JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I will put mine down here from today's article...post yours and we will revisit in November:
I’ve had my 2014 Iowa football game by game predictions mostly in place for the last month, but I’ve come close to changing my mind on a few games…and I really won’t know if I will do that until I finish this exercise and/or the Miller & Deace Podcast. (Well, I am finalizing this item after I did the podcast, which you can hear at these links: PART ONE & PART TWO)
Before we go forward, I like to look back. I’ve been making these predictions for 14 years. I’ve had my share of hits and misses. I consider a HIT to be a prediction within one game of the regular season win/loss record. Anything other than that is a miss.
2013 Game By Game Prediction: 6-6 (off by two, 8-4)
2012 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by four, 4-8)
2011 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by one, 7-5)
2010 Game by Game Prediction: 12-0 (off by five, 7-5)
2009 Game by Game Prediction: 10-2 (direct hit)
Here are my predictions for earlier seasons, links not included as they are to premium articles I wrote for Scout.com or Rivals.com, or as published in Hawkeye Nation Magazine:
2008: 8-4 (direct hit)
2007: 9-3 (off by three, 6-6)
2006: 11-1 (off by five, 6-6)
2005: 9-2 (off by two, 7-4)
2004: 8-3 (off by one, 9-2)
2003: 8-4 (off by one, 9-3)
2002: 8-4 (off by three, 11-1)
2001: 7-4 (off by one, 6-5)
It’s a good thing I am not a gambler and I need another HIT this year to get back to .500. So, here it goes…
Northern Iowa: This is going to be a very salty opponent for Iowa. Iowa should never lose to Northern Iowa or any team from the FCS and this year is no different, but if this game is something like 24-20, it wouldn’t shock me. UNI’s offense is dangerous and they return experience at quarterback, running back, they boast All Americans on the offensive line and they are used to the big stage. I think they are the second best team in the state of Iowa in 2014. IOWA 31, UNI 13.
Ball State: This isn’t last decade’s Ball State. They have done a few things since then and went to a bowl game. They lost their star quarterback and it might be too much to ask of the ‘new guy’ to come into Kinnick and answer the bell…more than likely, he’ll get his bell rung. IOWA: 38, Ball State 17
Iowa State: Like last year, Iowa will have had two games prior to its instate rivalry game. Like last year, Iowa is going to own the line of scrimmage on both sides and deliver a TKO by the third quarter. A case could be made that Iowa State is the weakest team on Iowa’s schedule. That’s not smack talk; look at the schedule and give me another. It would at least be debatable. IOWA: 34, Iowa State 20.
at Pittsburgh: Things get a bit tougher here. Iowa hits the road for the first time all year but they take a veteran quarterback on the road this year. Jake Rudock picked up several road wins last year, including in Memorial Stadium in the regular season finale. This is another team who will be breaking in a new quarterback. Iowa has weakness in the secondary, at least from this viewpoint at this time of the year. Will Pitt have the horses to exploit it? You have to pack a defense to win on the road and I think Iowa’s defensive line with an aggressive blitz attack can get the job done. I think Iowa is the better team and Deace thinks Iowa is better at every position. This was one game I went back and forth on for a long time, but wound up going with IOWA 21, Pitt 17.
at Purdue: This is not a good team and Iowa beat the Boilermakers last year in West Lafayette. Jordan Canzeri had a nice breakout performance in that one and I think the Hawkeyes will get the job done again. IOWA 30, Purdue 10
BYE
Indiana: This will be Homecoming for Iowa and the Hoosiers are not a team to sleep on. They are not great but they are one of the teams on Iowa’s slate who can attack the Hawkeyes where they hurt, and that is the back four. I still think Iowa has too much muscle at home in this one. IOWA 27, Indiana 17.
NOTE: Both Deace and I have Iowa starting at 6-0…that’s a Top 15 ranking, possibly Top Ten if they do it.
at Maryland: Maryland returns a TON and they had some injuries last year which could pay off this year in terms of the experience some young players picked up. MARYLAND 24, Iowa 20. (Deace also has Iowa losing this game)
BYE
Northwestern: This is the start of Hate Month, as some (over at Black Heart Gold Pants) have already called it. Ending the year with five games against border rivals. First up is Northwestern and while I think they could bounce back this year, I believe Iowa will get the best of them in Kinnick. IOWA 20, Northwestern 17.
