy of schedual. My realistic losses are too NEB and michigan, and losses/ that could go.either way are Iowa st. And michigan st.
If we go 7-5 that means we wont start 5-0 (which I think we will) and losses to either or all Minn. NW. And or Indiana. Im sorry I just dont think that will happen. We do have talent on this team. 9-3 or 8-4.
If we go 7-5 that means we wont start 5-0 (which I think we will) and losses to either or all Minn. NW. And or Indiana. Im sorry I just dont think that will happen. We do have talent on this team. 9-3 or 8-4.
Do the oddsmakers usually agree with the computer?
I will guess right now that Iowa will be favored in all 7 home games,along with the NIU game. They probably will be favored at IU. Now, maybe they lose to Purdue, or PSU, but on paper, Iowa should win 8,minimum,barring key injury.
Is the over under in Vegas at 7.5? I would take the over.
I will guess right now that Iowa will be favored in all 7 home games,along with the NIU game. They probably will be favored at IU. Now, maybe they lose to Purdue, or PSU, but on paper, Iowa should win 8,minimum,barring key injury.
Is the over under in Vegas at 7.5? I would take the over.
