So What is your Expectation for Iowa Basketball?

L

longtimer

Well-Known Member
Sitting around bored trying to survive the frigid weather so I thought i would post something. Decided to use the 10 years + that Fran has been at Iowa to determine what is the standard we should expect from Iowa basketball. So here goes

McCaffrey is 207-149. Has finished the year 2 times ranked 25th in the AP poll

Big Ten Record
10-11 10TH
11-12 7TH
12-13 6TH
13-14 6TH
14-15 3RD tied with 3 teams
15-16 3rd tied with 3 teams
16-17 5th tied with 4 teams
17-18 11th
18-19 6th
19-20 5th tied with 4 teams
20-21 6th current
Didn't include Big Ten Tournament records which were not pretty

NCAA In the tournament 4 times (if you count a play in game)
NCAA Record 3-4 (no sweet 16s)

So if Fran was to retire tomorrow (which he isn't) and you were interviewing for a new coach would you be OK with another 10 years like this?
 
In short no. 4 NCAAs (if you count the play in game) in 11 years is not good. However, he would had another one last year if covid did not hit. So, I would put him at 4 currently (I don't count the play in game).

If they get in this year (likely) that would be 5 (again I don't count the play in year) in 11 years. Still not great.

I think Iowa should be able to be in the NCAAs at least 3 out of every 4 years. If you take out the first 2 years of rebuilding a horrible program....it gets close under my standards......5 in the last 8 (again, I don't count the play in game).

No top end success thus far in the NCAAs. Horrible in the BTT. No regular seasons titles.

That said, I'm against firing him at this point in time because if they get to the tournament this year, that makes the last 3 years in the NCAAs (they would have been there last year).

But, I think Fran has trouble brewing ahead if he can't sustain any top end success with this team to finish this year.
 
longtimer said:
Sitting around bored trying to survive the frigid weather so I thought i would post something. Decided to use the 10 years + that Fran has been at Iowa to determine what is the standard we should expect from Iowa basketball. So here goes

McCaffrey is 207-149. Has finished the year 2 times ranked 25th in the AP poll

Big Ten Record
10-11 10TH
11-12 7TH
12-13 6TH
13-14 6TH
14-15 3RD tied with 3 teams
15-16 3rd tied with 3 teams
16-17 5th tied with 4 teams
17-18 11th
18-19 6th
19-20 5th tied with 4 teams
20-21 6th current
Didn't include Big Ten Tournament records which were not pretty

NCAA In the tournament 4 times (if you count a play in game)
NCAA Record 3-4 (no sweet 16s)

So if Fran was to retire tomorrow (which he isn't) and you were interviewing for a new coach would you be OK with another 10 years like this?
Click to expand...


What we see now, is what we have seen over and over and over. I don't expect a deep run into any tournament. This team is flacid. They lose their nerve, they suddenly can't shoot, they choke. And Fran does not add value after 8 minutes to go in the game. If you told me some day that Fran had a drinking problem and needed to get sober, I would believe you.
 
Since teh Aaron white days its been better...

this year has been quite the disappointment however...

At least its entertaining basketball.
 
There's minimum expectation, then there's the ceiling. Two very different things.

Ceiling: Maybe this is cliché by now, but I'd say look at Wisconsin. I feel we can get to that. Iowa isn't gonna reload year in and year out, but Bo Ryan had those guys up to Elite status IMO by the time he left. Two straight FF's including a title game appearance. Lot of NCAA 2nd round and Sweet 16 before then. I see no reason Iowa couldn't do that. (Not sure we can do this under Fran IMO - just don't defend the way we need to).

Minimum expectation (for a coach to deserve to keep his job here): Make the NCAA Tournament and win the first round more often than not. Top half of the conference most years. Tom Davis did this. Steve Alford fell short. Fran is doing just enough IMO.