at Minnesota: The Hawkeyes detestacled Minnesota last year. The Iowa program is the model for Jerry Kill and his Minnesota program. I can’t help but think the Gophers are worse on defense this year than last and I just don’t think the Gophers can hang with Iowa’s stuff. IOWA 27, Minnesota 20
at Illinois: It’s Illinois, so this one should be a businesslike performance. Not a lot of glitz, just power. IOWA 24, Illinois 0. (Deace thinks this one has trap game written all over it and calls for an Illinois upset of Iowa)
Wisconsin: The Badgers lose so much on defense and will begin the year less than confident at quarterback. I sure wish Iowa played them early in the year because by this time, the Badgers may have things put back together. Wisconsin stole Iowa’s mojo in November of 2010 and Iowa is going to have to take it back. Until they do, I am slightly favoring Wisconsin, as much as I hate doing that (NOTE: This is the reverse jinx, as I have been undervaluing Wisconsin football and basketball for the last decade): WISCONSIN 20, Iowa 17. (Deace has Iowa winning this one)
Nebraska: The Hawkeyes win two in a row in the Heroes Series and Husker fans once again call for Bo Pelini’s job. IOWA 17, Nebraska 13.
Add those up and it’s 10-2/6-2 for Iowa. I don’t know if 6-2 will be enough to make it to the Big Ten title game because I’ve yet to project Wisconsin’s schedule. At first blush, I could see the Badgers 6-2 at worst. Roadies at Rutgers and Purdue, with Nebraska and Maryland at home. Their Big Ten slate is just as advantageous as Iowa’s. Deace thinks Wisconsin goes 6-2 and given his thought that Iowa beats Wisconsin, he has Iowa in the Big Ten title game.
This Iowa team appears to be a good one, but it feels like an 8-4 team whose schedule can get them to play one or two games above that. In the end, I am more comfortable with 9-3 than I am at 10-2. Then again, last year I was more comfortable going 5-7 than 6-6.
I’ve talked a few times about Iowa’s thin secondary, but their lack of proven depth along the offensive line is another concern I have. I believe the running game should be solid to good and the passing game has a chance to be dynamic for a Kirk Ferentz Iowa team. Special Teams specialists might be what holds this back from being a special season.
Would 8-4 be a disappointment? With this schedule, it might feel like it. The Big Ten West just isn’t a super strong division this year. Wisconsin and Nebraska are ripe for the taking and nobody else puts a scare into you.
10-2/6-2 in my scenario probably gets Iowa to the Cap One, Orange (unlikely unless it lost in B1G Title game that followed an 11-1 regular season) or Holiday Bowls. Predicting Iowa’s bowl destination will be especially tough this year, even once we get to November as the league will have new bowl selection process and it’s highly subjective.
I’ve had my 2014 Iowa football game by game predictions mostly in place for the last month, but I’ve come close to changing my mind on a few games…and I really won’t know if I will do that until I finish this exercise and/or the Miller & Deace Podcast. (Well, I am finalizing this item after I did the podcast, which you can hear at these links: PART ONE & PART TWO)
Before we go forward, I like to look back. I’ve been making these predictions for 14 years. I’ve had my share of hits and misses. I consider a HIT to be a prediction within one game of the regular season win/loss record. Anything other than that is a miss.
2013 Game By Game Prediction: 6-6 (off by two, 8-4)
2012 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by four, 4-8)
2011 Game by Game Prediction: 8-4 (off by one, 7-5)
2010 Game by Game Prediction: 12-0 (off by five, 7-5)
2009 Game by Game Prediction: 10-2 (direct hit)
Here are my predictions for earlier seasons, links not included as they are to premium articles I wrote for Scout.com or Rivals.com, or as published in Hawkeye Nation Magazine:
2008: 8-4 (direct hit)
2007: 9-3 (off by three, 6-6)
2006: 11-1 (off by five, 6-6)
2005: 9-2 (off by two, 7-4)
2004: 8-3 (off by one, 9-2)
2003: 8-4 (off by one, 9-3)
2002: 8-4 (off by three, 11-1)
2001: 7-4 (off by one, 6-5)
It’s a good thing I am not a gambler and I need another HIT this year to get back to .500. So, here it goes…
Northern Iowa: This is going to be a very salty opponent for Iowa. Iowa should never lose to Northern Iowa or any team from the FCS and this year is no different, but if this game is something like 24-20, it wouldn’t shock me. UNI’s offense is dangerous and they return experience at quarterback, running back, they boast All Americans on the offensive line and they are used to the big stage. I think they are the second best team in the state of Iowa in 2014. IOWA 31, UNI 13.
