I realize the Big 10 is always tough...I was merely pointing out that Purdue and Michigan are going to be improved. And Nebraska is going to be tough to beat. Iowa could EASILY lose all 3 of those games. Not saying they will...but they could.
What happens if Coker goes down with an injury? What happens if no receivers step up and McNutt is forced to carry the receiving load? Will Vandenberg be able to carry the team on his back if need be? And Iowa's secondary could play lights out, but if the D-line doesn't get any pressure on the opposing QB's, they are going to get burned....you can't cover someone forever.
There are just too many "unknowns" heading into this season. The good thing is: the Hawks will be flying a little under the radar. The potential is there for a nice season. I'm anxious to see how it plays out.
You're absolutely right with the remark about what happens if Coker gets injured. That's why I feel it's absolutely CRITICAL that a 2nd Iowa RB can step up and take some carries away from Coker. If somebody is capable of sharing the load, that reduces the chance of Coker getting injured.
As for the hypothetical about McNutt being the only receiving threat ... I'm sorry but that simply won't be the case. When Keenan Davis was given the chance ... he flashed just as we needed him to. Now you have to consider that not only is Keenan Davis a year more experienced, but also he's going to have Vandenberg throwing him the ball. I'm not certain that Hawk fans appreciate the significance of this latter point. Vandenberg has already been throwing to Keenan Davis for years .... the two ALREADY have a great chemistry ... and that equates to Vandenberg already trusting and feeling comfortable with Davis. Keenan Davis was the bright point of the spring scrimmage for a reason ... and we'll only see more of it come the season.
Lastly, as for the remark about the DL, there are a few points that give me reason to have hope:
1. We'll be facing max-pro a lot less. Because of the threat posed by Ballard, Klug, and Clayborn we say max-pro ALL THE TIME in '10 ... and that really slowed or pass rush. Although we don't have the same big-named guys ... our "no-namers" will at least be facing fewer blockers.
2. Let's assume for a moment that our starting DL will be Daniel, Daniels, Bigach, and Binns. That's a decent core group AND both Daniels and Binns have proven abilities to get penetration. If we don't face max-pro ... that means then that we'll only need one guy to take on a double-team and then the rest of our guys will only be contending with man-blocking. Daniels is a guy who is capable of beating man-blocking more often than not.
3. In addition to the aforementioned starters, that then implies that we'll likely be having guys like Alvis and Carl Davis as guys coming off the bench to give the group a "spark." I really like what those young guys bring to the table. Furthermore, since they're likely NOT going to be asked to be every-down players .... they will be able to focus more on playing fast and playing with confidence.
4. And, mind you, Alvis and Davis won't be the only guys contributing either. My guess is that we'll AT LEAST see a guy or two out of the group of Hardy, Heissel, Cooper, Nardo, and Forgy contribute too. The immediate implication there is that the guys on the DL might be a little bit more fresh than we usually see (although maybe not quite as talented and/or polished as last year).
5. Although our safeties aren't necessarily as experienced, our secondary seems MORE capable in 2011 of pulling off multi-DB looks. Against Mizzou, Prater, Hyde, Miller, Castillo, and Bernstine all received valuable reps in multi-DB sets (nickel/dime packages) ... AND they looked pretty good too! Given that all of those guys will have even more experience entering 2011 AND we'll also be having guys like Lowery, Sleeper, and Lomax/Campbell entering the picture ... it doesn't seem like it will necessarily take too much for the secondary to become a team strength for us.
6. In addition to facing a lot of max-pro in '10, another thing that hurt the Iowa DL in '10 was the fact that the group of LBs either lacked talent or experience in the latter part of the season. As a result, our LBs got pretty torched in coverage ... particularly in the latter part of the season. In 2011, things look a lot brighter for the Hawks at LB in coverage. While everybody yaps about Kirksey being undersized ... the off-shoot there is that he's also earned a lot of praise for his cover-skills. In fact, in playing time as a back-up that he received in '10 ... he looked pretty good in coverage! Thus, when you combine Kirksey with a healthy Morris and Nielsen .... you're looking a pretty darn solid group of LBs. I frankly believe that the '11 LBs will be as good, if not better, than our '08 LBs were in coverage.
7. Not that Iowa would necessarily choose to blitz much ... however, Morris appears to be pretty natural when blitzing the QB. Morris is so quick and fast and he gets to the QB so quickly ... I anticipate that Iowa will flash the blitz on occasion simply to keep the opposing O guessing. The threat of the blitz itself will help out the DL and its use will contribute to Iowa's ability to pressure the QB.
8. You don't always need to get sacks either. Iowa didn't get that many sacks in '08, however we forced so many QB hurries that, in turn, forced a ton of INTs. Given that Iowa's DL does not lack talent and given that Iowa's back 7 should develop to be a pretty good unit in coverage .... I think that the Iowa D is capable of benefitting from a good number of INTs.
9. Lastly, Iowa faced a lot more really veteran QBs in '10. Iowa will be facing more green or less-experienced QBs in '11 and that could give the DL a little bit more "wiggle room" in their development.