#1 Iowa vs #2 Oklahoma State Breakdown

pin2win

pin2win

@hagertony
#1 University of Iowa vs. #2 Oklahoma State University

http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-wrestl/spec-rel/live-updates.html

#1 University of Iowa vs. #2 Oklahoma State University
125 - Matt McDonough (I) vs. Jon Morrison (OSU)
133 - Tony Ramos (I) vs. Jordan Oliver (OSU)
141 - Montell Marion (I) vs. Josh Kindig (OSU)
149 - Mark Ballweg (I) or Mike Kelly (I) vs. Jamal Parks (OSU)
157 - Nick Moore (I) vs. Albert White (OSU)
165 - Mike Evans (I) vs. Dallas Bailey (OSU)
174 - Ethen Lofthouse (I) vs. Chris Perry (OSU)
184 - Jeremy Fahler (I) or Vinnie Wagner (I) vs. Chris McNeil (OSU)
197 - Grant Gambrall (I) or Tomas Lira (I) vs. Blake Rosholt (OSU) or Cayle Byers (OSU)
Hwt. - Bobby Telford (I) vs. Alan Gelogaev (OSU)


Five of Iowa's probable starters have never lost a match inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They include Tony Ramos (11-0), Dylan Carew (2-0), Mike Evans (5-0), Grant Gambrall (11-0) and Bobby Telford (5-0) This little fun fact but as you will see in my breakdown it won't matter a whole lot Saturday.


125 - Matt McDonough (I) vs. Jon Morrison (OSU)

MCD is a stud and we have been spoiled to think MCD will get a major, tech or fall every time he steps on the mat. We as fans need to not put so much pressure on this kid I feel like he can sense it which isn't good. This is around the time MCD shines and gets his motor runnnnning. This match is hopefully where we start for the night as the hawks want to start with their best and Oky state will probably be happy ending with the russian. MCD has to set the tone and its a question of wether he is going to major Morrison or pin him and lets hope to god he gets the fall because the hawks are going to need it to get to 900 dual victories! Prediction MCD by fall in 2nd period

Hawks- 6
Cowboys- 0

133 - Tony Ramos (I) vs. Jordan Oliver (OSU)

Ramos is a firecracker and I have a bad feeling he won't be able to have the spark to hang with Oliver. Oliver is a stud and Iowa would be thrilled to keep this to a DEC only. Oliver is a smart wrestler and will use Tony's quickness and aggressiveness to beat him. I know I know I know Tony hasn't been beaten in Carver but he just can't hang with this kid to think he has a shot at winning. If this match is in Oklahoma Oliver gets a major or a fall but I am going to give Tony the benefit of the doubt. I think the crowd keeps Tony from being majored but this one will get ugly if the crowd isn't behind him so lets hear you Saturday night!!!

Hawks- 6
Cowboys- 3

141 - Montell Marion (I) vs. Josh Kindig (OSU)

This is a better matchup now for the hawks then I though it would be earlier in the year. Kindig got schooled by Maple at Midlands and I hope Marion does it here too. Marion can get the hawks bonus points here if he shows up ready to wrestle. I do predict Marion getting a major here but I wouldn't be shocked if we see Marion flexing his muscles at the end of this match by getting a funky fall.

Hawks- 10
Cowboys- 3


149 - Mike Kelly (I) vs. Jamal Parks (OSU)

Kelly is up to the test against Parks. I was very pleased with the way Kelly wrestled at Midlands and it sucks I didn't get to watch the whole tournament due to getting married but guess thats more important! Hawks could give up bonus points here as there is going to be an extreme amount of pressure on Kelly. I think Park rolls here getting the cowboys a major.

Hawks- 10
Cowboys- 7

157 - Nick Moore (I) vs. Albert White (OSU)

Man I wish DSJ was wrestling here but I think Moore will put up a good fight against White. White is an up and down wrestler in my eyes and could possibly over look Moore. Moore I feel needs just a swiff kick in the rear when it comes to these big matches. I think the home town crowd keeps this one very close and could go either way. I predict Moore wins a CLOSE match and the crowd will go freaking nuts right before intermission!

