ferentz4life
Well-Known Member
It is highly unlikely that all three will be right, which I will take as a sign that Iowa will finish above, not below, that mark.
Miller/Hardy/Kakert all pick 8-4
- Thread starter ferentz4life
- Start date
WinOneThisCentury
Well-Known Member
Miller, Hardy, Kakert...Morons. They have it wrong...this team will be better than last year...not so much on defense, but offensively they will be much better.
The schedule is favorable, and the Big Ten is no where near the level it was last year with OSU, Iowa, MSU, and Wisky. Hell, with Persa at the helm, NW was a tough out.
I think the stars align and we end up 10-2.
The schedule is favorable, and the Big Ten is no where near the level it was last year with OSU, Iowa, MSU, and Wisky. Hell, with Persa at the helm, NW was a tough out.
I think the stars align and we end up 10-2.
DesMoinesHawki
Well-Known Member
How far along were you in your 4th of July celebration when you posted this? Someone must have spiked your Hawkeye Kool-aid. While I like your positive thinking, I don't think there is any way this team escapes the season with only two losses. I think 9-3 at best, but 8-4 more of a reality, and 7-5 just as attainable. Iowa needs to show this season that it can finish games and not lose to teams it should handily defeat. Until that happens, I don't think we should chalk up any win beforehand.
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
Given the part I highlighted ... Iowa's ability to win those games, IMO, will largely be attributable to a quality running game that can grind down the opposition in the 4th quarter. Given the quality of Coker and Iowa's OL ... provided our O can remain adequately healthy, Iowa has EXACTLY the sort of O we need to just that. I think that against Tenn Tech, ISU, Pitt, LA-Monroe, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue the most likely scenario is for Iowa to end up going 6-1.
The above then leads us to the following games as being the particularly tough ones. Namely, the games against PSU, Northwestern, Michigan, MSU, and Nebraska. Now, folks might consider me an odd one here ... but I think that it is pretty fair to approximate EACH of the above games as being a 50-50 shot to be an Iowa W.
Given the above assumptions, you quickly converge to the conclusion that Iowa approximately has a 50% chance of going 9-3 or better. Furthermore, using the same approximation, going 9-3 and going 8-4 are equally probable .... and share the distinction of being the highest probability events.
While I'll grant you that not everyone necessarily shares my view concerning what comprises a good null-hypothesis. However, I don't believe that my null-hypothesis is necessarily all that inaccurate.
Uh huh, and then?
Then you weigh in all the pointers to this is a good year, things like Winonethiscentury, has said. What do you got??? 10-2 is very possible. You are right could go 8-4, could go 9-3, but if you look at the schedule and all, it could go 10-2. So 9-3 is medium bet, 10-2 is pry the best they will do and could end up at 8-4. I tend to be leaning toward the upper side of 9-3, maybe like a 9.68 -2.32 or so . As the summer goes, we will have to see what happens, but I am betting I will end up going up to 10-2.
homes
Well-Known Member
They are all over-compensating for last year's predictions. Turtle effect.
Homes hit the nail on the head. They are all licking their wounds from having been so optimistic a year ago, like a lot of us were. However, this is a new season and a new team. I don't see the coaching staff disappointing two years in a row. I believe 8-4 to be on the low end of reasonable with 10-2 on the high end. I lean more toward 9-3 and 10-2 than 8-4.
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
I personally believe that IF the squad can remain adequately healthy AND IF we get enough younger guys to "emerge" and play on a big-time level ... then I really like our chances to go 10-2. I think that the latter is pretty much a given ... however, when it comes to injuries, you never know ....
hawkeyescott
Well-Known Member
Im not saying Iowa will never again beat jNW, but I don't understand why everyone is so confident that we will beat them every year. I swear I was the only person who knew we were going to lose last year.
jNW will have a good offense this year....not sure if Iowa will have a great defense this year, have to give the advantage to jNW once again....hope I'm wrong.
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
I suspected that Iowa would lose to NW in '10 as well ... however, that was solely due to the fact that Nielsen was injured and Tarp's health had been rather shaky. As a result, we simply didn't have means to adequately cover Dunsmore or the NW's WRs who were running crossing patterns. It's bad enough that Persa had the legs to make something out of nothing ... it's quite another when his outlet guys were veritably ALWAYS open!
However, to my great surprise, despite the predictable problems that we'd have in coverage ... our Hawks were still in a position to win it. Heck, if Stanzi doesn't throw that INT ... Iowa wins that game ... no question. However, to Northwestern's great credit ... their D played okay (not great) and Persa play was nothing short of AMAZING!
I think that if you look at the match-ups in '11, even though Northwestern returns a ton on O, Iowa's back 7 on D should be exceptionally strong in coverage. That should negate, to an extent, what some Iowa fans perceive as Northwestern's greatest advantage over us. Furthermore, I like Iowa's chances on O against Northwestern's D. A healthy Iowa OL + a healthy Coker = a big head-ache to the Northwestern D.
Lastly, why shouldn't Iowa fans anticipate that an Iowa victory is a likely scenario. Since '08, although Northwestern has won each of the last 3 contests, Iowa has held leads in each of those games ... and the lead lasted until the 4th quarter in 2 of those contests. Furthermore, since '08, Northwestern has won 3 games by a combined margin of 16 points. Thus, it's not like Northwestern has been dominating Iowa to ANY extent.
I frankly believe that a strong running game, a D that continues to force NW to EARN all of its points, and fewer turnovers will prove to the KEY to Iowa finally defeating NW. Usually most of those areas haven't been a problem for the Hawks ... however, in recent years Iowa has just been contending with too much youth/inexperience at EITHER the QB or RB spot ... and that has led to too many untimely turnovers.
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
Would you care to elaborate upon those questions? Furthermore, precisely HOW do those questions end up translating to losses?
For example, between Iowa's new starters in the secondary and on the DL, one might believe that AT LEAST one of the two following situations will occur:
1. The youth in the secondary will lead to blown coverages ... and thus big plays and potentially "free" points to our opponents.
2. The lack of starting experience and/or "star-power" on the DL will lead us to struggle when it comes to getting pressure on the QB.
When you combine these "issues" with the fact that in EACH of Iowa's first 4 games we face off against teams that like to spread the field .... the immediate implications are that we'll either give up A LOT of yards through the air OR we'll be "soft" in the middle of the field (which makes us vulnerable to an interior running game).
However, when you break down those first 4 games ... you quickly realize that 2 of the 4 games are most likely victories (vs Tenn Tech and LA-Monroe). It's equally easy to recognize that ISU needs to find a new QB and needs to replace its two most consistent receivers (Franklin and Williams). ISU just graduated 2 of its starters on the interior line ... so I don't believe that it is automatic that ISU will be able to run at will against Iowa down the middle. Lastly, Pitt has a new coaching staff and will be implementing all-new schemes on both sides of the ball. Pitt also lost a lot of quality talent from the squad AND their new base-D will likely not match-up very well against Iowa's running game.
I honestly believe that IF the Hawks can remain adequately healthy and IF they can make it through their first 4 games unscathed .... then MANY of the questions on D will already have been answered. Furthermore, given the quality of Iowa's OL ... the O could potentially be hitting full steam right at the start of the conference play ... I'm not certain that we could ask for a better set-up.
I was very confident they would lose last year, even before the season started. This year I'm still leaning towards jNW, but that could obviously chnage after I see both teams play.
And yes, I understand that jNW is not a great team, that's why they are JUST Northwestern, they will always get beat by the good teams like OSU, UW, PSU, MSU...etc, but they always to seem to have our number....so frustrating.