Ball State: This isn’t last decade’s Ball State. They have done a few things since then and went to a bowl game. They lost their star quarterback and it might be too much to ask of the ‘new guy’ to come into Kinnick and answer the bell…more than likely, he’ll get his bell rung. IOWA: 38, Ball State 17
Iowa State: Like last year, Iowa will have had two games prior to its instate rivalry game. Like last year, Iowa is going to own the line of scrimmage on both sides and deliver a TKO by the third quarter. A case could be made that Iowa State is the weakest team on Iowa’s schedule. That’s not smack talk; look at the schedule and give me another. It would at least be debatable. IOWA: 34, Iowa State 20.
at Pittsburgh: Things get a bit tougher here. Iowa hits the road for the first time all year but they take a veteran quarterback on the road this year. Jake Rudock picked up several road wins last year, including in Memorial Stadium in the regular season finale. This is another team who will be breaking in a new quarterback. Iowa has weakness in the secondary, at least from this viewpoint at this time of the year. Will Pitt have the horses to exploit it? You have to pack a defense to win on the road and I think Iowa’s defensive line with an aggressive blitz attack can get the job done. I think Iowa is the better team and Deace thinks Iowa is better at every position. This was one game I went back and forth on for a long time, but wound up going with IOWA 21, Pitt 17.
at Purdue: This is not a good team and Iowa beat the Boilermakers last year in West Lafayette. Jordan Canzeri had a nice breakout performance in that one and I think the Hawkeyes will get the job done again. IOWA 30, Purdue 10
BYE
Indiana: This will be Homecoming for Iowa and the Hoosiers are not a team to sleep on. They are not great but they are one of the teams on Iowa’s slate who can attack the Hawkeyes where they hurt, and that is the back four. I still think Iowa has too much muscle at home in this one. IOWA 27, Indiana 17.
NOTE: Both Deace and I have Iowa starting at 6-0…that’s a Top 15 ranking, possibly Top Ten if they do it.
at Maryland: Maryland returns a TON and they had some injuries last year which could pay off this year in terms of the experience some young players picked up. MARYLAND 24, Iowa 20. (Deace also has Iowa losing this game)
BYE
Northwestern: This is the start of Hate Month, as some (over at Black Heart Gold Pants) have already called it. Ending the year with five games against border rivals. First up is Northwestern and while I think they could bounce back this year, I believe Iowa will get the best of them in Kinnick. IOWA 20, Northwestern 17.
at Minnesota: The Hawkeyes detestacled Minnesota last year. The Iowa program is the model for Jerry Kill and his Minnesota program. I can’t help but think the Gophers are worse on defense this year than last and I just don’t think the Gophers can hang with Iowa’s stuff. IOWA 27, Minnesota 20
at Illinois: It’s Illinois, so this one should be a businesslike performance. Not a lot of glitz, just power. IOWA 24, Illinois 0. (Deace thinks this one has trap game written all over it and calls for an Illinois upset of Iowa)
Wisconsin: The Badgers lose so much on defense and will begin the year less than confident at quarterback. I sure wish Iowa played them early in the year because by this time, the Badgers may have things put back together. Wisconsin stole Iowa’s mojo in November of 2010 and Iowa is going to have to take it back. Until they do, I am slightly favoring Wisconsin, as much as I hate doing that (NOTE: This is the reverse jinx, as I have been undervaluing Wisconsin football and basketball for the last decade): WISCONSIN 20, Iowa 17. (Deace has Iowa winning this one)
Nebraska: The Hawkeyes win two in a row in the Heroes Series and Husker fans once again call for Bo Pelini’s job. IOWA 17, Nebraska 13.
Add those up and it’s 10-2/6-2 for Iowa. I don’t know if 6-2 will be enough to make it to the Big Ten title game because I’ve yet to project Wisconsin’s schedule. At first blush, I could see the Badgers 6-2 at worst. Roadies at Rutgers and Purdue, with Nebraska and Maryland at home. Their Big Ten slate is just as advantageous as Iowa’s. Deace thinks Wisconsin goes 6-2 and given his thought that Iowa beats Wisconsin, he has Iowa in the Big Ten title game.
This Iowa team appears to be a good one, but it feels like an 8-4 team whose schedule can get them to play one or two games above that. In the end, I am more comfortable with 9-3 than I am at 10-2. Then again, last year I was more comfortable going 5-7 than 6-6.
I’ve talked a few times about Iowa’s thin secondary, but their lack of proven depth along the offensive line is another concern I have. I believe the running game should be solid to good and the passing game has a chance to be dynamic for a Kirk Ferentz Iowa team. Special Teams specialists might be what holds this back from being a special season.
Would 8-4 be a disappointment? With this schedule, it might feel like it. The Big Ten West just isn’t a super strong division this year. Wisconsin and Nebraska are ripe for the taking and nobody else puts a scare into you.
10-2/6-2 in my scenario probably gets Iowa to the Cap One, Orange (unlikely unless it lost in B1G Title game that followed an 11-1 regular season) or Holiday Bowls. Predicting Iowa’s bowl destination will be especially tough this year, even once we get to November as the league will have new bowl selection process and it’s highly subjective.