Hawks- 13
Cowboys- 7

165 - Mike Evans (I) vs. Dallas Bailey (OSU)

Evans needs to get better on top and if he can't wear down Bailey on bottom he could find himself in trouble in this match. Its matches like these that I wish we didn't have a "half time" in wrestling because of the electricity. With that said Tom is gonna give a great talk to these gentlemen and pumps Evans up enough to finish the job. I predict Evans to find his way at home and wins a close one!


Hawks- 16
Cowboys- 7

174 - Ethen Lofthouse (I) vs. Chris Perry (OSU)

This match up intrigues me and I am really on the fence to what is going to happen. I do feel like Ethen is going to struggle with Perry throughout the match solely on the fact of size difference. Feel like I could write paragraphs upon paragraphs why I think each one would win so I am going to save some time here and get to the point. Ethen loses this match and hawks fans are pretty disappointed in the performance. Ethen to me is the favorite but don't think he wins in the end.

Hawks- 16
Cowboys- 10

184 - Vinnie Wagner (I) vs. Chris McNeil (OSU)

I'm not known for knowing a lot about these heavier weights and don't like breaking them down to be honest so not going to go into to depth here. Wagner wins a close match

Hawks- 19
Cowboys- 10

197 - Grant Gambrall (I) vs. Cayle Byers (OSU)

As stated above Grant is 11-0 at Carver but like Ramos I see him losing for the first time at home Saturday night. Byers is a stud and is my pick to with the NCAA's. God this sucks just thinking about Byers but won't dwell on what could of been. Grant does wrestle great at home but do think he will be close to giving up bonus points the whole match and with riding time in Byers favor gives up the major to make this dual exciting.

Hawks- 19
Cowboys- 14

Hwt. - Bobby Telford (I) vs. Alan Gelogaev (OSU)

Now its all up to Telford NOT to get pinned here by the dangerous and scary Gelogaev even his name is scary to me haha. Gelogaev is on a tear already this season and Bobby will get majored and possibly tech. God help us all if he gives up the fall but I really don't see it. Bobby is tough and deserves to be in the top 10 but Gelogaev is too much for him. Bob gives up the major and the hawks get the 900th dual win and keep the streak alive!!

Hawks- 19
Cowboys- 18

I will be in attendance giving live updates and hopefully some interviews to post on Sunday which wont' come later that night because I plan on sipping quite a few back at Brothers later on in the night. Feel free to criticize and question any of my predictions but please post some of your own BEFORE trolling mine. Thanks
 
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Excellent breakdown. My only concern pertains to Montell's match. I hope he can win by a major decision but the way he has been wrestling lately it wouldn't shock me to see him win by a regular decision. (hopefully he'll come out aggressive in the 1st period versus waiting until the 3rd)

Also hope that GG doesn't get beat by more then a maj decision. Still curious if GG plans to cut to 184 by the Big 10 tourney. Go HAWKS!
 
I see the meet breaking down this way:

125 - McD rolling and Morrison sucks. TF for McD.
133 - Oliver is great but so is Ramos. 5-3 Oliver.
141 - Kindig can't keep up with Marion's speed. Montell with something to prove after midlands. 8-1 Montell.
149 - Parks has been overrated his whole career but Kelly is a greenhorn. Parks wind 6-2.
157 - Nick Moore is good but no DSJ. Wish we had him but it won't matter. Moore 6-1.
165 - Evans beats the always mediocre Dallas Bailey. 10-4.
174 - Have a bad feeling Perry will kill Lofthouse. 9-4.
184 - Wagner has good energy but will lose 5-4.
197 - Byers too big and strong for Gambrall. 7-4.
HWT - Telford is good. Gelogaev is good. Best match of the night. Gelo 2-1.

14-18 OSU when I break the matches down and yet I think Iowa wins the meet. No way they beat us here. I'm not sure how to reconcile my gut vs my breakdown.
 