The February meltdowns are getting old, though. Being projected as a high seed in January and tumbling down the rungs by March - that's maddening. If only we could maintain a decent level of play the last month of the season, then things look a lot different. A lot of 2-4 seeds instead of 7-10. Then maybe we look more like Wisconsin.
 
longtimer said:
Sitting around bored trying to survive the frigid weather so I thought i would post something. Decided to use the 10 years + that Fran has been at Iowa to determine what is the standard we should expect from Iowa basketball. So here goes

McCaffrey is 207-149. Has finished the year 2 times ranked 25th in the AP poll

Big Ten Record
10-11 10TH
11-12 7TH
12-13 6TH
13-14 6TH
14-15 3RD tied with 3 teams
15-16 3rd tied with 3 teams
16-17 5th tied with 4 teams
17-18 11th
18-19 6th
19-20 5th tied with 4 teams
20-21 6th current
Didn't include Big Ten Tournament records which were not pretty

NCAA In the tournament 4 times (if you count a play in game)
NCAA Record 3-4 (no sweet 16s)

So if Fran was to retire tomorrow (which he isn't) and you were interviewing for a new coach would you be OK with another 10 years like this?
Click to expand...
no
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
In short no. 4 NCAAs (if you count the play in game) in 11 years is not good. However, he would had another one last year if covid did not hit. So, I would put him at 4 currently (I don't count the play in game).

If they get in this year (likely) that would be 5 (again I don't count the play in year) in 11 years. Still not great.

I think Iowa should be able to be in the NCAAs at least 3 out of every 4 years. If you take out the first 2 years of rebuilding a horrible program....it gets close under my standards......5 in the last 8 (again, I don't count the play in game).

No top end success thus far in the NCAAs. Horrible in the BTT. No regular seasons titles.

That said, I'm against firing him at this point in time because if they get to the tournament this year, that makes the last 3 years in the NCAAs (they would have been there last year).

But, I think Fran has trouble brewing ahead if he can't sustain any top end success with this team to finish this year.
Click to expand...
If you don't count the play in game it means it's harder to make the tournament now because without the play in games there would be more at large bids. There is a 50/50 chance we would have gotten in as an 11 seed if there wasn't a play in game. I would bet a lot of money we would have, but there is no way to know.

If we make the tournament this year it will be 6 of the last 8. That sounds pretty decent. The biggest problem with Fran's resume is it will always look weaker than it is due to the program he took over. The next month is really important for the rest of his career here. If he can finish strong and Luka can get player of the year, the hype will hopefully get us to the next level. Also the class of 5 black kids will help change the image of the program and open up new recruiting doors too.
 
PCHawk said:
If you don't count the play in game it means it's harder to make the tournament now because without the play in games there would be more at large bids. There is a 50/50 chance we would have gotten in as an 11 seed if there wasn't a play in game. I would bet a lot of money we would have, but there is no way to know.

If we make the tournament this year it will be 6 of the last 8. That sounds pretty decent. The biggest problem with Fran's resume is it will always look weaker than it is due to the program he took over. The next month is really important for the rest of his career here. If he can finish strong and Luka can get player of the year, the hype will hopefully get us to the next level. Also the class of 5 black kids will help change the image of the program and open up new recruiting doors too.
Click to expand...
Ya, I just feel that the play-in game is just that....a play-in game. If you don't win it, your not in it. If that makes it harder, so be it.
 
PCHawk said:
So that year was extra bad than because Fran couldn't even make the NIT.
Click to expand...
I would look at this way. Purgatory.....between Heaven and Hell. Ok, the NIT is not exactly hell. Certainly better than NIT, but not a member of club either.

I would say below expectations with losing said play-in game.
 
The definition of “play in game”, has three problems. First, it isn’t a play in game. It has been labeled as such by posters who wish to denigrate the achievement of entering the tournament. It’s a low seed, nothing more nothing less. Secondly, it may come as a revelation to some that a team with this seed is eligible to win a national championship. Third, there are a whole bunch of teams who are judged as not eligible to play in this post season tournament. It starts with the traditional “ first 4 out”. Accept reality.
 
When 68 teams make the tourney every year, we should be one of them.

I hate that we always have to try and be Wisconsin. They should be trying to be us.

This team is like all the rest in Frans tenure, just with a little more talent. It cant guard and goes through scoring droughts and struggles late in the season. We have seen this every season.
 
It's weird that a team struggles late in the season, it's almost like that's when they play most of their hard games or something.
 
