A #1 seed will go down in the next 5 years

R

Rawkhawk73

Banned
With the tourney moving to 68 teams, the 4 play in games will now have what would have been the 4 #16 teams and the 4 #15 seeds under the old format playing to see who gets the 4 #16 seeds under the new format.

With the history of #15 seeds knocking off #2 seeds and several others coming close, I've got to believe that a #1 seed will have a greater chance of going down now.
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
With the tourney moving to 68 teams, the 4 play in games will now have what would have been the 4 #16 teams and the 4 #15 seeds under the old format playing to see who gets the 4 #16 seeds under the new format.

With the history of #15 seeds knocking off #2 seeds and several others coming close, I've got to believe that a #1 seed will have a greater chance of going down now.
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Wouldn't it be the 4 #16 seeds against 4 #17 seeds? The 15 seed will still play the #2 in the 1st round.
 
Doubtful, but more possible now since 4 teams will come in with a game under their belts already...but I still don't know about it happening anytime THAT soon...unless they slip a major conference bubble team into that slot and they go into it with no fear of playing an elite team since they face those types of teams in conference.
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
With the tourney moving to 68 teams, the 4 play in games will now have what would have been the 4 #16 teams and the 4 #15 seeds under the old format playing to see who gets the 4 #16 seeds under the new format.

With the history of #15 seeds knocking off #2 seeds and several others coming close, I've got to believe that a #1 seed will have a greater chance of going down now.
Click to expand...

The fact that the #1 seeds are getting weaker, it seems, would be the primary factor.
 
Cyclones17 said:
doubtful
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Great analysis you provide with your statement....bravo.

And you're flat out wrong. Take Robert Morris, for example. In this year's tourney, they were a #15 seed. In the expanded tourney, they would be in one of the play in games. What will happen is that everyone from about seed #12-#13 will slide up and it will make room for more major/mid-major bubble teams at the #12/#13 level.
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
Great analysis you provide with your statement....bravo.

And you're flat out wrong. Take Robert Morris, for example. In this year's tourney, they were a #15 seed. In the expanded tourney, they would be in one of the play in games. What will happen is that everyone from about seed #12-#13 will slide up and it will make room for more major/mid-major bubble teams at the #12/#13 level.
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But they won't be in the play in game. They would still play the #2 seed.
 
GO4ROZS said:
But they won't be in the play in game. They would still play the #2 seed.
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No, the teams that were the 15 seeds this year would have been playing in the play in game to be the 16 seed. The major bubble teams that were left out would now be like 11/12 seeds and the teams below that would be pushed down a slot.
 
A 15 has upset a 2 twice in the history of the tourney. A 1 seed has never been upset. Yeah, gonna go with not gonna happen.
 
GO4ROZS said:
But they won't be in the play in game. They would still play the #2 seed.
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#15 will still play #2, that's correct.

But the teams seeded 15-16 in this year's bracket will be bumped down to the 16-17 game because the new teams added to get to 68 will be higher seeded at-large teams. The bottom 8 is still the bottom 8 - the teams are the same.

Unless of course the NCAA does the smart thing and fill the play-in games with the lowest at-large teams, with the winners moving on to be 11/12 seeds.
 
rodg12 said:
A 15 has upset a 2 twice in the history of the tourney. A 1 seed has never been upset. Yeah, gonna go with not gonna happen.
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The only way it happens is if the "first four out" and the "last four in" are in the play-in game. It's still not likely, but Illinois would have had a much better chance to knock off Syracuse in the first round than some tiny school that no one has heard of.
 
If they make all automatic qualifiers play the playin game...its ********. Infact NO team that automatically quailfies should have to "playin", they earned their way into the tournament already. Put these "bubble" teams into the play in games.
 
#15 seeds have four wins in the 26 years since the tournament last expanded:

hampton over iowa state
richmond over syracuse
coppin state over south carolina
santa clara over arizona

i agree that this expansion makes it slightly more likely that a 16 will win... instead of being mediocre minor programs that somehow won their conference tourneys (those teams will now be 17s), 16s will be minor programs that actually had good years.

as to the other point, i bet the ncaa will forbid networks from referring to the 16/17 games as play-in games. these games will be officially referred to as part of the tournament and treated as such. i actually think it's a decent deal for these teams-- rather than just being sacrificial lambs to a #1, they get a chance to play a competitive game on national tv. seems like a fair trade-off to me.
 
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