I think that someone will come out of nowhere to pick up a big win for the Hawks. My picks would be Kelly or Ramos to pick up the win. I could see Telford surprising everyone too. The last OSU dual I was at Ty Eustice pulled the upset. We a little Carver Hawkeye magic ;-)
 
Not contributing to the analysis but I was curious if anyone knew about the broadcast? Radio or tv? I'm assuming someone will post a live chat feed but I'd like to watch on tv if televised. Thanks!
 
pin2win said:
WildTurkey said:
G with a Major over Telford? No way...
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please post your thoughts on all the matchesand there was No way metcalf could be beat by caldwell
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First off congrats on getting married! (big mistake.... Ah just kidding....no but seriously)

Anyway way to bring up the Caldwell/Metcalf match. Really? Its your opinion and thats fine but what has Telford done this year for you to think he will be majored?? Is it because he is a freshman? A major is not going to happen. Maybe a pin but no major.

Oh and i did post my thoughts on all the matches. Try reading the very first post in the "Lets talk some Iowa/Osu wrestling" thread.
 
I also dont believe Parks will major Kelly but i could be wrong here. Have you watched Parks wrestle this year? He likes to keep it close.

Byers is not going to win nationals either. He is not even the best 197 pounder on his own team.
 
Oliver is 9-0 with 9 pins, all but one in the first period. he is a complete buzzsaw right now but if tony can with stand the initial onslaught his lungs may be the difference.
 
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Your point is very well taken CR, but Oliver will need to stick him in the first. CHA literally sucks the breath out of you, Brands has mentioned it. The atmosphere is thick, the crowd will be loud, and with the improved calling on stalls, Oliver will get his wake up call.

Ramos will keep it within three takedowns in the first, then the magic happens!
 
125 - Big match for the Hawks here as they need to find a way to score some bonus points in this dual and this is one of there better chances with McD coming on now. Morrison is a talented wrestler and could easily keep this to a regular decision and a tight match but I think that Matt knows what's at stake and will be looking to put points on the board.

McD major 4-0 Iowa

133 - Ramos has been really good this year (with exception of Carter slowing him down in the MIdlands finals) and it's not a stretch to think that he could be in the national finals come March. Too bad that he is wrestling Jordan Oliver. Oliver is the best pound for pound wrestler in the country IMHO. I hope that Tony keeps the match close and gives himself a shot at the end but I just don't see it.

Oliver dec 4-3 Iowa

141 - Kindig is a talented wrestler but has yet to really put it all together consistently. Marion has not been real sharp so far this year but has been very workmanlike and only has the 1 loss to Maple. Marion should win this match and needs to try to push the pace and go for bonus points.

Marion dec 7-3 Iowa

149 - Parks has been discussed at great length on every board in the country I think. Ultra talented but doesn't create seperation or score bonus points. Kelly is a tough kid who Hawk fans have been waiting for and likes to push the action. If Kelly can keep ths close early on this match could get very interesting as Kelly is a grinder/brawler with a big motor. You have to like Parks experience here though.

Parks dec 7-6 Iowa

157 - With St John not expected to wrestle this becomes a very big swing match. I would have given bonus to DSJ but Moore and White should be a toss up. Nick is a very solid wrestler but has the tendency to put himself in danger from time to time. White has a lot of talent but has been a dissapointment at the college level. Can White catch Moore on his mistakes or will Moore grind out a tough win in front of the rowdy home crowd?

Moore dec 10-6

165 - Evans started the year on fire with weaker competition but has come back to earth a little as the opponents have stepped up. He is very good on top and is good at finishing shots when he gets to the legs. He does struggle with creating angles and setting his shots up though. Bailey had a very good freshman campaign but is struggling this year. He is talented enough to pul this match off if he is "on" but Evans likes to entertain in front of the home crowd and I think his riding will be the difference.

Evans dec 13-6

174 - Lofthouse is a bit of an enigma to me but I've come to the realization that he is just a 6-12 type guy right now, nothing more, nothing less. Perry has been much better at 184 this year and was climbing the rankings fast and now drops down a weight here. I think that this will be a good match but if Perry has his weight under control I think he is too talented for Ethan.