Motigerhawk said:
When 68 teams make the tourney every year, we should be one of them.

I hate that we always have to try and be Wisconsin. They should be trying to be us.

This team is like all the rest in Frans tenure, just with a little more talent. It cant guard and goes through scoring droughts and struggles late in the season. We have seen this every season.
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Just out of curiosity, why do you think Iowa should be better than Wisconsin? Do you just think they should be at this exact moment in history? Or should Iowa be better all the time, regardless of how Wisconsin does? What if Wisconsin gets lucky and hires the next coach K and becomes the best program in the nation for the next 2 decades? Does that mean Iowa should still somehow be better? I think Wisconsin is going through a great time in their history (one that won't last forever) and it's extremely unrealistic to assume we should be better than what they've done the last decade or so.
 
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InGoodCo said:
It's weird that a team struggles late in the season, it's almost like that's when they play most of their hard games or something.
Click to expand...

True, but we play some tough teams early and its not like every B1G team struggles like we do EVERY season. Sure teams go through their ups in downs different seasons, but when they have good teams, they do not fall apart like we do late in the season.
 
PCHawk said:
Just out of curiosity, why do you think Iowa should be better than Wisconsin? Do you just think they should be at this exact moment in history? Or should Iowa be better all the time, regardless of how Wisconsin does? What if Wisconsin gets lucky and hires the next coach K and becomes the best program in the nation for the next 2 decades? Does that mean Iowa should still somehow be better? I think Wisconsin is going through a great time in their history (one that won't last forever) and it's extremely unrealistic to as we should be better than what they've done the last decade or so.
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I was responding to an earlier post about how we should look like Wiscy. We hear this in football and now BB. It is getting old. Wisconsin used to try and be Iowa and they have surpassed us. I want to get back to where Wiscy fans are saying we should be like Iowa. Like in the past.
 
Motigerhawk said:
I was responding to an earlier post about how we should look like Wiscy. We hear this in football and now BB. It is getting old. Wisconsin used to try and be Iowa and they have surpassed us. I want to get back to where Wiscy fans are saying we should be like Iowa. Like in the past.
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Because of where Wisconsin is, in order to do that we would either have to become a blue blood or have them drop down some. One is unrealistic and the other we have no control over.
 
Motigerhawk said:
True, but we play some tough teams early and its not like every B1G team struggles like we do EVERY season. Sure teams go through their ups in downs different seasons, but when they have good teams, they do not fall apart like we do late in the season.
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I'm just saying, playing in a conference like the B1G has that effect on a whole lot of teams, not just Iowa. They fade down the stretch because that's when they are playing their toughest competition. Basically the entire conference season is like playing 1 NCAA team after another. Towards the back half, teams are injured, teams are scouted, every team knows them better than they know themselves. If you take a look at most teams in the conference over the last decade, I would imagine most of them have declining records down the stretch. That's just kind of the college game in general. I am not making excuses for Iowa. F that - win games, I don't care about that. But, it's also pretty easy to diagnose. Teams don't play as well when they are playing other teams that are as good or NCAA worthy. I was hoping that was different for Iowa this season, so far it's not been... .but hey, they have 8 games and a conference tournament that they could still turn it around and that would actually be really impressive considering what we know about the schedule.
 
Motigerhawk said:
I was responding to an earlier post about how we should look like Wiscy. We hear this in football and now BB. It is getting old. Wisconsin used to try and be Iowa and they have surpassed us. I want to get back to where Wiscy fans are saying we should be like Iowa. Like in the past.
Click to expand...

Ain't happening, bud. Wisconsin-fan had a point about being better than Iowa, Iowa-fan does not have the same counterpoint.

Wisconsin is a much bigger state population wise than Iowa and it only has one power conference level school. Madison is also objectively nicer than Iowa City. We're all partial to IC, but Madison is nicer. They have way more recent success off of which to recruit as well. Multiple recent Final Fours. Multiple Rose Bowls. Current basketball recruits weren't even alive the last time Iowa made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. That is really pathetic.

And Herb Kohl has thrown a lot of money into their facilities.
 
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