Perry dec 13-9

184 - This becomes maybe the biggest swing match of the dual with 2 relatively unknowns compared to the rest of these loaded lineups. McNeil had his struggles at 174 and now has to go up a weight and into a hostile environment. Wagner is a 5th year senior who is finally getting his shot in the lineup and keeps improving. He placed at the Midlands and showed that he can hang with some good wrestlers. I really don't know who to take here but I'm going with Wangers size and stamina to grind it out.

Wagner 16-9

197 - Byers/Rosholt is an interesting decision for Coach Smith and he has 2 very good wrestlers to choose from. Byers has been a little dissapointing after the hype he received coming in and Rosholt keeps improving. The Hawks will go with returning AA Grant Gambrall up a weight. His first real competition at the new weight did not go so well at Midlands but he should make improvements with more time back on the mat and getting used to the big horses here. Grant is pretty slick and can get to the legs but I think he'll struggle with the bigger physical wrestlers.

Byers dec 16-12 Iowa

HWT - This should be one of the better matchups here and not very often do you look forward to a heavyweight match but this is one of them. Z has been lights out for the Cowboys since coming back at this weight this year and can put some big points up in a hurry. Telford unseated the defending big 10 champ just to make the lineup as a freshman and has been very solid for the Hawks. Telford has a VERY bright future ahead of him but I don't think that it starts Saturday night. He needs to stay smart here and not give up any big moves and hope to have a chance to win it late. If Telford can find a way to ride for a length of time his chances would go up.

Z dec 16-15 Iowa

A lot of these matches could go either way and I think that it will come down to bonus points. You could see bonus at 133,141, 165, 174, 197, or HWT and I wouldn't be real suprised. Just one mans predictions...
 
great prediction fuls believe we are close to being on a same page i am just expecting more fireworks

thanks as always for posting your thoughts instead of just posting a score
 
CRwrestling said:
Let's say they draw 165. And the meet comes down to 157, do we see St. John?
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If the match starts at 165, and 157 matters, you'll see StJohn... I have no doubt. Brands won't leave the streak in the hands of Moore. Supposedly DSJ is ok, but he's going to try to get another week of mileage out of resting him if possible. We need him for Nationals badly.
 
Is this on TV anywhere outside of the state of Iowa? I was hoping that it would at least be replayed on BTN but did not see it anywhere.
 
125#-McDonough
133#-Oliver
141#-Marion
149#-Parks
Now these are the wrestlers who should win. Anyone who follows Iowa Wrestling knows that the Hawks have twice as much gas in their tank than anyone they wrestle. They push and push and never let up. Oliver isn't going to be pushed by any wrestler he wrestles this year like he's going to be pushed by Ramos. If it's close after the first period, who knows? Same goes for Parks. Not too many majors,techfalls, or falls from him. He's just satisfied to win. I was impressed with Kelly. Lots of gas in his tank. If it"s close in the third period, I like Kelly. I used to watch White wrestle for NIACC junior college. If Moore doesn't do anything dumb, Moore should win. If Evans can't ride on top, I look for Bailey to win. Lofthouse can beat Perry. Just because Perry was ranked high at 184# doesn't mean a thing. Wagner should beat McNeil. McNeil is wrestling a weight higher and wasn't that good at 174# Gambrall. It's like everyone has given up on Gambrall. Went up a weight, not strong enough, but he's in every match. Rosholt will be wrestling because he"s better than Byers. Byers has had problems with his ankle. I believe Gambrall will win this match. The Russian. All you hear about is the Russian. Has he won a national championship? Nope. Should he beat Telford, yes. He's got experience. I like Telford. Really doesn't make any mistakes. Tough rider. Tough one to pick, but, if after the first period they are close, look out. Congratulations pin2win on getting married. Your summary of McDonough was really good. People are spoiled. If he doesn't win by a tech fall or fall then he must be sick or it's weight issues. Oh, I'm taking the Hawks by four.
 
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